Week 1 NFL Predictions
We had a full slate of college games last week and even a couple on Sunday, but nothing beats watching college football for 12 hours on Saturday and then waking up and watching another nine hours of NFL football on Sunday. The NFL is back this week beginning on Thursday night with the Eagles and Cowboys, so let’s get to the bets that TSI indicates there’s still value on after these lines have been up all summer.
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers, O/U 45.5
This Week 1 clash will take place in Brazil, which automatically caught my attention when I started analyzing these numbers. I think playing in unfamiliar territory for both teams will play a factor in the tempo and efficiency these teams play with, and they aren’t super fast-paced, light-up-the-scoreboard teams to begin with. I’m not necessarily a huge trends guy, but international games in the NFL have hit the Under about 55% of the time, which at least raises my eyebrow. TSI projects just 44 points here, and 1.5 points of value in the NFL is huge, especially getting above the key numbers of 44 and 45. Both of these teams averaged 23 points per game last year, while only allowing an average of 19.5. In divisional games in 2024, Kansas City was 5-1 to the Under by 6.5 points per game (LA was about 50/50). I think this will be a slogfest, so give me the Under at a great number.
NFL Pick: Under 45.5
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5), O/U 47.5
Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons will host Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday in what TSI is expecting to be a high-scoring affair. TSI projects 50 points in this game, which is well above the current market of 47.5, getting through key numbers of 48 and 49. Last season, these teams were a combined 11-1 to the Over in divisional games, going over by a combined 26.7 points per game. In two games last season against each other, they totaled 57 and 60 points in regulation. I think this is a great number south of 48, so I’m going to fire on the Over.
NFL Pick: Over 47.5
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