Week 11 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

It’s a good bet the second heavyweight fight of the weekend will be better than the first. Mike Tyson, 58 and barely able to stay awake past his bedtime, showed up for two rounds of a boxing spectacle with Jake Paul late Friday night. Tyson was sleepwalking for the final six rounds of his unanimous-decision loss. The old ‘dog was not live, and the fight was a disappointment. The top football game of the weekend (Chiefs-Bills) makes my list of best bets for NFL Week 11:

 

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Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

In a scheduling oddity, Pittsburgh is playing its first division game of the season. The Steelers, No. 2 in scoring defense at 16.2 ppg, must find ways to handle the hottest quarterback on the planet. The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson has 22 touchdown passes and one interception in his past eight games. However, Jackson has a 1-3 career record against Pittsburgh while totaling four TD passes and seven picks. Baltimore’s pass defense ranks as the league’s worst, which is good news for Russell Wilson. In Wilson’s three starts, the Steelers have averaged 30.3 points. Pittsburgh is 7-2, with each of the losses by exactly three points, so I’ll take the 3.5 offered by DraftKings.

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5

Minnesota Vikings (-6) at Tennessee Titans

I’ll want to punch myself in the face if this play loses because the Titans (2-7 SU, 1-7-1 ATS) have been poison for underdog players. Tennessee is somewhat appealing due to a defense that ranks second in the league in yards allowed (273.6 per game). Turnover-riddled quarterback Will Levis makes the Titans unappealing. Of course, the Vikings have their own quarterback problems with Sam Darnold, who has thrown five interceptions in the past two games. There is a troubling trend to watch with Tennessee, which has been outscored 125-53 in the second half, including 64-19 in the fourth quarter. (Note: This is my least favorite of the five plays and narrowly made the cut instead of the Browns and Patriots.)

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: Tennessee Titans +6

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-2)

I’m sticking with the Broncos for the second straight week, after they cashed (+8) but snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in a 16-14 heartbreaker in Kansas City. Denver, which ranks fourth in scoring defense (17.7 ppg) and fifth in total defense (295.7 yards per game), sacked Patrick Mahomes four times and has the ability to pressure immobile Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins. The maturity of Broncos quarterback Bo Nix is evident. The rookie completed 67.5 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and one interception in the past four games.

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: DenverBroncos -2

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2)

It’s easy to make a case for Patrick Mahomes in the underdog role, something I did before the Super Bowl in February and got away with it. In this case, I’ll go with Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who’s 3-1 against Kansas City in the regular season. Allen has faced the Chiefs seven times, including the playoffs, and totaled 16 touchdown passes with three interceptions. Buffalo is a confident team riding a five-game winning streak. The Chiefs are pyromaniacs, winning seven games by seven points or fewer, and this time, they will play with fire and finally get burned. Kansas City was lucky to beat two of the AFC’s top quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, but those were home games, and this one is on Allen’s turf.

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: Buffalo Bills -2

Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)

One of the main reasons I bet the Chargers Over 8.5 wins was their soft schedule. Los Angeles (6-3) ranks No. 1 in scoring defense (13.1 ppg) while beating an opposing quarterback lineup of Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston and Will Levis. I do believe the Chargers are legit, mostly due to their defense, the play of quarterback Justin Herbert (11 touchdown passes, one interception) and coach Jim Harbaugh’s strong leadership. Still, Cincinnati is desperate to revive its fading playoff chances, and Joe Burrow will be tough to beat with the help of wideouts Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Bengals are 5-0 ATS on the road this season. Circa Sports is offering the best number on the underdog.

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals +2

For more NFL Week 11 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 11 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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