Week 10 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

Too many NFL games are full of field goals and penalty flags, but the Bengals-Ravens shootout Thursday night in Baltimore displayed what the league can be at its best. Joe Burrow passed for 428 yards and four touchdowns — and lost. I bet Cincinnati +6 and went from a comfortable 21-7 lead midway through the third quarter to the frustration of trailing 35-28 with less than two minutes to go. Burrow’s last touchdown pass and failed two-point conversion throw was good for the cover as the Ravens escaped, 35-34. But it was neither a big bet nor a contest play for me, so it was just a warmup for the real deal. Here are my five Week 10 NFL best bets:

 

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders (-3)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been dynamite for Washington, which is 7-2 straight up and 7-1-1 ATS. Daniels, who’s 5-0 as a favorite, has totaled 2,404 yards (1,945 passing, 459 rushing) while completing 71.5 percent of his passes. He will get a stress test against the Steelers, who rank No. 2 in scoring defense (14.9 ppg) and No. 4 against the run (90.5 yards per game). In his two starts for Pittsburgh, veteran quarterback Russell Wilson has been efficient with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Wilson is not much of a running threat anymore, however, and Najee Harris will handle that workload while attacking a Commanders defense that ranks 29th against the run (143 ypg).

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is off a bye and in the underdog role, plus he has the stronger defense. Tomlin is 20-6-3 ATS as a home ‘dog and, according to Evan Abrams of Action Network, 41-28-1 ATS as a road ‘dog. Pittsburgh is 6-2, with each of the losses by exactly three points, so I’ll take the three points with Tomlin.

Week 10 NFL Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +3

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

Bo Nix has been far less impressive than Daniels as a rookie quarterback, but Nix is 4-1 ATS on the road for the Broncos. The loss was a 41-10 blowout at Baltimore last week, when the Broncos rushed for 122 yards. Denver plans to stay in this game with its defense (No. 3 in scoring at 17.9 ppg) and ground attack. In two games against the Broncos last season, Patrick Mahomes threw three interceptions and led only one touchdown drive as the offense totaled 28 points. Mahomes is certainly capable of producing explosive plays, but the Chiefs are more about grinding it out and sustaining drives, which is why they are in so many one-score games. Kansas City has six wins by seven points or fewer. The Broncos (5-4) have only one loss by more than seven points.

Week 10 NFL Best Bet: Denver Broncos +8

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

With the NFC West up for grabs, San Francisco (4-4) is getting healthy and needs to get to work. It will help to have running back Christian McCaffrey on the field for the first time this season. The 49ers own a 26-6 straight-up record in games McCaffrey has played. McCaffrey’s carries might be limited, but backups Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo should be available. In addition, receivers Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings are expected to return from injuries. Tampa Bay has lost three in a row, with Baker Mayfield throwing seven interceptions in the past four games. Mayfield will miss injured receiver Mike Evans, who’s out again this week. It pains me to play favorites laying more than a field goal, but favorites went 14-1 in Week 9, and I’m confident San Francisco can cover in a high-scoring game.

Week 10 NFL Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers -6.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Cooper Rush is a capable replacement for injured Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, who has not played great anyway. Prescott was intercepted eight times in the first eight games. Rush has a career 5-1 record as a starter for Dallas, which scored 20 points or more in five of those games. A couple of trends indicate this might not be easy for the Eagles — the Cowboys are 17-1 in their past 18 division home games, and Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts is 0-3 in Dallas. As for important personnel matters, the Cowboys are expecting edge rusher Micah Parsons and receiver CeeDee Lamb to play.

Week 10 NFL Best Bet: Dallas Cowboys +7.5

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-1)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

A week after losing a shootout in Buffalo, the Dolphins are on the opposite side of the country in a tough scheduling spot. For what it’s worth, ESPN showed a trend that is not meaningless — Miami is 0-8 straight up and 1-7 ATS in its past eight games as a ‘dog. The Dolphins are dangerous offensively when at full strength, yet the Rams can effectively counterpunch with quarterback Matthew Stafford, running back Kyren Williams and receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The Rams have been better defensively during a three-game winning streak while allowing 18.3 points.

Week 10 NFL Best Bet: Los Angeles Rams -1

For more NFL Week 10 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 10 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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