Week 10 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:
I never thought I could do worse in an NFL weekend of betting than I did in Week 8, but I managed to equal it in Week 9. For anyone who has followed me over the last few seasons at VSiN and has come to trust my judgment and analysis, I apologize for this unprecedented skid. But please understand that we have lost together, and it happens, and hopefully, it’s in the past. For whatever reason, the methods I’ve relied upon historically do quite well in the NFL have turned on me the last two weeks. It almost came to a head for me on Monday night. After watching Baker Mayfield drive 70 yards in the rain without his top wide receivers against the league’s top defense to take a game Over the total with 30 seconds left, I thought that it might be best for me to take a week or two off, in hopes of better seeing the games as I usually do. In the end though, I figured if things rebound as normal, I would miss it. So back to the grind we go, digging deep into the Week 10 action, hoping to improve on a 37-39-2 ATS (48.7%) season record. I hope the idea that I studied extra hard and actually like more games than usual doesn’t backfire. Let’s look at my Week 10 NFL best bets.
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Cincinnati at Baltimore
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
I would have to say, that if there is any single game this week that boasts some of the most prominent team and starting quarterback tendencies in play, it would have to be this divisional clash between a pair of AFC titans. The Ravens are coming in off a huge “flex your muscles” win over the Broncos, yet there is reason to be leery of them in this rivalry game.
First off, this is a dog-dominated series typically, with underdogs 7-3 ATS in the last 10 of the series at Baltimore. Head coach John Harbuagh’s team has struggled in the role of divisional home favorite as well, going 24-13 SU but 12-24 ATS as a divisional home favorite since 2010. More on that aspect, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson is 23-11 SU & 12-21 ATS as a single-digit home favorite since 2018.
This is a less than opportune spot to lay points in that this Ravens’ defense has not lived up to the standard set by their predecessors as well, as they are allowing 22.7 PPG and are dead even in holding opponents to their season-effective averages. If that happens here, Cincy is due for about 26 points, a very good projection for a 6-point road dog. Plus, Cincinnati’s head coach Zac Taylor is on a 12-6 SU and 14-4 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%, and QB Joe Burrow is on a 15-2 ATS run as an underdog of +3 to 7 points.
If all that doesn’t convince you yet, consider that on TNF recently, road teams have been on a roll lately, 41-29-2 ATS (58.6%) in the last 72, and divisional hosts are just 13-21 ATS in the last 34. Oh, and one other thing…remember I did say this was a massive trend game; this is a rematch from 10/6, and Cincinnati: 14-13 SU and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 rematch opportunities, while Baltimore is just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 rematch home games.
Week 10 NFL Best Bet: I see enough here to back Cincinnati +6 on TNF
Buffalo at Indianapolis
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Boy, watching the Colts struggle to move the ball with QB Joe Flacco last Sunday night was very frustrating, especially considering how well they played defensively. To me, it looked like Flacco was lost and just hoping to get rid of the ball so we wouldn’t get clobbered. At his age and recent experience level, it is possible he’s a little gun-shy. He faces another tough defense this week in Buffalo, although this game is at home. To be quite honest, the line looks a little fishy to me.
With bettors at DK racing in droves to get on the Bills, I’m going to stay away from it. That said, this total does look pretty appetizing to me, as both defenses are sharp, and Bills’ QB Josh Allen has been one of the most reliable Under plays on the road throughout his career. In fact, Buffalo’s Josh Allen is 33-18 Under the total on the road since 2018. For 2024, Buffalo’s road games have totaled a consistent 41, 45, 43, and 41 points, and those games were against teams with much better offensive attacks than this current Indy team is demonstrating right now.
Week 10 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go UNDER 47 in Buffalo-Indianapolis
Pittsburgh at Washington
Going back through the log of Washington’s season thus far, the list of opponents faced so far only includes one team with even reasonably good defensive numbers, that being Chicago. And if you recall, the Bears pretty much stifled the Commanders’ offense until the final play Hail Mary.
This week’s game against Pittsburgh will be the best defense that rookie QB Jayden Daniels has faced to date. It will be a massive test for him, and it’s heightened by the fact that the Steelers are rested coming off of their bye week. They are on a seven-game post-bye week game winning streak, as well as a four-game ATS winning streak in such games. They are also 17-7 SU and 18-6 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013, and their head coach Mike Tomlin is on a 27-19 SU and 32-12 ATS run as a single-digit underdog.
Getting back to Daniels, this is typically a part of the season where rookie QBs might start to struggle if they haven’t already. Since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled worst is in weeks 10-15, as they are just 96-144 SU and 101-129-10 ATS (43.9%) in that time span. Pittsburgh has shown some nice offensive growth with QB Russell Wilson taking over. I think they can match Washington on that side of the ball and they boast a huge advantage on defense.
Week 10 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Pittsburgh +2.5 as the road dog to Washington
Atlanta at New Orleans
Sunday, 1:00 p.m.
This could be a hard pill to swallow with as hot as Atlanta has been lately and as cold as the Saints have gone, but in firing their head coach, I think New Orleans has been given a breath of fresh air as it readies for this divisional matchup. I don’t think this will be easy for the Falcons, particularly laying points on the road in a divisional matchup with 85% of the bets at DraftKings, hoping for them to continue their surge.
Looking back at recent key trends, Atlanta is 56-45 SU but 37-64 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2012. They are also on a 10-14 SU and 6-18 ATS skid on normal rest (seven days). Believe it or not, there are also some solid analytic points backing New Orleans here. First, a system addressing their recent plunge: NFL teams losing their last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 25-50 SU but 48-26-1 ATS (64.9%) since 2007.
This is also a rematch game from 9/29, a tight contest won by host Atlanta, 26-24. In which case, we are dealing with a pair of the best rematch/revenge trends available: 1) New Orleans is on a 13-1 ATS stretch in revenge games 2) New Orleans is 8-1 SU and ATS in second time around games vs. Atlanta. Sometimes, the best bets are the hardest in the NFL.
Week 10 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go New Orleans +3.5 to at least put a scare into Atlanta
Denver at Kansas City
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
I mentioned in the Washington writeup above that this is the time of year when rookie QBs might start to struggle: Since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled worst is in weeks 10-15, as they are just 96-144 SU and 101-129-10 ATS (43.9%) in that time span. To be honest, in the case of Bo Nix, perhaps those struggles started last week at Baltimore, a tough environment. It could get worse as in later season road games, Week 10-EOY, rookie QBs are just 32-94 SU and 52-72-2 ATS (41.9%).
On top of that, we have a tough line setup for this divisional clash, and since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 18 games, going 18-115 SU and 50-79-4 ATS (38.8%). If Nix thought last week was tough, just wait till Sunday, when he faces the defending champs and their extremely tough defense at Arrowhead. Although they didn’t cover the points on Monday night, there were some obvious signs that this offense is starting to go, hitting the 30-point mark for the first time.
Head coach Andy Reid’s team also qualifies for a unique streak system that doesn’t arise all that often: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion, then being favored in the latter games are 87-18 SU and 69-36 ATS (65.7%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more. I believe the champs are heating up and that they are going to take this emerging divisional rival seriously. Look for a decisive win.
Week 10 NFL Best Bet: Let’s lay the 7.5 points with Kansas City
San Francisco at Tampa Bay
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
How much of a boost is it going to give the 49ers to have RB Christian McCaffrey back in the fold? I’d say more in mindset than probably on the field, but by all intents and purposes, this team is starting to finally resemble the one that won the NFC last year.
On the opposite sideline, last week’s gritty but wasted effort at Kansas City aside, the Bucs aren’t nearly as healthy and as strong as they once were. I think that aspect of this game alone stands to be the difference. With the 49ers rested and off their bye week, I will fall back on a key post-bye week system that I have relied on religiously in recent years as the foundation for my play in this game.
It is simple but very effective: Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 109-45 SU and 92-58-4 ATS since ’99). The Bucs are headed into their bye week after this one, and while there is some conflicting info going the other way on that aspect, I can’t get over the fact that Tampa Bay’s head coach Todd Bowles is on 0-9 SU and 0-7 ATS skid as home underdog of +3 to +7 points. Plus, with 88% of the handle at DraftKings on San Francisco but only 56% of the bets, it would appear to me that there is more sharp action on this game than anything.
Week 10 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go San Francisco (-6) to get a key win at Tampa Bay
New England at Chicago
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Anyone who knows the Chicago Bears should have foreseen the last couple of losses coming. This is a franchise that hasn’t won a Sunday road game in over two years, and they generally tend to struggle when playing any team that is capable offensively. Thankfully, the stars may be aligning this week to get back over the hump with a key home win as the Patriots come to town.
This is another game where it would seem to be more sharp money coming in on the favorite, as Chicago has 80% of the handle backing at DK but only 55% of the number of bets. Getting to the basics about this matchup, Chicago has been a completely different team at home, and head coach Matt Eberflus is on a 6-0 SU and ATS streak at home. We also have that continuously reliable trend for backing rookie QBs like Caleb Williams in this spot, as since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 35-8 SU and 32-10-1 ATS (76.2%).
Don’t forget about the other side of the ledger, as rookie QBs like Drake Maye of the Patriots tend to struggle in late-season road clashes, going 32-94 SU and 52-72-2 ATS (41.9%) in weeks 10-EOY since 2015. The Patriots are on a 0-3-1 ATS skid in road/neutral games, scoring just 12.3 PPG in the process.
Week 10 NFL Best Bet: I’ll lay the 6 points with Chicago in a prime one-week get-right spot
Philadelphia at Dallas
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
For those of you thinking that the loss of QB Dak Prescott meant the death and impossibility of backing the Cowboys, I give you the Cooper Rush story. If you recall, Rush had his moment in the sun back in 2022, when he led Dallas to wins in four of his five starts, advancing his career record as starter to 5-1. Now, I’m not saying that Rush should replace Prescott long-term, but he could give this team a shot in the arm. Let’s face it: Prescott has not played well this season, and perhaps it was time for a brief change. Maybe head coach Mike McCarthy will get back to the business of a balanced offense.
This particular spot has been tremendous for this franchise, as they are on a six-game SU and ATS win streak hosting Philadelphia, and with Prescott as QB, they were on a run of 30-5 SU and 27-8 ATS in divisional games since 2017. The betting public at DK is also giving the Cowboys no chance, with over 83% of the handle and bets in on Philly. This comes despite a brutal trend showing Philadelphia’s head coach Nick Sirianni is 8-3 SU but 0-10 ATS vs. poor teams being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more since 2022. This Eagles’ team isn’t exactly playing like a juggernaut worthy of laying more than a TD on the road either.
Week 10 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Dallas +7.5 to make this rivalry game competitive
Detroit at Houston
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Despite the public’s recent massive string of success in the NFL over the last five weeks at DraftKings, I would venture to guess that if you faded the most public game every week in the NFL over the long term, you would be quite successful. Well, the most popular play for bettors this week is, not surprisingly, the Lions, getting 88% of the number of bets in on their side of the ledger. It isn’t exactly an easy spot for them, laying 3.5 points on the road to a team that was expected to be among the top clubs in the AFC this season. The Texans seemed to be fulfilling those expectations until the hamstring injury to WR Nico Collins about a month ago. He was the league’s top WR at the time and he was placed on IR to miss the next four games. Since then, his team has cooled a bit, going 2-2 SU and ATS after a 4-1 start. They are still a division leader, however, and are expected to get Collins back this week.
Detroit has obviously been very good this season, and the last few seasons with head coach Dan Campbell, and there are many trends and stats to prove it. That said, the teams with the best stats have struggled on Sunday Night Football lately. Take a look: 1) Strangely, the league’s highest-scoring teams have not fared well on SNF of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 11-9 SU but 4-16 ATS (20%) in their last 20 tries against teams not scoring that much. 2) More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 14-25 SU and 16-23 ATS (41%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019. Both of these angles go against the Lions in this one. In addition, home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 18-20 SU and 22-14-2 ATS (61.1%) dating back to 2017. I think the difficulty of this spot for the Lions is being understated.
Week 10 NFL Best Bet: I’ll back Houston as a very live +3.5-point dog in this one
Miami at LA Rams
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Color me suspicious. The Rams are supposedly heating up, and the Dolphins season has seemingly gone to the dumpster, so why in the world is LA laying just 1-point at home in their MNF matchup this week? I hate to use the words “trap game” with the lack of success I have had in the last couple of weeks, but this feels like it to me. And by golly, we have over 70% of the number of bets in on the Rams, but just 51% of the handle that way as of Thursday. Almost as though the sharp money is going the other way.
Perhaps those “in the know” are aware of trends showing that LA Rams head coach Sean McVay is 6-4 SU but 1-8 ATS when his team plays with extra rest since 2022 and just 8-13 SU and 5-14-2 ATS in their last 21 November games.
Or perhaps they are giving consideration to some formidable MNF angles: 1) In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 15-34-2 ATS (30.6%) in the last 51. 2) MNF teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less (Miami) at the time have gone 15-9 ATS (62.5%) in their last 24 tries against teams scoring higher than that. Or 3) Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 36-32 SU but just 24-42-2 ATS (36.4%) in the last 68 MNF games not matching teams with identical records. The Rams are 4-4; the Fins are 2-6. This line doesn’t make sense.
Week 10 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Dolphins +1 to get a win and revive their season for now
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