NFL First Touchdown
The number of blank lines is dwindling in the First Touchdown Tracker, as it feels like we’re a runaway train down the tracks with the NFL season. Week 12 is already upon us and that means another round of opportunities to try and pick out the team to score first and subsequently the player to do the honors. We’ll have 14 games to choose from in the First Touchdown Scorer market, as the Broncos (63.6%), Chargers (54.5%), Commanders (27.3%), and Dolphins (54.5%) take a week off.
Unlike last week, when the schedule was loaded with bangers and left few mismatches to choose from, we’ve got some bigger spreads this week, but also some closer spreads where there are early-scoring discrepancies between the two teams.
Let’s look at the first touchdown scorers by position for this season before looking at the NFL Week 12 schedule.
QB: 4 (24)
RB: 15 (107)
WR: 9 (114)
TE: 0 (53)
D/ST: 1 (11)
No TD: 1 (16)
We had 25 of the 28 first team TDs from RB/WR two weeks ago and now we have 24/30 for this past week. I think the biggest thing to take away from Weeks 10 and 11 is that we only have one first touchdown from a tight end. We were on such a strong pace at that position and it has slowed down dramatically. I’m not sure if teams are being more aware of TE in the red zone or what, but production at that position, at least in terms of first touchdowns, has dropped significantly.
The Chargers were the only team to fail to score a TD. The Browns had the D/ST TD. I believe Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield gave us the first game with two QBs as the first TD scorers for their respective teams.
You can always access the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker and see what has happened so far this season and make some inferences and subsequently wagers that way.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 9/10 (90%) |
| Giants | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Bills | 7/10 (70%) |
| Eagles | 7/10 (70%) |
| Jaguars | 7/10 (70%) |
| Lions | 7/10 (70%) |
| Rams | 7/10 (70%) |
| Broncos | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Bears | 6/10 (60%) |
| Browns | 6/10 (60%) |
| Packers | 6/10 (60%) |
| Seahawks | 6/10 (60%) |
| Steelers | 6/10 (60%) |
| 49ers | 6/11 (54.5%) |
| Chargers | 6/11 (54.5%) |
| Dolphins | 6/11 (54.5%) |
| Panthers | 6/11 (54.5%) |
| Bucs | 5/10 (50%) |
| Cowboys | 5/10 (50%) |
| Raiders | 5/10 (50%) |
| Texans | 5/10 (50%) |
| Cardinals | 4/10 (40%) |
| Chiefs | 4/10 (40%) |
| Falcons | 4/10 (40%) |
| Ravens | 4/10 (40%) |
| Bengals | 3/10 (30%) |
| Commanders | 3/11 (27.3%) |
| Patriots | 3/11 (27.3%) |
| Titans | 2/10 (20%) |
| Vikings | 2/10 (20%) |
| Jets | 1/10 (10%) |
| Saints | 1/10 (10%) |
Huzzahs and attaboys to the Jets, who scored the first TD for the first time this season. And it came on their first drive! The Patriots still won the game, and they’ve actually been a lackluster team early based on their 27.3% (3/11) rate of scoring the first TD. Something to consider moving forward, as they’re off to a great start, but maybe a regression candidate?
In terms of some recent streaks and miscellaneous notes:
- The Falcons failed to score first again last week, making it five straight weeks after starting 4/5 to begin the season
- After an 0/2 start, the Panthers are 6/9, including three straight as they take on the 49ers this week
- The Bears are 4/6 since their bye week and scored on their first possession in another game, but gave up a TD on defense before they got the ball
- The Browns are undoubtedly horrible, however they have scored the first TD in 6 of their last 7 games (of course, Shedeur Sanders starts this week)
- Last week marked the first time in seven games where the Lions scored first that they didn’t score on their first possession
- After starting the season 5/5, the Packers have gone 1/5 over the last five games and have not scored the first TD in three straight
- The Rams have scored the first TD in five straight games and three of them have featured a first possession TD
- Not only are the Saints 1/10 in this department, they scored the first TD in Week 1 and haven’t since. They’re off a bye this week
- The Titans are 2/10 in this department and one was a pick-six. With the Jets scoring on their first possession last week, Tennessee is the only team to not do that this season
I’m also tracking players to score at least three first team TDs for their teams. Here it is entering Week 12:
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) Top Scorers by Team
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 5 | 4 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 5 | 2 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 5 | 1 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 4 | 3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 4 | 3 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 4 | 2 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 4 | 1 |
| Kenneth Gainwell (PIT) | 3 | 3 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Tyler Warren (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 3 | 2 |
| Jaxson Dart (NYG) | 3 | 2 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE) | 3 | 2 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 3 | 2 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 3 | 2 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 3 | 2 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 3 | 2 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB) | 3 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 3 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 3 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 3 | 1 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 3 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 3 | 0 |
| Raiders No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
This week’s additions: Gainwell, Collins, Hurts, Robinson, Tucker. K. Williams, McCaffrey, and Henry went from 4 to 5.
With that, let’s get to the Week 12 action and look at some mismatches from 2025 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Week 12 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025
Bills (70%) at Texans (50%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Steelers (60%) at Bears (60%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Patriots (27.3%) at Bengals (30%)
Vikings (20%) at Packers (60%)
Seahawks (60%) at Titans (20%)
Browns (60%) at Raiders (50%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Jaguars (70%) at Cardinals (40%)
Eagles (70%) at Cowboys (50%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Buccaneers (50%) at Rams (70%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Panthers (54.5%) at 49ers (54.5%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 12 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Seattle Seahawks: Kenneth Walker III +600, Cooper Kupp +1400
A little bit of risk involved here, with the Seahawks traveling for an early kickoff and the Titans off of the bye, but Seattle is a very well-coached team and I think they’ll be just fine. The injury to Tory Horton is likely to open up more opportunities for both Kupp and recently-acquired Rashid Shaheed. Last week, Kupp and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were the only guys with red zone targets at WR.
Shaheed went from 33.9% of the snaps to 53.6%, as the Seahawks trailed a lot more in Week 11 than they did in Week 10. But, Kupp was out there for 81% of the snaps, just his third game over 80%. I think he’s more likely to see a bump with Horton out, and especially in the red zone, where JSN only has six targets for the season. Kupp and Horton both had four. And Kupp has caught all four targets.
As far as Walker goes, obviously you can flip a coin between him and Zach Charbonnet, but Walker’s price is a dollar higher. Charbonnet has 28 carries in the red zone compared to 25 for Walker, but I’ll go with the slightly better price on Walker, who continues to have the higher snap share.
Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor +340, Tyler Warren +1400
These are actually the two short shots on the board for the Colts. There are four Chiefs in between. Furthermore, right after Warren, there are two more Chiefs. So six KC guys are 15/1 or lower and there are only two Colts. You could really take some shots with Indy’s WR if you want, though QB Daniel Jones is the only one outside of Taylor or Warren with a first team TD since Week 3 and that was a defensive score.
In fact, outside of Taylor, Warren, and Jones, only one other offensive player (Michael Pittman) has a first TD. But, as you can see, the Colts are 90% on the season, scoring the first TD in nine of their 10 games. Even if KC has Patrick Mahomes and all the others, the Colts off of a bye with their success in this department this season deserve more credit than the market is giving them.
Taylor leads the NFL with 47 red zone carries and he also has 13 total red zone TDs. Warren has hauled in three first team TDs and has four red zone touchdowns.
Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams +475, Colby Parkinson +2000
With Davante Adams and Puka Nacua at +500 and +600, respectively, I’ll give Parkinson a try here. I caught the 20/1 shot with Tyler Higbee back in Week 9. With that Higbee score, the Rams have four TD catches by TE in the past three weeks. Parkinson has two and Davis Allen also has one. With Higbee now on IR, I think the 6-foot-7 Parkinson will be the primary option.
The Rams have scored the first TD in five straight games and Williams has scored it each of the last two weeks. On the season, he has five and he now has 18 of them in LA’s last 30 games. Because of the opponent here, I think we’re getting Williams at a bit better price than normal as well.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article in 2022-23 and the tracker.
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Week 12 content in our Betting Hub.
