Week 1 NFL Best Bets and Props:

After a long offseason, Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season has finally arrived. It’s time to take advantage of soft lines for some NFL best bets in the player prop market while books slowly adjust to the changing landscape across the league.

My name is Matt Williams, and I will be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams and join my Substack at MattWi77iams/Substack.

 

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New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, 1:00 pm ET

In 2023, the Cincinnati Bengals conceded the most receptions to opposing tight ends in the NFL, and they did nothing this offseason to remedy that deficiency.

So I am going to invest in Hunter Henry’s Over 2.5 Reception prop this Sunday. Henry hit this mark in 57% of games last season with arguably the worst quarterback in football.

Now Henry will have veteran Jacoby Brissett handling things behind a fairly shaky offensive line. This should lead to plenty of quick check-down opportunities in the backfield and to the tight end.

In addition, I expect New England to be playing from behind most of the game, which should lead to a pass-friendly game script.

NFL Best Bet: Hunter Henry Over 2.5 Receptions (-125)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, 1:00 pm ET

I am beyond excited to see what Darnell Mooney can do under offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.

Robinson loves to utilize pre-snap motion, which Mooney is tailor-made for. This will give him some built-in separation from the defender and allow him to create some big plays.

We have seen glimpses of this in the past, but now that Kirk Cousins (and not Justin Fields) is delivering the ball, we might finally see a Darnell Mooney breakout.

I am targeting what I project to be soft early-season lines for Mooney that do not properly reflect his role in the Atlanta offense. 

The fact that Kyle Pitts is dealing with a possible hamstring issue only further increases our ceiling and secures our floor.

NFL Best Bet: Darnell Mooney Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Would take up to Over 34.5 Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1:00 pm ET

The New Orleans Saints defense allowed the 5th-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks last season. Two of those performances came at the feet of Bryce Young, who rushed for 40 and 34 yards against his division rival.

On Sunday, Young’s rushing yards prop is listed at just 9.5 yards, a mark he cleared in 10 of 16 games in 2023.

Considering Young’s success against New Orleans in his brief career, the Over makes for a slam-dunk investment and possible ladder consideration.

NFL Best Bet: Bryce Young Over 9.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Would take up to Over 11.5 Rushing Yards

For more NFL Week 1 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 1 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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