Week 13 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:

Literally disgusted by what has been a brutal month, I am not even going to look back at the agony of Week 12 for myself. Instead, I will simply forge on and hope to quickly turnaround what has now become a 48-56-2 ATS (46.2%) season record. We move on to Week 13 NFL best bets and the Thanksgiving weekend games in the NFL. Here is what I have come up with after pouring through this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report.

 

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Chicago at Detroit

Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

I may be falling into one of the biggest traps I can ever remember or the oddsmakers are giving us a freebie here, but how in the world can Detroit be a single-digit favorite against Chicago here? I recognize that the Lions have some painful Thanksgiving Day memories lately, but this year’s team looks more than ready to blast those nightmares away. 

Just a year ago, Detroit was favored by 8 points on Turkey Day over a FAR better Green Bay team. This Chicago team has unraveled and has a recent history of being awful vs. NFC North foes and on the road. In fact, Chicago is 8-21 SU and 9-20 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019 and 26-44 ATS (37.1%) in road/neutral games since 2016. At the same time, when the Lions get hot, they typically stay hot: Detroit is 15-4 SU and 16-3 ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018. 

More on the momentum angle, NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their L4 games outright have kept the momentum going with a 14-1 SU & 12-3 ATS (80%) record in their last 15 tries. Finally, regarding Bears’ rookie QB Caleb Williams, since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 19 games, going 19-117 SU and 52-80-4 ATS (39.4%). The Lions are the league’s best team right now. Why would they lay an egg in what could be their highest-profile game to date?

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: I’m taking the Lions -9.5 here 

NY Giants at Dallas

Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX)

The middle game of the Turkey Day tripleheader couldn’t be as ugly as it looks on paper, could it? With a total of 37, oddsmakers are trying to tell it could be. Most bettors aren’t buying it, though, with 67% of the money actually leaning to an Over. That could be a good sign, as since 2022, the average NFL total has been right around 44 or a tic higher. Since mid-2023, majority handle bettors have been very sharp in dealing with totals at or below that number (44 or less). In fact, since November 2023, these groups have gone 97-66 (59.5%)! 

I could see why the experts would expect continued struggles from the Giants’ offense, as they were pretty bad with QB Tommy Devito leading the charge last week against the Bucs. However, if anyone watched that game, they were way less conservative in the second half and produced most of their numbers after halftime. I would expect a little more of that over the entire 60 minutes here. Dallas, meanwhile, has actually turned it up offensively over the last couple of games as QB Cooper Rush has gotten more and more comfortable. 

These teams played a 20-15 decision back in New York on 9/26. The total for that game was a full 8 points higher than this one. Dallas has a very rich history of high-scoring rematch games at home, going Over the total in 15 of its last 16 in that situation. In addition, the last five games of NYG-DAL series in Dallas went Over total, avg 60.2 PPG. I know the game looks bad, but I think it will be played far better.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go OVER 37 in the Giants-Cowboys tilt

Miami at Green Bay

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

A lot of the talk this week has focused on how Miami has gotten hot of late, while overlooking the fact that the Packers are 6-1 in their last seven games. In my opinion, there has to be a grain of salt given with the Dolphins’ recent surge, as the Rams have been terrible at home this season, and the Raiders and Patriots are flat-out bad teams. This will easily be the biggest test they have faced since Tua’s return to the lineup. Look at the trend regarding the Miami QB: Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa is 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in his L9 starts versus teams with winning records. In addition, Miami’s head coach Mike McDaniel is on a 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog. 

Meanwhile, Green Bay has been one of the league’s best home teams in recent years, going 89-19 SU and 68-38 ATS as a home favorite since 2009. The Packers are coming off their best showing of the season, albeit against an injury-riddled 49ers team, but it was a 38-10 rout against a team that has had their number recently. Obviously, the weather will be of concern here for the Dolphins, as the last time they played in what will be weather similar to Thursday was in the playoffs last January when they were thoroughly stymied by the Chiefs. 

Speaking of Thursday, there is a unique angle on late-season TNF games: There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 24-22 SU but 15-29-2 ATS (34.1%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 & later are 41-25 SU and 39-25-2 ATS (60.9%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season. If all that wasn’t enough, Green Bay is on a 5-1 SU and ATS surge versus Miami. To me, this is an underpriced line for the quality of the home team and the situation.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Green Bay -3 against Miami

Las Vegas at Kansas City

Friday, 3:00 p.m. ET (AMAZON)

Last week, I wrote these exact words about backing the Cowboys against Washington…”Yes, I know, I keep backing Dallas, but the way the Cowboys are playing is typical of NFL teams that have been historically profitable to back. This might be the time they get it done for bettors, as they are a divisional double-digit dog and coming off what was a reasonable offensive performance.” 

Wouldn’t you know it, the Raiders are in almost the exact same predicament as they take on the Chiefs in the Black Friday game. They are off a loss to the Broncos in which they won the yardage battle 369-325. Let’s face it, like Washington last week, the Chiefs certainly aren’t playing their best football right now, and they have for long been known as a team that doesn’t get it done on big numbers. In fact, Kansas City’s QB Patrick Mahomes is 32-2 SU but 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%) in his last 34 games as a favorite of more than 7 points. He is also just 15-10 SU but just 5-19-1 ATS, following up a game in which his team scored 30+ points since 2020. HC Andy Reid’s team is also off its two worst defensive performances of the season, yielding 57 points in all. 

I know the Raiders don’t look like a real appetizing bet here, but consider these three unique streak systems that are in play on them: 1) NFL road teams that have lost their last three games ATS and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 15-28 SU but 31-10-2 ATS (75.6%) in their last 43 tries. 2) NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-74 SU but 57-30 ATS (65.5%) as underdogs of 5.5 points or more since ‘06. 3) NFL teams that have lost at least their last five games outright have gone 12-64 SU and 49-26-1 ATS (65.3%) as double-digit road underdogs since 2006. As I said, these ugly teams have covered historically in this league. Although a lot of weird stuff has been happening lately, I still believe in my data.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Raiders +13.5 at KC on Black Friday

LA Chargers at Atlanta

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Very curious line here if you ask me, as the Chargers play in the road favorite role after coming off their two worst defensive performances of the year while taking on a team that is over-.500 and coming off its bye week. To me, it doesn’t make sense. Prior to the 11/17 game versus Cincinnati, head coach Jim Harbaugh’s team hadn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game. In the two games since, they’ve given up 57, and QBs Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson had their way with the Chargers’ secondary. Why can’t Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins do the same thing after getting the chance to regroup last week?

Let’s look at some of the key trends I’ve found and like for this contest: First, Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins is 18-12 SU and 20-8 ATS with his team coming off a road loss since 2015. Second, veteran QBs in new places struggle a bit out of the gate, but, like should be expected, these QBs play best in the key month of December, when postseason berths are usually on the line, going 47-43 SU and 50-37-3 ATS (57.5%) since 2004. Third, re-tread head coaches like Harbaugh/Morris have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. 

As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 92-69 SU but just 57-93-11 ATS, for 38%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 81-188 SU and 130-132-7 ATS (49.6%). I mentioned the Falcons coming out of their bye week. Well, Atlanta is on a 15-5 SU and 14-6 ATS run in its last 20 post-bye week games. I expect a division-leading Falcons team to be rested & reinvigorated.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: I’ll take Atlanta +2.5 here versus LAC

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

I’m not sure where the continued over-respect for Cincinnati keeps coming from. Yes, the Bengals are good offensively and have some big stars on that side of the ball, but they are also giving up 26.9 PPG (10.0 more than the Steelers) and have for long been a team that I trust a lot more in the underdog role or on the road. They come off of their bye week here, and it is essentially a must-win for them if they are to maintain any slight hope at a playoff run. At 4-7 with these defensive numbers, they certainly don’t seem worthy of being favored in this game. 

The Steelers have won outright and ATS in their last two trips to Cincinnati, and head coach Mike Tomlin is on 29-19 SU and 34-12 ATS run as a single-digit underdog. It’s also time for Pittsburgh QB Russell Wilson to keep cooking as veteran QBs in new places play best in the key month of December, when postseason berths are usually on the line, going 47-43 SU & 50-37-3 ATS (57.5%) since 2004. They are also 43-70 SU but 64-44-5 ATS (59.3%) when playing as underdogs of 3 points or more. Finally, I mentioned the Bengals coming out of the bye week; it should be noted that they have allowed 36 PPG in their last four post-bye week divisional games. I don’t like the prospects of Cincy needing to score a lot of points on this Steelers’ defense.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: I’ll take Pittsburgh as a 3-point dog here

Indianapolis at New England

1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

It seems almost hard to believe, but the Patriots offense has actually been more proficient and consistent in recent weeks than the Colts, as QB Drake Maye is getting more and more comfortable in his leadership role. In fact, Indy has scored 16 points or fewer in three of its last six games, while the Patriots have scored 16 points or more in all but one of their last seven contests. I say this because oddsmakers have set the Colts up as very uncomfortable 2.5-point road favorites for this Sunday’s head-to-head tilt in Foxboro. Speaking of which, New England has won their last five ATS hosting Indianapolis. 

The Patriots have had the last two weeks to recharge after enjoying their bye week, and I have two separate systems indicating that could be beneficial here: 1)  Play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes Week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 72-37-2 ATS since 2010, 66.1%) 2) Play on home underdogs heading into their BYE week. (Record: 35-22-3 ATS since 2015, 61.4%). As a franchise, New England has won its L5 pre-bye week games at home, both SU and ATS and all against non-divisional AFC foes.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: I like New England’s chances as a +2.5-point dog on Sunday

Houston at Jacksonville

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Although it isn’t a huge game in terms of the AFC South standings for the Texans on Sunday, I do believe it is a very important contest for their psyche as they head into their bye week. Houston has lost three of four and really doesn’t seem to be one of the best teams in the conference any longer. A decisive win here and a chance to regroup and get 100% healthy over the following two weeks could easily change that. 

What better team to face than the Jaguars when you need to get right, as Jacksonville is on a horrific 4-39 SU and 10-33 ATS skid vs. teams with better records since 2011. They are off of their bye week, meaning this system is in play: Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 42-18 SU and 34-24-2 ATS since 1999). Going directly head-to-head with that is a pre-bye week system backing the Texans: Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 54-23-2 ATS since 2013, 70.1%). As a franchise, Houston boasts a 14-8 SU and 16-6 ATS record in pre-bye week games since its inception in 2002, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. divisional foes. If all that wasn’t enough, this has been a great matchup for head coach DeMeco Ryans’ team, as Houston is on a 9-3 ATS run at Jacksonville.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: I expect a big effort from the Texans (-4) at Jacksonville

San Francisco at Buffalo

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

For as much as I admired TE George Kittle’s attempts to positively spin what was happening and going to happen to his team after the blowout loss at Green Bay, it is inarguable that things just aren’t right for the defending NFC champs. Whether it be all the injuries, discontent with roles, or whatever else is plaguing this team right now, it certainly doesn’t look like a team to trust at this point. And they face what would be considered one of the toughest tests in all of football, a December Sunday night tilt in Orchard Park. 

As it is, the biggest home favorites on Sunday nights, or those laying 7 points or more, have been solid of late, going 17-3 SU and 11-9 ATS (55%) in their last 20 tries. SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 10-25 SU and 11-24 ATS (31.4%) in their last 35 tries against teams off a win. More on that, momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-21 SU and 14-20-1 ATS (41.2%) in their last 35, but those coming off a win are on a current 23-6 SU and 18-11 ATS (62.1%) surge. 

The Bills are riding high after their win against the Chiefs and well-rested coming off their bye week. Buffalo is on a 9-0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS run in post-bye week games and is 20-10-2 ATS dating back to ’93. They are also on a 4-0 Under the total run in post-bye week games, allowing just 15.5 PPG. On top of that, favorites are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the SF-BUF series. Assuming Purdy doesn’t play, which looks likely, my power ratings say this line should be double-digits. Only the San Francisco brand name keeps it at a TD.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: I’ll take Buffalo -7 on SNF versus San Francisco

Cleveland at Denver

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC)

I love the chance to back up-and-coming teams in games where they have a chance to finally strut their stuff in a high-profile single-game telecast. If you recall, Denver whipped New Orleans in their last chance to do this on a Thursday night a month ago. Now the Broncos get to do it again on a Monday night versus Cleveland. The Browns come off a weather-aided win against the Steelers this past Thursday night. Cleveland’s head coach Kevin Stefanski is on 7-18 SU and 6-17 ATS slide when coming off an outright win. My backing of head coach Sean Payton’s team comes from three different reasonings. 

First, rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of Monday night games lately, as they are 19-5-1 ATS (79.2%) in their last 25 MNF contests. Second, with the Broncos heading into their bye after this, Play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 72-37-2 ATS since ’10, 66.1%). As a franchise, Denver is 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 pre-bye week games overall, and outright winners are on a 17-game ATS winning streak in Denver pre-bye week home games. Finally, in head-to-head play, Denver is on 10-2-2 ATS run vs. Cleveland. That’s enough for me.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: I’ll lay the 5.5 points with the Broncos here

For more NFL Week 13 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 13 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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