Week 11 NFL Predictions
This NFL season has been interesting from my perspective, as someone who makes projections and power rates teams because I’ve noticed the gap between #1 and #32 is exceptionally widening as the season has progressed; whereas, in years past, there’s been about a 14-point gap between the top and bottom of the league, there is now about a 17-point gap in my numbers, which is a whole lot of points for a professional league that aims for parity.
Kansas City is still reigning supreme in the ratings, while the Titans are the bottom of the barrel with a -10 (points below average) rating, which is crazy. This explains why we’ve seen favorites covering at such a high rate lately, as oddsmakers attempt to keep up with the widening gap in the sport this season. Let’s take a look at where TSI shows value early in the week for the week 11 slate.
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5), O/U 48.5
I’ve mentioned before how any time the numbers show value on Detroit, I love to bet them because Dan Campbell has been a cover machine since taking over as head coach; conversely, I don’t mind fading the Eagles because they’ve had some flukey results leading to wins this year that I think potentially inflates them in the market.
TSI projects the Lions as the short favorite here, not Philly, so I’m going to grab the +1.5 with Detroit as this line continues to move that direction from the lookahead and opening lines of Philly -3.5. Even my market estimated ratings only project the Eagles -1, so there’s plenty of data and market agreement on our side here.
NFL Pick: Lions +1.5
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5), O/U 44.5
You’ve probably heard me mention I don’t like to pigeonhole teams as “Under teams” or “Over teams”, because ultimately it’s about the number, but the Chiefs are, if anything, an “Under team”. They have a stout defense and a little bit of an inconsistent offense at times, so I’m happy to play an Under on them when the numbers align, as is the case here.
The Broncos offense doesn’t scare me (#21 in TSI), and I think Bo Nix might have a rough afternoon against this Chiefs defense (#2 TSI). To top it off, the Chiefs’ offense is #10 in TSI but the Broncos’ D is #3, so I expect a low scoring game in this divisional game, as TSI calls for just 41.5 points in this one.
NFL Pick: Under 44.5
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