Week 13 NFL
Welcome to the Week 13 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I find NFL picks through the lens of respected predictive models to see where there is the most consensus and the most disagreement, which is valuable in determining which bets to potentially make and which ones to stay away from if the data is mixed. Using my proprietary model, the T Shoe Index, and comparing it to TeamRankings, FPI, and Sagarin, this is a way to find value in the tight NFL betting market.
Here are the biggest model agreements and disagreements in Week 13.
Note: TeamRankings is a popular sports resource website, FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Note 2: TeamRankings also has the PoolGenius product, a great Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em resource.
Week 13 NFL Odds Model Alignment
Seattle Seahawks (-12) vs Minnesota Vikings, O/U 41
Minnesota’s luck has gone from bad to worse as their top 2 QBs on the depth chart – Carson Wentz and JJ McCarthy – are now out with injuries, leaving Max Brosmer to start against the Seahawks. Minnesota has lost and failed to cover in each of its last three games, while Seattle has won and covered in four out of five.
The average model projection on this game is Seahawks -8.7 with a variance of just 1.5. Obviously, these likely don’t include the QB downgrade, but even so, I find it hard to believe McCarthy-to-Brosmer is 3.5-point drop, considering McCarthy has put up some of the worst numbers we’ve seen from a QB in the NFL, statistically speaking. Every model is between -8 and -9.5, and I think getting above 10.5 here is probably worth a look.
NFL Pick: Vikings +12
Week 13 NFL Odds Model Disagreement
Cleveland Browns vs San Francisco 49ers (-4.5), O/U 35.5
Cleveland is another team that hasn’t been able to get its QB situation stabilized and now rookie QB Shedeur Sanders will get his second career start after winning his first and covering a +3 spread in the process. The 49ers have won and covered in back-to-back games, winning by an average of 15 points in the process.
The average model projection is San Francisco -6.3, but a variance of 7.5 points. Sagarin is the lowest projection at SF -3.5, while FPI is all the way at SF -11. TSI and TeamRankings are closer to market at -5 and -5.5, respectively. With just a one game sample size (against the Raiders, at that), I think it’s tough to really know what this Cleveland offense is going to be, so this one is definitely a stay away from me.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Fridays, my Tuesday NFL best bets, and my Thursday college football model comparison.
