Week 11 NFL Best Bets and Props from Mike Somich:

Here are my Week 11 NFL best bets:

 

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Green Bay Packers (-5.5; 40) vs. Chicago Bears

This game has seen interesting line movement from both the lookahead and release on Sunday night. The lookahead was Packers -3 and release on Sunday at Packers -6, they took some money to -6.5 and then dropped to 5.5. The total opened 42.5 and has been bet down to 40. Most of the total movement was based on a possible weather game where winds were expected. Now, the weather does not look as daunting as it did with a 22% chance of rain and 12 MPH winds.

The Bears moved on from their OC this week, which was just an attempt to save Matt Eberflus’ job, but this team already seemed checked out. They brought in Thomas Brown, who is from the Sean McVay tree and had a short stint last year in Carolina before being demoted. He wasn’t effective there, and I don’t expect him to be effective here.

The Packers are coming off the Bye healthy and should be ready to roll in this game. While this is buying the Packers at the peak, I’m more interested in fading a Bears team that has not shown up two weeks in a row for a lame-duck head coach who should not have been brought back. The weather would favor the Packers, the team with the better run game, if that does play out. Let’s lay it here with the better, more motivated team off the bye.

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: Green Bay Packers -5.5

Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5; 44)

This is another interesting line. On Sunday, this opened as high as Falcons -1.5, and the market immediately disagreed. It flipped to Broncos -1.5 in less than an hour, as has been all Broncos money since moving more each time limits have been raised.

I agree with the move; on Sunday’s Ready, Set, Bet, when Matt and I were going through the lines, this was an early bet for me grabbing some Broncos -118 ML, and I still like that side. Atlanta is playing back-to-back road games after struggling in New Orleans last week. Their main issue all season has been the pass rush or lack thereof. They simply cannot get the opposing QB off his spot, and that should allow Bo Nix to throw the ball effectively this week.

By taking the Broncos, you get the better defense, an offense that has a significant edge, and home field with altitude. At 3, this is a lot tougher to play, so let’s get in before that game hits that key number.

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: Broncos -2.5

Prop Plays

Bo Nix Over 207.5 Passing Yards

We targeted this Atlanta passing defense last week, and we are running it back here. Bo Nix has gone over this total in 4 of his last 5, the only game he did not was the Thursday night game against New Orleans which the Broncos won in a blowout. In the last two weeks facing the Baltimore and KC defense, this offensive line held up well, and now you get the lackluster Atlanta pass rush in a game with little to no weather threat.

De’Von Achane Over 62.5 Rush Yards          

It is amazing how different this Dolphins offense looks with Tua in the lineup, and it’s not just the passing game. We’ve seen the run game unlocked as well, and the main benefactor of that is Achane. He has a plus matchup this week versus a Raiders team that has struggled to stop the run during their five-game losing streak, and the game script should play to Miami running the ball as a touchdown favorite as well.

Other Plays:

Drake Maye Over 27.5 Rushing Yards
Detroit Lions -13

For more NFL Week 11 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 11 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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