Week 1 NFL Predictions:

Week 1 of the NFL season has arrived. We’ve had a lot of time to stare at these lines, which have moved around a bit as limits have increased and bettors are willing to start using their bankrolls on professional football. A lot of people won’t tie up money until the games are getting ready to go and, well, the games are getting ready to go.

My plan is to write up my NFL best bets on Tuesdays this season, both to spread out the number of best bet articles we have, but also to try and jump on some early-week numbers. There will be some guessing in terms of injury situations this early in the process, but sometimes that can help you get some line value if you read the tea leaves right.

 

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Here are my Week 1 NFL best bets:

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9/3, 9:15 p.m. PT

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-4, 44.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Unfortunately, most of the 4.5s in the market were gone at time of writing, but I think we could see them pop back up as we get closer to kickoff. This is a spot where I really do like the Titans, who looked great in the preseason and have surrounded Will Levis with some strong weapons. It is a bummer that DeAndre Hopkins will miss the start of the season, but Levis has two good options in Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, plus Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard are both viable pass catchers.

The Titans have really upgraded the offensive line with Lloyd Cushenberry at center and JC Latham at left tackle. I also think they’ve upgraded offensive minds by having Brian and Bill Callahan on the sidelines. Mike Vrabel was a hard-nosed leader of men and is a good football coach, but I think the Titans have been held back by their lack of offensive creativity. OC Nick Holz has also worked for a couple of quality offensive minds in Jon Gruden and Doug Pederson.

I get it – the Bears might be really good. Caleb Williams might be a star from the jump and Chicago isn’t lacking at the skill positions. The defense was excellent after Montez Sweat joined the roster. But, Shane Waldron’s offenses were not impressive in Seattle and he squandered some top-tier skill-position talent. Eric Washington is a first-year DC with the Bears and his two years in Carolina were a mixed bag.

Maybe the Bears are ready for the big time and Williams will shine. But, I think the Titans are undervalued and have some really good veteran players that elevate the ceiling of the team.

Pick: Titans +4

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 48)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

There would be a lot of situational factors at play if this was any game other than the opener for the Cardinals, but they can set everything up just the way that they want it for this trip to Western New York to take on the Bills. Arizona has the next three games at home and the weather won’t be a factor, so I don’t mind the travel one bit in this spot.

What I worry about the most is that I’m overvaluing the offense with a healthy Kyler Murray, but those fears are quelled by what I think about the defense. I wish that Darius Robinson was available because I can’t wait to see what he does as a pass rusher in Jonathan Gannon’s scheme. However, the Cardinals should make strides in some key areas.

They were dead last in third-down conversion rate against and only mustered 17 takeaways. To fix that, they drafted Max Melton out of Rutgers and signed Sean Murphy-Bunting as a free agent. They picked up some help on the defensive line, including Justin Jones, and signed Mack Wilson. Again, it is unfortunate that Robinson and BJ Ojulari are hurt, but remember, the Bills lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis from last year’s offense, so the lack of a pass rush may not hurt quite as much here.

Josh Allen is a great QB, but I don’t think he has a lot of “blow the other team out” potential early in the season. If Keon Coleman is a dude and somebody else assists the two tight ends, then the Bills may look different, but I can’t see that being the case right away. The offense definitely took a step up when Joe Brady took over as the OC, but the talent level is lower on that side of the ball.

To me, 6.5 is just a little bit too much here, as the Cardinals should be improved in Year 2 under Gannon and I’m pretty sure that the Bills are not as good as last year’s version.

Pick: Cardinals +6.5

NFL Teaser of the Week

Bengals -2 / Cowboys +8.5

I’ll try to do this when there’s a teaser that lines up to my liking and we’ve got one this week.

We’ll start with the Bengals. I know a lot has been made of Zac Taylor’s issues to start the season, but he hasn’t had a fully healthy Joe Burrow for a few of those Week 1 tilts or he’s faced a high-quality opponent. Well, this year, he has a healthy Burrow and gets what will most likely be the worst team in the NFL.

On the Cowboys side of things, I’m not sure why there should be a high degree of confidence in a Deshaun Watson-led offense with injury problems on the offensive line, especially at the tackle position, running away and winning a game by two scores. Sure, it was almost all bad news for the Cowboys during training camp, especially when it came to the optics of the CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott contracts, but this is still a good football team going to the newly-renamed Huntington Bank Field on the shores of Lake Erie.

The goal of a teaser is to grab as many key numbers as possible and both 3 and 7 are right there for the taking in these two games. The total has also dropped for Cowboys/Browns, suggesting that points will be at a premium and I don’t mind getting six points added to the Dallas side.

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