Week 11 NFL Odds
For the first time since Week 7, we have 15 games on the NFL schedule. Bye weeks are slowing down a little bit, as only the Colts (returning from Berlin) and Saints (licking a bunch of wounds) are idle on the Week 11 NFL slate. We’re starting off the week with New England as a very big Thursday Night Football favorite against the Jets and wrapping up with Cowboys vs. Raiders in a matchup that probably looked a little more enticing on paper several months ago.
A really good Sunday slate makes up for the weeknight primetime games, as Chiefs vs. Broncos and Lions vs. Eagles are among the highlights of what should be one of the most exciting weeks of the season to date.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 11 NFL Odds Report:
Odds as of Sunday, November 9 at 7:30 p.m. PT
Jets at Patriots (-10.5, 44.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Division action on Thursday night gets things underway in Week 11, as we get a first-year head coach on the short week with a road game. While the travel from the tri-state area to Foxboro isn’t a big deal, and the Patriots coming back from Florida is something of an equalizer, these two teams are wildly different on paper and on the stat sheet. Unless, of course, the Jets can get two special teams touchdowns like they had against the Browns. The lookahead line here was 10 or 10.5 and the line is now 10.5, so not much of an adjustment.
Commanders vs. Dolphins (-1.5, 47.5) (Madrid)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Our final international game is this week in Madrid, as the Commanders sans Jayden Daniels take on the Dolphins. Miami’s spirited effort against the Bills was a pretty resounding statement that this team hasn’t given up. Maybe the elephant exiting the room about Mike McDaniel’s status has done a lot of good, as they’ve actually played well two of the last three weeks. Meanwhile, market confidence in the Commanders and Marcus Mariota is pretty low. This line was Commanders -1.5 and now the line is Dolphins -1.5, an example of how fluid things are week to week.
Buccaneers at Bills (-5.5, 50.5)
1 p.m. ET
One of Sunday’s many big games is this one, as the Bucs head north to Buffalo. Weather is obviously something to follow here, as snow is in the forecast for most of the week, but it might be warm enough by the weekend to not have the white powder flying around. That is always something you want to try to jump on as soon as possible. Obviously forecasts can and will change, especially with lake effect snow, wind, etc., but whether it’s an Under or a player prop or something, keep an eye on it with a warm-weather team going north. As far as the spread, the lookahead line here was as high as Bills -6.5 and now is -5.5 after last week’s results, including Buffalo’s awful loss.
Bengals at Steelers (-5.5, 49.5)
1 p.m. ET
The Bengals are off of a bye and the Steelers are off of a West Coast game against the Chargers, so there is a distinct situational advantage to Cincy. Of course, there’s also the revenge angle for the Steelers, who gave up a game-winning field to the Bengals on Thursday Night Football about a month ago. The Bengals racked up nearly 500 yards of offense and their defense is atrocious, so we’ll likely see a lot of interest in the Over, especially after the teams were 14-of-24 on third down in that previous game. The spread is -5.5 after being split at -5.5 or -6 on the lookahead number. It wasn’t a good effort from Pittsburgh, but obviously the Bengals are not viewed highly.
Texans (-8.5, 39.5) at Titans
1 p.m. ET
It is always interesting to see how teams do coming off of the bye, especially with a rookie QB. Well, as it turns out, Tennessee also has an interim head coach as they come back to work to play an AFC South rivalry matchup. This line will be in limbo for a while until we see the status of CJ Stroud, even with the late-game heroics from Davis Mills. While we can’t forget what Tennessee has done, we did see this line adjust from -7.5 to -8.5 with Houston’s huge comeback in Week 10.
Bears at Vikings (-2.5, 45.5)
1 p.m. ET
It looked like we were going to have two poor data points from Week 10 for these two teams. Of course, losing to the Ravens at home with Lamar Jackson back and in control of the offense has better optics than losing to the Giants at home. But, the Bears avoided that fate. The lookahead line basically stayed the same with -2.5 or -3 across the market. At least the Bears do get to play inside this week. It sure seemed like they didn’t enjoy the weather, at least until the fourth quarter when they woke up.
Panthers at Falcons (-3.5, 42.5)
1 p.m. ET
Another division rivalry here, as this will be a fascinating game to watch in the market. The Panthers won the first game 30-0, but Atlanta absolutely dominated the box score. Atlanta has a good defense, but the offense has been putrid. I’ll be watching this line very closely, as there are reasons to back Atlanta, but maybe not enough for bettors. Then again, losing to New Orleans seems bad for business. Keep in mind, while Carolina looked very bad against the Saints, the Falcons are coming back from Berlin, as this line mostly stayed at -3.5, just with some vig shuffling around.
Chargers (-2.5, 45.5) at Jaguars
1 p.m. ET
This one has some flipped favorite potential, as the Chargers have been pretty disappointing since a good start to the season, but the Jaguars scored a nice, mostly dominant win over the Texans. It’s also a long trip for LA with an early kick and you know those are always factors in the betting market. Sometimes they are overvalued. But, the current trajectories of these two teams are going to be in the spotlight for bettors with this movement. From a lookahead standpoint, the Chargers were a road favorite and are still one.
Seahawks at Rams (-2.5, 48.5)
4:05 p.m. ET
One of the many bangers on Sunday. Both teams are off of division rivalry games and the travel isn’t too daunting, so all things feel equal from a situational standpoint. The betting market has really loved the Rams this season. The Seahawks are a metrics darling and their record is finally showing the fine work that they’ve done. Love this game in so many ways and we’ll see models that like both sides, which should make the line movement really intriguing here. The Rams were -2.5 on the lookahead line and are now -2.5 after the Week 10 results.
49ers (-2.5, 47.5) at Cardinals
4:05 p.m. ET
Another NFC West tilt here, as Jacoby Brissett gets yet another start for Arizona. The 49ers have navigated a lot of injuries and availability has been touch and go throughout the season, so bettors haven’t really been able to jump in on their games all that early. But, I will say that it feels as though the market is pretty far out on the Cardinals. With good reason, obviously, but this is a line that probably goes up rather than goes down. The lookahead line for the 49ers was -1.5 and they are -2.5 in light of last week’s outcomes, so even with the big loss to the Rams, the 49ers still grew as a favorite against Arizona.
Ravens (-8.5, 41.5) at Browns
4:25 p.m. ET
The Browns failed in every facet of the game in Week 10. They did score 20 points, a minor miracle given how much Dillon Gabriel was running for his life. Tommy Rees as OC didn’t really work. The Browns gave up two return touchdowns and couldn’t stop the Jets on the ground at all. The lookahead line here was -8 and that felt cheap going in and I figured that the Ravens would now be laying double digits on the road. It still may get to that point.
Chiefs (-3.5, 44.5) at Broncos
4:25 p.m. ET
The Broncos are on some extra rest after narrowly escaping the Raiders last Thursday night. Denver’s defense remains elite, but the offense has a lot of issues and problems. Most of them begin and end with Bo Nix. In a quarterback-driven league like the NFL, KC clearly has a huge advantage there with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense has looked a lot better with Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice out there. This is a tough line to set and a tough line to bet, IMO.
Cowboys (-3, 50) at Raiders
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
This line was pretty set because the Raiders played on Thursday and Dallas was on the bye. So, Las Vegas doesn’t really get the rest advantage you usually get the week after playing that weeknight game. Expect the Over to take some money here, as Dallas has been an Over machine and this one is indoors at Allegiant Stadium. Also, the Raiders will have no home-field advantage here, for whatever that’s worth. This one north of the key number does give it room to roam during the week.
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