Week 11 NFL Best Bets from Will Hill:

Here are my Week 11 NFL best bets:

 

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Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-2.5)

A surprisingly feisty Broncos team heads home to host the Falcons on Sunday. The Broncos are coming off of an agonizing loss. A 35-yard chip shot field goal that would have won the game was blocked, as time expired in Kansas City last week. If they had made the kick, one of the big stories this week would have been how much Bo Nix and Sean Payton have exceeded expectations, as they would have already cleared their win total of 5.5. Regardless, I think this is a good spot for the Broncos. They host a dome team, and get to play this game outdoors on grass. They face Kirk Cousins, a quarterback who is known for being sensitive to pressure. The Broncos are near the top of the league in sacks, and sack rate, and should disrupt this Falcons offense. The Falcons have a habit of playing close games that land right around or on the number, so it may be a good idea to find the cheapest money line possible, but either way, I like the Broncos here.

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: Denver Broncos -2.5

Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) at New York Jets

There is a thin line as a bettor between having conviction, which I think is an important characteristic to have, and being stubborn. I thought the Jets would be good. They are not. Still, the market continues to have faith in them, despite the 3-7 record. Last week they closed as 2-point favorites against the Cardinals. After being slight underdogs for most of the week, they got crushed 31-6. The Jets have tried everything—traded future draft picks, fired their head coach, traded more draft picks—none of it has worked. Their opponent, the Colts, are going back to Anthony Richardson at quarterback. Richardson’s stats aren’t pretty, but the big stat we care about as bettors shows that Richardson is 6-1 ATS as a starter this season. I’ll take the points here against a dead Jets team. 

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts +3.5

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+5.5)

Buying low and selling high is typically a good strategy for betting the NFL. There is only one game a week, and overreactions often happen after very impressive or very poor performances. That was as ugly as it gets last week for the Bears, as they were embarrassed 19-3 at home against a Patriots team that had the lowest Over/Under win total heading into the season. The lookahead line was 2.5 just a handful of days ago, and as bad as it looked last week, a 3-point adjustment through a key number is perhaps too much of a reaction. The Bears fired their offensive coordinator this week, as Shane Waldron is out. Thomas Brown will take over. Perhaps a new wrinkle or two will kickstart this lackluster offense. I’ll game the home ‘dog here.

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: Chicago Bears +5.5

College Football Bonus Best Bet

Tennessee at Georgia (-9.5; 48.5)

I’m going back to the well here with a Georgia Under. Their game vs. Ole Miss last week stayed way under the total, and my handicap here is similar to that one. Georgia does not have the usual level of star players at the skill positions. They have simply not replaced Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey, who were both drafted in the top 35 of the draft last April. Quarterback Carson Beck has been very turnover-prone, which I think will encourage Georgia coach Kirby Smart to try to win this game with a conservative game plan on offense and strong defense at home. Both of these teams have been outstanding on defense, and both are in the top 30 in the nation in yards per play allowed. Tennessee has been underwhelming on offense, and now may be without quarterback Nico Iamaleava. I think this not only stays Under, but has a chance to stay way under the total. 

Week 12 College Football Best Bet: Tennessee/Georgia Under 48.5)

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