Week 12 NFL Predictions
It was another wild and entertaining NFL week, with multiple OT games, more injuries, upsets, and some inexplicable blowouts – looking at you, Chargers. It was a brutal betting week in the NFL for me, which was probably overdue given how strong I started the season. But as we know, it happens, and it’ll take more than that to discourage me from continuing to ride the numbers. One thing I have learned over the years, though, is the later the season goes, the more important it is to read the market because of injury news and teams beginning to position themselves for draft purposes. The “art” becomes as important as the “science” as we head into the home stretch of the season. Here are some early Week 12 bets I like, courtesy of the T Shoe Index projections.
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
San Francisco (-7) vs. Carolina, O/U 48
Bryce Young and the Panthers looked uncharacteristically competent Sunday against Atlanta, winning in overtime in a relatively high-scoring game. The 49ers also hung a big number on Arizona in another high-scoring affair; however, those performances were not typical of these teams, and I think as a result, this total has gotten dramatically inflated. TSI only projects 43 points here, and the market estimation (based on how these teams’ totals have been priced) is only 44. These teams are only 11th (SF) and 29th (CAR) in opponent-adjusted points per game, but 15th (SF) and 18th (CAR) in opponent-adjusted points allowed, so there’s not going to be huge advantages for either offense in this game. The 49ers (13th) and Panthers (26th) aren’t killing it from an opponent-adjusted yards per play standpoint, either. Bottom line, I think these teams come back to Earth a bit and keep this under the total.
NFL Pick: Under 48
Cincinnati vs. New England (-8.5), O/U 49.5
The big news out of this game is that Bengals’ star WR Ja’Marr Chase is suspended due to spitting (!!) on Steelers CB Jalen Ramsey in Sunday’s game. However, the Bengals’ defense is still just as porous as ever, and Patriots’ QB Drake Maye is playing like an MVP candidate and should be able to take full advantage. Even without Chase, I think the Bengals can contribute to this total enough to push it over, as TSI projects 52 points in this game. Cincinnati has the worst opponent-adjusted points per game rating in the NFL, so New England should score at will, and the Bengals’ offense is middle-of-the-pack in opponent-adjusted points per game, so that should be enough to get this game over, where the Bengals are 5-0 to the Over at home and the Patriots are 6-4 to the Over on the year, including 3-2 on the road.
NFL Pick: Over 49.5
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