NFL First Touchdown
Two teams have a bye this week in the NFL, including the most successful team in the league when it comes to scoring the first touchdown. Fresh off of their game in Berlin, the Colts, who have scored the first TD in nine of their 10 games, will take a break, along with the Saints, who have scored the first TD in just one of their 10 games. With 15 games on the slate, we should be able to find some good First Touchdown Scorer Picks.
We have several really good games on Sunday, which is a breath of fresh air from some of the weeks we’ve had recently. But, are those good teams good at scoring first? Let’s take care of some housekeeping and then get to this week’s matchups.
You can always access the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker and see what has happened so far this season and make some inferences and subsequently wagers that way.
Let’s look at the first touchdown scorers by position for this season before looking at the NFL Week 11 schedule.
QB: 1 (20)
RB: 12 (92)
WR: 13 (105)
TE: 1 (53)
D/ST: 1 (10)
No TD: 0 (15)
Well, then. RB/WR combined for 25 of the 28 first team TDs last week. Jaxson Dart, David Njoku, who was listed as a pick last week, and Kene Nwangwu of the Jets (KR TD) were the only exceptions in Week 11. This is the first week that we really saw the TE position get no love in this department. We’re still on pace to destroy last season’s total at the TE position, but this was a light week for them.
Everybody scored a TD in Week 11! Huzzah!
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 9/10 (90%) |
| Eagles | 7/9 (77.8%) |
| Giants | 7/10 (70%) |
| Bills | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Jaguars | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Lions | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Packers | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Rams | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Seahawks | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Broncos | 6/10 (60%) |
| Chargers | 6/10 (60%) |
| Dolphins | 6/10 (60%) |
| Bears | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Browns | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Bucs | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Raiders | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Steelers | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| 49ers | 5/10 (50%) |
| Panthers | 5/10 (50%) |
| Cardinals | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Chiefs | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Cowboys | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Falcons | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Ravens | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Texans | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Bengals | 3/9 (33.3%) |
| Patriots | 3/10 (30%) |
| Titans | 2/9 (22.2%) |
| Vikings | 2/9 (22.2%) |
| Commanders | 2/10 (20%) |
| Saints | 1/10 (10%) |
| Jets | 0/9 (0%) |
First and foremost, an apology. I had a function error in the chart for the Eagles, as it was displaying their record scoring on their first possession, not their record of scoring first in the game. That has been corrected and, as you can see, they are the second-best in the NFL this season.
The Jets are still 0-for. That is not a typo or an error.
In terms of some recent streaks and miscellaneous notes:
- The Falcons scored first in 3/4 games before the bye and the game immediately after. They are 0/4 since
- The Bears have not had a passing TD as their first TD since Week 4, when Rome Odunze’s streak went to three games in a row. They’ve had 3 RB and 2 QB runs since.
- As bad as the Browns are, they’ve now scored the first TD in 5/6 games dating back to Week 4
- The Lions have scored the first TD in three straight games, 4/5, and 5/7 games – they’ve scored on their first possession in every game where they’ve scored the first TD
- The Raiders haven’t had a WR first TD since Week 3; they have 2 RB, 2 TE, and 2 No TD since
- WR Parker Washington became the first Jaguars player to notch a second first team TD this season; they’ve scored a TD in all nine games and had eight different players entering Week 10
I’m also tracking players to score at least three first team TDs for their teams. Here it is entering Week 11:
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) Top Scorers by Team
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 4 | 3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 4 | 3 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 4 | 3 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 4 | 2 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 4 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 4 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 4 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Tyler Warren (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Jaxson Dart (NYG) | 3 | 2 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE) | 3 | 2 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 3 | 2 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 3 | 2 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 3 | 2 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 3 | 2 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB) | 3 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 3 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 3 | 1 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 3 | 1 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 3 | 0 |
| Raiders No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
This week’s additions: Taylor, Dart, McConkey, Smith-Njigba, Egbuka. K. Williams, Gibbs, Allgeier, and Jacobs joined the 4-TD Club.
With that, let’s get to the Week 11 action and look at some mismatches from 2025 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Week 11 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025
Jets (0%) at Patriots (30%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Commanders (20%) vs. Dolphins (60%) (Madrid) – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Panthers (50%) at Falcons (44.4%) – 1 p.m. ET
Buccaneers (55.6%) at Bills (66.7%)
Texans (44.4%) at Titans (22.2%)
Bears (55.6%) at Vikings (22.2%)
Packers (66.7%) at Giants (70%)
Bengals (33.3%) at Steelers (55.6%)
Chargers (60%) at Jaguars (66.7%)
Seahawks (66.7%) at Rams (66.7%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
49ers (50%) at Cardinals (44.4%)
Ravens (44.4%) at Browns (55.6%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Chiefs (44.4%) at Broncos (60%)
Lions (66.7%) at Eagles (77.8%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Cowboys (44.4%) at Raiders (55.6%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 11 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Miami Dolphins: De’Von Achane +425, Greg Dulcich +2200
The favorite and a long shot here for Miami in Madrid. The Commanders have given up first TDs to a wide variety of players this season, but they’ve recently been giving them up on the ground more than through the air. That said, Achane was always going to be a pick here, as he has nine first team TDs for Miami over the last season and a half. Jonnu Smith was the only other non-QB last season (Tyler Huntley) with more than one. This season, outside of Achane and two games without a TD, nobody else has more than one.
In the spirit of Smith’s success last season, I’m going to go down the board and avoid Jaylen Waddle and Malik Washington by going with Dulcich. Since Darren Waller went out, the TE position hasn’t been utilized much, but Dulcich does have nine targets in the last two weeks. Julian Hill looks to be out for another week and Tanner Conner, despite having 60 offensive snaps to Dulcich’s 54, only has three targets.
The Commanders have allowed 18 first half TDs this season and seven of the eight that they’ve allowed in the first quarter have been passing scores. Thirteen have been to WR, so Waddle (+600) and Washington (+1200) are both reasonable picks, as the Commanders haven’t scored the first TD in a game since Week 3.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Travis Etienne Jr. +500, Parker Washington +1300
There aren’t a lot of big mismatches this week in terms of teams that excel vs. teams that don’t with scoring the first TD. However, and this may just be a coincidence more than anything, the Chargers have played three 1 p.m. ET kickoffs, so 10 a.m. body clock for them, and they have not scored the first TD in any of them. Their only road game with the first TD was against the Raiders.
The Giants, Dolphins, and Titans all scored the first TD on them, so hardly a murderer’s row of offenses, though the Giants have been good in this category this season. The Titans also had a pick-six as their first TD, but whatever. It’s not a big week for discrepancies, so I’m trying to be a little bit creative.
Etienne is sixth in terms of red zone rushing attempts with 29. Bhayshul Tuten has 14 and could definitely steal this one, but Etienne is at least a receiving option as well, with five of the seven red zone targets to RB. TE Hunter Long hasn’t been used at all in the red zone, so that helps the case here, too.
Washington is second in red zone targets with seven, but he’s caught six of them, as opposed to Dyami Brown, who has only caught three of eight. Washington became the first Jaguar with more than one first team TD last week.
Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs +600, David Montgomery +900
Going on a bit of a hunch here, but Detroit has also scored on their first possession in six of their last eight games. Gibbs leads the team with four first team TDs and has 10 over the last season and a half. Collectively, Gibbs and Montgomery have 56 carries and nine targets in the red zone.
On the whole, Jared Goff has 39 red zone pass attempts, so only 30 red zone pass attempts to WR/TE. The Eagles have only allowed one tight end TD this season and only four WR touchdowns. Running backs have 11 total TD against them, with eight on the ground and three through the air. I’m simply betting on the success of Detroit’s scripted drive here.
Gibbs is fourth in red zone carries and I could see Montgomery sneaking in there. He has four red zone TD so far and actually had more first team TDs last season (7) than Gibbs (6). So I’ll take my chances with him as well, since the Eagles secondary has been exceptional.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article in 2022-23 and the tracker.
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Week 11 content in our Betting Hub.
