Week 10 NFL Best Bets from Will Hill:

Here are my Week 10 NFL best bets:

 

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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (+3.5)

The Saints fired head coach Dennis Allen on Monday, and will now host the Falcons in the first game since making the coaching change. When these teams met in Week 4, the Falcons were favored by 2.5- that game was in Atlanta, this game is in New Orleans. Granted the Saints deserve to be downgraded, but you’re getting an extra point through a key number, and flipping home field. In the first meeting, the Falcons won, but didn’t cover, despite getting two non-offensive touchdowns. I think this is great buy-low spot on a Saints team that most bettors want no part of, after an embarrassing loss to the Panthers. I’ll take the 3.5 in hopes of getting the boost teams often get when they fire their head coach.

Week 10 NFL Best Bet: New Orleans Saints +3.5

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Great spot for the 49ers here, off of a bye, getting healthier with the expected return of star running back Christian McCaffrey. While the 49ers are rested, their opponent, the Buccaneers, are not. The Bucs played Monday night, on the road, and now have a short week just 6 days after losing a heartbreaking game in overtime to the Chiefs. Not only did the game go to overtime, but the Bucs, who are without their two best wide receivers on offense, played 82 plays on defense. A banged up offense and a tired defense is not a good combo vs a hungry and talented 49ers team that is looking to get their season back on track. 

Week 10 NFL Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers -6.5

Joe Burrow 100-1 Offensive Player of the Year (FanDuel)

Joe Burrow threw for another 4 touchdowns and 428 yards on Thursday night vs the Ravens, but the Bengals lost, dropping them to 4-6. Burrow will not have enough team success to win MVP, in all likelihood, but could voters reward his great season with Offensive Player of the Year? Burrow now has 24 TDs/ 4 INTs, to put that in perspective, Lamar Jackson won the MVP last year with 24 TDs/ 7 INTs. It’s been a few years since a quarterback won this award, but from 2015-2018 this award went to a quarterback three times. This is an award with vague criteria, different voters have admitted to having different interpretations. But, at 100-1, backing a high-profile quarterback who has a chance to throw for 40+ touchdowns is a dart worth throwing. 

College Football Bonus Pick:

Georgia at Ole Miss (+2.5; 55)

A lot of factors at play here pointing to an under. Ole Miss running back Henry Parrish Jr, and star receiver Tre Harris are uncertain to play, which would really hamper their ability to create explosive plays on offense. On the other side of the ball, Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has thrown 11 INTs in his last 5 games. I expect head coach Kirby Smart to have a more conservative gameplan on offense because of all the turnovers, considering the lone Georgia loss this year came in Alabama, due to a rash of early giveaways. A banged up Ole Miss offense, and a Georgia offense who will be focused on protecting the ball, i think this game stays under the total.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Georgia/Ole Miss Under 55

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