Week 11 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:

I never thought it would come to me being happy about a 5-5 week in NFL betting, but I actually did feel a sense of relief after winning the Sunday night and Monday night games to even my weekly record and finally gain back some actual momentum. For those of you that have been with me, it was a welcome reprieve after the disasters of Weeks 8-9. My record for the season is now 42-44-2 ATS (48.8%). Keep in mind that last year I finished the season at 58.8% and that if you take away the disastrous two-week stint, I would be 40-28-2 ATS. Unfortunately, I can’t do that, but I do feel a little better now moving forward once again, and I am ready to attack this week head-on. With that in mind, let’s see what I have come up with for my Week 11 NFL best bets after pouring through this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report.

 

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Washington at Philadelphia

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

I love it when I start feeling a certain way about a game, and then all kinds of public trends start coming out against those thoughts. On Thursday morning, as I considered my reasons for backing Philadelphia on TNF, I was suddenly bombarded on X because Philly is on a 0-6 ATS skid at home. No mention, though, that Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 15-2 SU and 11-5 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021 or that NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with a 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS (78.6%) record in their last 14 tries. Just a simple home trend; that’s it. 

There’s also another nice streak system backing the Eagles here: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion and then being favored in the latter games, are 89-18 SU and 69-38 ATS (64.5%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more. In terms of the Commanders, coming off the meltdown versus Pittsburgh on Sunday, Washington’s Dan Quinn is 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS when coming off a non-conference defeat since 2016. 

They are also just 15-28 ATS in their last 43 divisional contests as well as 11-21 and 10-21-1 ATS in primetime since 2013. Finally, there has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 24-22 SU but 15-29-2 ATS (34.1%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 39-25 SU & 37-25-2 ATS (59.7%).

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: I’m going with the red-hot Eagles (-4) to break the home ATS losing skid

Green Bay at Chicago

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

Anyone reading this right now probably knows the generalities of the recent history of the rivalry between Green Bay and Chicago, as Aaron Rodgers claimed to once be an owner of the Bears, and he transferred that on to Jordan Love. However, do you understand that the Packers; winning streak in the series has reached 10 straight, both SU and ATS?! And now, with head coach Matt LaFleur’s team rested and coming out of the bye week and Chicago in the midst of a free fall, why would the streak end here? 

In terms of the bye week, there are actually a pair of systems suggesting the Pack should roll here: 1) Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 110-45 SU and 92-59-4 ATS since 1999, 60.9%). 2) going further as the road favorite vs. divisional opponents. (Record: 33-16 ATS since ’02, 67.3%). On top of that, the Packers are on a 6-1 SU and ATS post-bye week run versus divisional opponents. The overall division success or lack thereof also is a stark contrast here, with GB on a 20-12 ATS run in such games, and Chicago just 8-19 SU and 7-20 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019. The Bears have lost three straight while scoring just 27 total points. They may have some early motivation here to keep this game tight early, but I expect Love & Co. to separate after the half.

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: Let’s lay the 6-points with Green Bay

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

I noted the crazy series trend in the Green Bay-Chicago game above, but there are also some very definitive angles in the Ravens-Steelers rivalry. For instance, did you know that the last seven games of the BAL-PIT rivalry went Under the total? Or how about that the underdog in the last 10 games these teams have played in Pittsburgh is 8-0-2 ATS? Now that both of these teams have been on a roll lately offensively sort of negates that first angle if you ask me, but I am very interested in the second trend. 

Pittsburgh seems to be finding a groove with QB Russell Wilson, who led an impressive come-from-behind upset win at Washington last Sunday. He boasts a 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS record as a home underdog since 2012 and with the Ravens’ defense being “off” this season, More on Wilson and his role as starting QB for the Steelers after a long career: Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 42-70 SU but 63-44-5 ATS (58.9%) when playing as underdogs of 3 points or more. I give him a good shot at playing well in this one. 

I also like the fact that for as well as Pittsburgh is playing, 66% of the handle as of Thursday was on Baltimore: Over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%).

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: I’ll trust a Steelers team playing well as the 3-point home dog

Jacksonville at Detroit

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

This game might be hard to stomach for bettors, but there is just a wealth of information out there indicating that this game might not be as comfortable for the Lions as the line indicates. Let’s face it: they haven’t played well on either side of the ball lately in the last two games. They’ve given up a lot of yards and haven’t run the ball like they are used to. QB Jared Goff also threw five interceptions at Houston. 

As such, this system is in play here: NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 15-15 SU but 7-22-1 ATS (24.1%) when favored in the next contest since 2012. This line spot is ironically also right in the wheelhouse of where the Goff/Dan Campbell combo has actually struggled together historically. Detroit’s Dan Campbell is on a 5-12 SU and 6-11 ATS skid vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33%. Detroit’s Jared Goff is 7-5 SU but 3-9 ATS as a home favorite of more than 7 points since 2018. 

If you need something positive on the Jaguars to make you feel more comfortable, NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 20-34 SU but 35-19 ATS (64.8%) over the last decade-plus. Jacksonville lost 12-7 to Minnesota this past Sunday. Not to be lost on anyone, this is also the most public game of the week, with 93% of the handle at DK backing Detroit and the line hasn’t moved to them at all. Like any game, it could lose, but these are the types of ugly opportunities that system bettors live for.

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Jacksonville +13 at Detroit

Minnesota at Tennessee

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

An understated stat from NFL 2024 finds that the host team playing this week in Nashville boasts the #2 ranking in the entire league in effective defensive yards per play, according to my calculations. Tennessee is just behind Denver in that regard at 4.98 YPP. They actually hold teams 0.64 yards per play below their scrimmage levels offensively. That’s a pretty important stat as they come into this game as a 6-point underdog to a Minnesota team that managed just 12 points against a much-lesser Jaguars’ defense last week. 

Jacksonville actually allows 1.01 more effective yards per play than their divisional rivals. I don’t think there are a lot of people looking at this game giving the Titans a chance to pull an upset here, but to me, this looks like a very tricky spot for the Vikings, especially as the middle game in three straight road contests. It would be easy to overlook Tennessee here and move on to the divisional tilt with the Bears next week. 

At last check, almost 80% of both the handle & bets at DK are in on the Vikings.  Never mind that Minnesota’s Sam Darnold is 4-11 SU and 2-13 ATS in his last 15 starts vs. teams with losing records or that Tennessee has been consistently competitive at home over the last few years. The Titans also seem to be a more capable and less conservative offense with QB Will Levis running the show.

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: I like Tennessee’s chances as the 6-point home dog

Seattle at San Francisco

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

When we last left the Seahawks before their bye week, they suffered a devastating OT loss at home to Matt Stafford & the Rams, their fifth defeat in their last six games. The defense has allowed 29.7 PPG during that skid, putting way too much pressure on Geno Smith & Co. Now, will the week off help them get their bearings? 

Historically, the answer is no, as in post-bye week games, Seattle has lost its last four SU and ATS while also playing poorly in post-bye week divisional games, 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS since 1993. There is also this unique system in play: Play against teams coming off their bye week after a loss to a divisional opponent prior to the bye. (Record: 25-16 SU and 26-12-3 ATS since 2008, 68.4%). 

As a franchise, they tend to get into shootouts against good teams, showing a 19-6 Over mark vs. teams with a better record since 2011. I don’t think the Seahawks want to get into a shootout at San Francisco, as the 49ers are on a 13-1 Over the total surge as home favorite of -3 to -7 points, and have the offense to race past anyone in the league. If you recall, San Francisco smacked Seattle 36-24 back in Week 5, and on the list of best rematch teams, you’ll find the 49ers boasting a 14-5 SU and ATS record in the last 19, as well as 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in the last 14 when having won the initial outing. This is another game where I think the dog hangs around a bit but gets pushed around late.

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: I’ll take the 49ers to cover the -6.5 vs. Seattle

Kansas City at Buffalo

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

I’ve fallen for it before, and I can’t do it anymore. I know Kansas City keeps getting “lucky” to stay undefeated and that, by all rights, Buffalo appears to be the slightly better team right now, but how do you get past a 17-1 ATS trend? If you’re not familiar, Kansas City is 15-3 SU and 17-1 ATS in its last 18 games as a road underdog. The 2x defending champs take a lot of motivation away from people believing they won’t win a game. Their QB, Patrick Mahomes, is on 10-2 SU and 12-0 ATS roll as a road underdog and takes being doubted very personally. His numbers don’t look like much this season, but it sure seems like he is starting to get on a roll, showing ratings of 92+ in three straight games after five straight games of less than 89. 

If you’re looking for more beyond a road dog trend, consider this system backing KC: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS are 22-62 SU but 52-30-2 ATS (63.4%) when playing as road dogs to non-divisional conference foes since 2003. As I said, I’ve seen it before and have lost on multiple occasions when thinking it was finally time for the Chiefs to lose. It’s no wonder that there are 56 % of bets on KC, a good sign historically.

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Chiefs +2 at Buffalo

Cincinnati at LA Chargers

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

I’m not going to call it utter disrespect, but there does seem to be a lingering doubt about what the Chargers are doing, and doing consistently under head coach Jim Harbaugh this season. They are winning the way he said they would when he arrived in town, with a conservative offense focused on the ground game and effective defense. They currently lead the league, allowing just 13.1 PPG. 

In fact, when you look closely at the numbers, you will see that this game offers the biggest defensive mismatch of any game this weekend, and you only have to lay 1.5 points to back the better one. The public isn’t buying in, as they love offense more than defense, and 85% of the handle is actually on the Bengals. Did these people watch the Bungles meltdown at Baltimore last Thursday in what could have been a season-turning win? 

Speaking of which, SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 10-24 SU and 11-23 ATS (32.4%) in their last 34 tries against teams off a win. If you recall, the Chargers are off a 10-point win over the Titans last week and will be hungry to flex their muscles in front of a national audience here.

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: I’m comfortable backing the Chargers (-1.5) to win and cover this one

Houston at Dallas

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

It’s a good bet that a lot of the seats at AT&T Stadium on Sunday will be filled with Texans fans, as it seems that the football world has completely abandoned the Cowboys. Dallas is often the focus of fans across the country, but I don’t think I’ve ever heard it as negative as it is now. Certainly that is an advantage to the Texans, right? Woah…slow down. Which of these teams endured the more painful loss last week, Dallas or Houston, who blew a 16-point halftime lead to the Lions in what would have been a huge victory? 

As it stands now, the Texans can realistically be described as “struggling”, having lost three of their last four games. Besides the fact that underdogs are 3-0-1 ATS in last four of this all-Texas series, if you go through the list of the Monday Night Football trends I list each week in the Analytics Report, you will see that spots like this often prove difficult for teams like Houston. 

Take a look: 1) NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 13-12 SU & 15-9-1 ATS (62.5%) dating back to September 2021. For the record, the last 23 of these games have seen Under the total go 18-4-1 (81.8%) as well, games producing just 37.3 PPG. 2) Laying 7 points or more has not been a good strategy on MNF, as favorites of 7 points or more are 44-15 SU but just 19-38-2 ATS (33.3%) since 2012. And 3) Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 36-33 SU but just 24-43-2 ATS (35.8%) in the last 69 MNF games not matching teams with identical records. If that weren’t enough, Dallas’ recent skid also sets up for a nice system to back them:  NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 20-25 SU but 28-15-2 ATS (65.1%) in their last 45 games versus non-conference foes. There’s enough here for me to believe this one won’t be as easy as it seems.

Week 11 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Dallas getting the +7 points on MNF

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