Week 11 NFL
Welcome to the Week 11 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I analyze the NFL slate through the lens of respected predictive models to see where there is the most consensus and the most disagreement, which is valuable in determining which bets to potentially make and which ones to stay away from if the data is mixed. Using my proprietary model, the T Shoe Index, and comparing it to TeamRankings, FPI, and Sagarin, this is a way to find value in the tight NFL betting market.
Here are the biggest model agreements and disagreements in Week 11.
Note: TeamRankings is a popular sports resource website, FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Note 2: TeamRankings also has the PoolGenius product, a great Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em resource.
Week 11 NFL Odds Model Alignment
Green Bay Packers (-7) vs New York Giants, O/U 42.5
Jaxson Dart is in concussion protocol for the Giants, who announced QB Jameis Winston will start instead. Dart has been playing well in his handful of starts, but Winston is a longtime NFL veteran so I’m not sure an adjustment to the point spread is really necessary here, although the market has reacted to the news.
The average model projection on this game is Packers -5.5 with a variance of a mere 0.4. All four models project a (rounded) spread of Packers -5.5, which tells me the market is adjusting about two points for the Dart/Winston swap. I think that’s too much. Especially getting through a key number of 7, the data is pretty clear the Giants would be the play here. Not to mention the fact that the Packers are 1-3 ATS away from Lambeau and just 3-5 ATS as a favorite this year.
NFL Pick: Giants +7
Week 11 NFL Odds Model Disagreement
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens (-7), O/U 44.5
Lamar Jackson’s in-and-out status has really muddied the waters when trying to properly rate and project this Ravens team. Jackson again left practice this week with an illness and is questionable to play this week (as of the last report I saw). With Jackson, the Ravens have kind of owned Cleveland, winning three of the last five by an average margin of 13.4 points per game.
The average model projection for this game is Ravens -7.8; however, there is a variance of 8.5 points, largely due to how these models are able to navigate the Ravens’ rating since a lot of their data is without Jackson. Personally, I’d make the case that Jackson being out didn’t make their defense suddenly turn terrible, but certainly there’s a butterfly effect of him being out on the offensive side and that affecting the field position and time on the field for the defense. I get it. TSI only projects Baltimore by 4, FPI projects them by 12.5, and Sagarin and TeamRankings are at 7 and 7.5, respectively, so no one really knows. I’m going to pass on this game.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Fridays, my Tuesday NFL best bets, and my Thursday college football model comparison.
