Week 12 NFL Odds
Four teams are on byes in Week 12, so we’ll have 14 NFL games to think about. After a thrilling Sunday with a lot of games that came down to the wire, it will be tough to get the same sort of drama next weekend, but we do have a lot of closely-lined games, so that’s at least a start. Looking at the Week 12 NFL lines, we are missing the marquee games that we had in Week 11, but we do have a lot of teams that have either been inconsistent or have good records, but have been difficult to gauge.
Uncertainty and a high level of variance are usually positives for astute bettors looking to grab some line value. With the Week 11 results in, minus Cowboys vs. Raiders, which Zachary Cohen previewed here, it’s time to turn the page to Week 12 and see the early movement and the adjustments from the lookahead lines.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 12 NFL Odds Report:
Odds as of Sunday, November 16 at 7:30 p.m. PT
Bills (-3.5, 43.5) at Texans
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Buffalo heads to Houston as a road favorite on the short week here, as the Texans emerged victorious on a last-second field goal in Tennessee for a happy flight back to the Lone Star State. This is Buffalo’s second Thursday Night Football game, as they beat Miami 31-21 back in Week 3. This will also be their third road game in five weeks since the bye and their two home games were tough tilts against Kansas City and Tampa Bay. Obviously we’ll wait to see if CJ Stroud can clear concussion protocol in time for this one, as that will have a big impact on the number. The lookahead markets mostly had this one Bills -2.5 and Davis Mills didn’t look too sharp against the Titans.
Steelers at Bears (-3, 45)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Despite a nice win over the Bengals, the Steelers have become bigger underdogs here with Aaron Rodgers injured. Rodgers reportedly suffered a small break in his non-throwing wrist, so we’ll have to wait and see how the Steelers play it between him and Mason Rudolph. Rudolph played well against the hopeless Bengals defense, going 12-of-16 for 127 and a TD. The Bears beat the Vikings on Cairo Santos’ walk-off field goal to improve to 7-3. This was -1.5 in favor of Chicago, but the injury to Rodgers pushed this line out to -3, as the Bears maybe got a tad more respect off the road win as well.
Jets at Ravens (-14.5, 44.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
It was hardly pretty, but the Ravens got out of Cleveland with a win. Baltimore would have lost to most teams on Sunday, but with the Browns running out Dillon Gabriel for a half and then Shedeur Sanders for a half, Lamar Jackson’s mistakes weren’t costly enough to cost his team a win. This really feels like a big number based on what we saw out of Baltimore, plus Kyle Hamilton is playing very hurt on the Ravens defense. Still, the Jets stink. This line was predominantly -14.5 in the lookahead markets and now sits either 14 or 14.5 across the board.
Giants at Lions (-10.5, 49)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
The Lions had to wait all day long for their game against the Eagles, as they drew the Sunday Night Football timeslot. In the meantime, the Giants battled valiantly against the Packers, but came up short 27-20 thanks to a late Green Bay touchdown. Jameis Winston wasn’t terribly sharp, but did only throw one interception in the losing effort and had a rushing TD. It’s a sort of short week for Detroit off the late return home on Sunday night/Monday morning, but that probably won’t matter a ton in the context of this handicap. This one was also mostly off the board with the status of Jaxson Dart up in the air.
Patriots (-7, 50.5) at Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
New England is extra rested for this one after beating the Jets on Thursday night in Week 11. The Bengals got pummeled by the rival Steelers, as they scored a touchdown on their first drive and didn’t find the end zone again after that. The defense also caved in the second half, where Pittsburgh scored 24 of their 34 points. This one was -5.5 or so before New England handled the Jets, at which point the line went to 6. Now, most shops actually went all the way up to 7 on this game as of Sunday night and who can blame them?
Seahawks (-12.5, 41.5) at Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
The perception of the Seahawks seemed to take a bit of a hit with their loss to the Rams, as Sam Darnold badly struggled with four interceptions in the 21-19 loss. Even with all the giveaways, Seattle still played very stout on defense and gave themselves a chance to win, so I think people are looking at this game in the wrong context. It doesn’t seem like the sportsbooks are, as Seattle is laying doubles on the road with two time zones worth of travel coming off of a huge rivalry game. It’s a bad spot situationally, but the line didn’t budge much from where the lookahead was.
Vikings at Packers (-6.5, 42)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
The Packers won on Sunday, but it came at a cost, as Josh Jacobs suffered a knee injury. Jordan Love was even out for a little while as he got checked out. It was a much needed win for Green Bay, as the football wagering community seemed to be a little bit down on them going into the game against the Giants. Truth be told, even though they won, I don’t think those fears were quelled to a high degree. Even still, the Vikings lost to the Bears and JJ McCarthy looked rather bad, so upon reposting, this line actually inched up slightly from where the lookahead line was.
Colts at Chiefs (-3.5, 49.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Such a fascinating game here because it is very, very clear that Kansas City is still held in high esteem, but do they really deserve it? This team is 0-5 in one-score games, a stat that seems justified given how fortunate they’ve been in those games in the past. The Colts didn’t look great in Berlin, but they’re coming in off of the bye, while the Chiefs suffered a huge setback with the loss to Denver that put the Broncos very much in the driver’s seat in the AFC West. The lookahead line was mostly Chiefs -4 or -4.5 here and, honestly, I think the hooks will be coming off of the 3.5 as the week goes along.
Jaguars (-2.5, 47.5) at Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
The Jaguars missed some opportunities in the first half, as Trevor Lawrence made some poor reads and missed some open guys, but it didn’t matter because Jacksonville dominated the Chargers. LA did not score a touchdown in that one as they now head into the bye week. Arizona got 47 completions and a whole bunch of yards from Jacoby Brissett, but a lot of garbage time was played in the Cardinals loss to the 49ers. DraftKings actually had Arizona favored on the lookahead for a little bit, and now we’ve seen this go from Jags -1 or -1.5 out to -2.5 and I think 3 will show up early in the week as well.
Falcons (-2.5, 40.5) at Saints
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
A rare late game in New Orleans here, as we don’t have a lot of options to pick from for the late slate in Week 12. The Falcons lost to the Panthers again and the Saints were on a bye. Michael Penix Jr. also got hurt for Atlanta in that loss. This line went from -3.5 to -2.5 for a variety of factors. One probably not being talked about enough is how Bryce Young had 448 passing yards on the Falcons defense.
Buccaneers at Rams (-6.5, 49.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Another tough road game for the Bucs, as they fly all the way out west to take on the Rams. To be honest, even though Darnold had the four picks, I was more impressed with Seattle than LA on Sunday, as the Rams were +3 in turnover margin and still mustered only 21 points and had just 249 yards of offense. The Bucs got soundly outgained by Buffalo and gave up a 40 burger, not to mention 7.8 yards per play. I don’t think it was the best set of data points for either team, but the Rams did go from -6 to -6.5 for this one with signs of going to 7.
Panthers at 49ers (-6.5, 47.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Carolina also makes a long trip this week, as they head from Charlotte to Santa Clara to battle the 49ers. San Francisco gave up 452 yards to Jacoby Brissett and Young had that aforementioned 400-yard passing performance, so we did see the total get bumped up on this game from 45.5 to 47.5 in what was one of the more noteworthy totals moves of the Week 12 lookahead lines. It probably helps that Brock Purdy came back for San Francisco and mostly looked good with three TD passes on just 19 completions. From a side standpoint, the spread was slightly adjusted up on the San Fran side, probably more about Purdy being back than anything.
Bookmark the Week 12 NFL Hub to get all of this week’s NFL betting content!
