Week 12 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

It’s not clinched yet, but my bet on the San Francisco 49ers to go Under 11.5 season wins is close to being a winner. The hangover for the Super Bowl loser is no myth, especially not this year. In late November, the 49ers still feel the pain from losing the title game in February.

Only eight teams in NFL history returned to the Super Bowl the year after losing it, with three of those eight coming back to win it. Returning to the playoffs will be a major challenge for the 49ers, who are 5-5 and looking up at the Cardinals (6-4) in the NFC West while tied with the five-win Rams and Seahawks.

 

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While a Super Bowl hangover can hit for several reasons, bad luck with injuries is usually a factor and one that certainly has afflicted a San Francisco team which has suffered some wear and tear and is showing signs of old age. In addition, the schedule has turned into a problem. The 49ers are traveling more than 24,500 miles (fifth-most in the NFL) this season and have the worst rest differential in the league, with 21 fewer days of rest than their opponents.

The 49ers will deal with more injury issues Sunday in their game at Green Bay, and the Packers are one of my best bets for NFL Week 12:

Detroit Lions (-7.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

Not many handicappers are willing to try to tame the Lions, so this is sort of a contrarian play and it also fits my NFL philosophy of betting against the teams that looked the most impressive the previous week. No team was more impressive last week than Detroit, which totaled 645 yards in a 46-point win over Jacksonville. Of course, Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson also played his “A” game a week ago while passing for 272 yards, running for 32 yards and totaling three touchdowns against the Jets. It’s risky to count on Richardson to be so good again, but the Detroit defense lost one of its strongest run-stoppers with an injury to linebacker Alex Anzalone. Indianapolis is 3-2 at home with the losses by margins of two and 10 points. Three of the Lions’ road wins were by margins of seven points or fewer. The Colts are capable of running the ball and keeping this close.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts +7.5

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Chicago Bears

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

This is the first time this season I’m on the Bears, and it might be the last. Chicago has been reliable at home with a 4-2 record that includes a one-point loss to the Packers last week, when the Bears rushed for 179 yards and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams did not turn the ball over. It’s the third consecutive road game for the Vikings, who suddenly have some offensive shortcomings. On this road trip, Minnesota scored only 12 points at Jacksonville and 23 at Tennessee, and the turnover ghost is beginning to haunt quarterback Sam Darnold again.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: Chicago Bears +3.5

Denver Broncos (-6) at Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

The inflated line is reeling me in on the Raiders, who had an eight-game win streak in this rivalry before losing at Denver in Week 5. Broncos coach Sean Payton has done expert work to develop rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who totaled nine touchdown passes and one interception in the past four games. Denver also has the league’s No. 2 scoring defense (16.6 ppg). It appears this Las Vegas team is a lost cause, so the road favorite is being bet with a little too much enthusiasm. The Raiders will lean heavily on kicker Daniel Carlson, who’s 18-for-20 on field goals, and quarterback Gardner Minshew has found a big-time weapon in rookie tight end Brock Bowers. I’ll reluctantly adopt the ugly ‘dog and bet against the Broncos off their most impressive offensive performance of the season in a 38-6 blowout of Atlanta.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders +6

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

It’s probably an overreaction to count out San Francisco because of injuries to quarterback Brock Purdy and defensive end Nick Bosa. Purdy was not lighting it up anyway, and coach Kyle Shanahan will have a run-heavy game plan ready for backup quarterback Brandon Allen. I was looking to fade the 49ers, who have all sorts of injury issues, and had already bet the Packers -2 on Wednesday before Purdy and Bosa were declared out. Green Bay has been unimpressive lately, and Jordan Love has thrown 11 interceptions in eight games, so be cautious laying the bigger number. Still, the Packers were solidly on my list of best bets prior to the line move to 5.5, so I’ll stick with the plan.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: Green Bay Packers -5.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ offensive line showed encouraging signs last week, when Stafford passed for 295 yards and four touchdowns without taking a sack. The Rams are getting healthy and hopefully starting to peak. While the Eagles have won six straight, four of the wins came at the expense of terrible teams (Browns, Giants, Jaguars and Cowboys). The wild card in this matchup is Saquon Barkley, who’s the hottest running back in the league. Aside from Barkley, Philadelphia is not playing as well as public perception.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: Los Angeles Rams +3

For more NFL Week 12 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 12 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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