Week 12 NFL
Welcome to the Week 12 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I find NFL picks through the lens of respected predictive models to see where there is the most consensus and the most disagreement, which is valuable in determining which bets to potentially make and which ones to stay away from if the data is mixed. Using my proprietary model, the T Shoe Index, and comparing it to TeamRankings, FPI, and Sagarin, this is a way to find value in the tight NFL betting market.
Here are the biggest model agreements and disagreements in Week 12.
Note: TeamRankings is a popular sports resource website, FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Note 2: TeamRankings also has the PoolGenius product, a great Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em resource.
Week 12 NFL Odds Model Alignment
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) vs Indianapolis Colts, O/U 50
Kansas City is in unfamiliar territory this season after starting just 5-5; meanwhile, Indianapolis has been one of the biggest surprises (complimentary) of the season so far after starting 8-3 behind QB Daniel Jones. KC has lost and failed to cover in two straight games, while the Colts are 4-1 straight up and ATS in their last five. The home/road splits favor the Chiefs, as they’re 4-1 ATS at home this season, compared to Indy’s 2-2 ATS record on the road. Although, the Colts are 2-1 ATS as an underdog.
The average model projection on this game is Chiefs -4.9, with a variance of just 1.8 points. All four models indicate a Chiefs’ cover is in store, with TSI, FPI and TeamRankings all projecting Chiefs -4.5 and Sagarin projecting Chiefs -6.5. That’s a pretty shocking consensus to the layperson, considering these teams’ records. This makes KC feel like a really good bet to me.
NFL Pick: Chiefs -3.5
Week 12 NFL Odds Model Disagreement
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs Dallas Cowboys, O/U 47.5
I might as well just write the Eagles in this section in stone at this point; the models can’t seem to grasp how good the Eagles are, considering their statistical profile. This week, they’re taking on divisional rival, Dallas, and laying three points (down from 3.5). The Eagles have won and covered in four straight, while Dallas is just 2-3 straight up and ATS in its last five.
The average model projection for this game is Eagles -3.3, but a variance of 6.8 points! That’s a massive swing in projections. TSI is calling for the outright upset, with Dallas projected as a half-point favorite, while Sagarin is at the other end of the spectrum and calling for Eagles -6.5. FPI and TeamRankings project Eagles -2.7 and -4.5, respectively. I personally took Dallas +3.5 earlier in the week, based on the TSI projection, but it’s totally reasonable to pass on this game given the model disagreements, combined with the fact the line has moved and +3 isn’t the same value that +3.5 is, especially in the NFL.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Fridays, my Tuesday NFL best bets, and my Thursday college football model comparison.
