NFL First Touchdown
Fourteen of the league’s 32 teams head into Week 10 with nine data points in the First Touchdown Scorer market. That means 18 teams have already had their bye weeks and have eight weeks worth of data. Four more teams – Bengals (33.3%), Cowboys (44.4%), Titans (22.2%), Chiefs (44.4%) – will take a break this week.
That also means that with 10 teams under 50% on the season for scoring the game’s first touchdown, we are missing four of them. That could make mismatches a little bit harder to find.
I’ll keep the intro short and sweet this week and get to the meat and potatoes.
You can always access the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker and see what has happened so far this season and make some inferences and subsequently wagers that way.
Let’s look at the first touchdown scorers by position for this season before looking at the NFL Week 10 schedule.
QB: 4 (19)
RB: 5 (80)
WR: 8 (92)
TE: 6 (52)
D/ST: 3 (9)
No TD: 2 (15)
The pace for TE stayed hot once again, as we remain on pace for 100 or more first TDs from TE. Wide receivers had something of a bounce back week, but the bigger stories were QB and D/ST accounting for 25% of the first team TDs last week.
The Texans and Dolphins were the Team No TD members in Week 9 and both have now done that twice this season.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 8/9 (88.9%) |
| Giants | 7/9 (77.8%) |
| Bills | 6/8 (75%) |
| Packers | 6/8 (75%) |
| Broncos | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Eagles | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Jaguars | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Lions | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Rams | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Seahawks | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Steelers | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| 49ers | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Chargers | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Dolphins | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Bears | 4/8 (50%) |
| Browns | 4/8 (50%) |
| Bucs | 4/8 (50%) |
| Cardinals | 4/8 (50%) |
| Falcons | 4/8 (50%) |
| Raiders | 4/8 (50%) |
| Ravens | 4/8 (50%) |
| Texans | 4/8 (50%) |
| Chiefs | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Cowboys | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Panthers | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Bengals | 3/9 (33.3%) |
| Patriots | 3/9 (33.3%) |
| Commanders | 2/9 (22.2%) |
| Titans | 2/9 (22.2%) |
| Vikings | 1/8 (12.5%) |
| Saints | 1/9 (11.1%) |
| Jets | 0/8 (0%) |
The Jets were on a bye, so they didn’t get a chance to improve to 1/9 in this category. We’ll see if they can get there this week against the Browns, who are also off of a bye.
In terms of some recent streaks and miscellaneous notes:
- The Falcons scored the first TD in four of their first five games and have gone 0/3 since
- The only game where the Colts didn’t score first was against the Broncos, who now lead the league in yards per play allowed on defense
- The Chiefs had a run of four straight games with the first TD (and two on their first possession) snapped by the Bills last week
- After scoring first in four of the first five games, the Chargers have only scored first once in the last four
- The Giants have scored on their first possession in four of the last six games
- The Buccaneers have scored first in four of their last six, but haven’t scored on their first possession in any of those games
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) Top Scorers by Team
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 4 | 3 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 4 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 4 | 1 |
| Tyler Warren (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 3 | 2 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 3 | 2 |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE) | 3 | 2 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 3 | 2 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 3 | 2 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 3 | 2 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 3 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (AR) | 3 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 3 | 1 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 3 | 1 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 3 | 0 |
| Raiders No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
This week’s additions: Douglas, Kincaid, Sutton, C. Williams, Harrison, Jacobs. McCaffrey scored first to tie Achane and Henry for the most first team TDs.
With that, let’s get to the Week 10 action and look at some mismatches from 2025 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Week 10 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025
Raiders (50%) at Broncos (66.7%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Falcons (50%) vs. Colts (88.9%) – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (Berlin)
Giants (77.8%) at Bears (50%) – 1 p.m. ET
Bills (75%) at Dolphins (55.6%)
Ravens (50%) at Vikings (12.5%)
Patriots (33.3%) at Buccaneers (50%)
Saints (11.1%) at Panthers (44.4%)
Jaguars (62.5%) at Texans (50%)
Cardinals (50%) at Seahawks (62.5%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Rams (62.5%) at 49ers (55.6%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Lions (62.5%) at Commanders (22.2%)
Steelers (62.5%) at Chargers (55.6%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Eagles (62.5%) at Packers (75%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 10 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry +475, Mark Andrews +1000
Even though the Colts seem to have a good advantage over the Falcons, Atlanta does have a solid defense and it’s in Berlin, so it could be a weird start. Therefore, my first look is at the Ravens, who were 16/19 in this department last season and 15/19 in 2023. Now that Lamar Jackson is back, they should be back on offense.
I screwed up last week and didn’t get the article out in time for Thursday Night Football, where Andrews scored first. With Jackson back, that’s his favorite red zone target and he had two TD grabs last week, plus a couple of rushing attempts. All three red zone target TDs have come with Jackson in the lineup and all four of Andrews’ TDs. Minnesota has allowed four pass TDs in the first quarter and a 77% completion rate.
Henry is just an obvious choice and even at a better price than normal. He’s a machine in this department and the Vikings have allowed 4.8 yards per carry in the first quarter, so they’ve started slow on defense in general this season.
Cleveland Browns: Quinshon Judkins +350, David Njoku +1200
The Browns haven’t shown much of a vertical passing game under Dillon Gabriel, which is both based on the risk-averse nature of the offense, but also the personnel. Easily the two best pass-catchers on the roster are Njoku and Harold Fannin Jr. Well, Fannin missed practice on Thursday and it seems like he’s probably going to miss the game against the Jets.
I guess we’ll see how Tommy Rees does as a play-caller, since I’ve always been a fan of the Kevin Stefanski scripted drive, but the Jets haven’t scored first in any of their eight games, so the Browns seem worth a look.
Judkins is obvious, as he already has 20 red zone attempts and wasn’t even the starter at the beginning of the year. Njoku will get a lot more targets without Fannin and he was on a pitch count last game coming off of a Week 6 injury that cost him the Week 7 game. With the Browns off of a bye, he should be all systems go and a huge part of the offense here.
The Jets have allowed 14 first half TDs this season. The Browns have only allowed six.
Carolina Panthers: Xavier Legette +1500, Ja’Tavion Sanders +2000
Going to take a couple shots here with the Panthers. The Saints have allowed 20 first-half touchdowns this season. The Panthers have allowed 12, but here’s the thing – all 12 have come in the second quarter. Carolina has not allowed a first quarter TD all season. It seems like they have a good gameplan to start things off and then it starts to fall apart in-game.
They do only have two first quarter TD on offense and only six first half TD overall, but this is a bad Saints team that they are facing. Not only have the Saints been shredded in the first half, but it has been via the pass. They’ve allowed seven passing TDs in the first quarter and eight in the second quarter.
I was torn at the TE position between Sanders and Tommy Tremble, but opted for Sanders, even at the shorter price. Tremble only has three targets over the last three games and may be giving up some playing time to Sanders and even Mitchell Evans, who is a Hail Mary shot at +5000.
Legette and Tet McMillan both have 10 red zone targets. McMillan has a far higher target share overall, but it’s clear that Legette’s still viewed as a red zone option.
Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs +450, Amon-Ra St. Brown +500
The Commanders haven’t scored the first TD in a game since Week 3 and that was Marcus Mariota. So it hasn’t really mattered if it has been him or Jayden Daniels, this just hasn’t been a good offense. They’ve only scored three TD in the first quarter this season while allowing six, five of them through the air.
The Commanders have only allowed seven total TD to RB this season, so even though Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have done well in this area over the last 2-3 seasons, it might be a tough fit. The only bummer is that Amon-Ra St. Brown, who leads the team in red zone targets with 14 and six TD, is at such a depressed price for a WR.
Nevertheless, I can’t pass on his matchup with Mike Sainristil, which is one of the week’s biggest mismatches per the Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool. I also can’t pass on Gibbs, arguably the best receiving back in the NFL. He can score a multitude of ways and is fourth in the NFL in red zone carries with 31 and has even given up 19 of them to Montgomery.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article in 2022-23 and the tracker.
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Week 10 content in our Betting Hub.
