NFL Week 11 best bets and betting odds
The NFL injury reports are longer than CVS receipts this week, as it seems like everybody is hurt in some capacity. And, as we found out on Thursday Night Football with Joe Burrow, some guys are hurt and we don’t even know it. At this stage in a very violent game, nobody is close to 100%, but all we can do is go with the information that we have and make the best decisions possible.
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Here are my favorite Week 11 NFL picks:
(Odds as of November 17, 10:30 a.m. PT)
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-6, 48)
Good news on the injury front has been rather rare this season, but the Cardinals have gotten some in recent weeks with the return of Kyler Murray to practice and then his 2023 debut last week in the win over the Falcons. Was it pretty? Not really, but it was a lot nicer than what the Cardinals had gotten in recent weeks from their offense. Murray accounted for 282 total yards and a rushing touchdown. The passing game showed way more explosiveness with 13.1 yards per reception.
The Cardinals were 18th last week in EPA/play and sixth in Success Rate, a far cry from being 29th in EPA/play and Success Rate like they were the previous nine weeks without Murray. As he moves on from the injury, he should get better with each passing week and I have hope that he’ll mesh better with Drew Petzing than he did with Kliff Kingsbury. He’ll be running Kevin Stefanski’s offense with some tweaks, as Petzing was a longtime assistant on Stefanski’s staffs. Guys like Baker Mayfield and Jacoby Brissett have had career years under Stefanski.
I don’t really have to go into deep detail about what the Texans offense is doing. C.J. Stroud hung 356 yards on the Bengals last week and Houston racked up 544 total yards. Over the last five weeks, Houston is sixth in EPA/play and fourth in Dropback EPA. OC Bobby Slowik might be in demand for a head coaching gig next year and Stroud is moving his way up the MVP odds board.
I could definitely see points in the forecast for this one with no weather concerns and some good QB play.
Pick: Over 48
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 42.5)
The Vikings have been a great story with Josh Dobbs, but I think this week will be a tough one for Minnesota. You’ve got a dome team going out to Denver for a night game with wet and windy conditions. Denver is on a short week, but they just beat the Bills with a last-second win and have actually won three in a row, so Sean Payton has this team going in the right direction.
Denver is 10th in EPA/play on defense since Week 6. Minnesota is third, as the blitz-happy defense for Brian Flores is starting to take hold. In that same span, Denver is just 21st in EPA/play on offense. The Broncos haven’t exactly been winning with offense, though they have scored 24 points in consecutive weeks. They’ve been winning more on the strength of their defense.
With bad weather complicating matters and two defenses that are ahead of the offenses at this stage, I think this is yet another low-scoring primetime game.
Pick: Under 42.5
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