NFL First Touchdown
All 32 teams take the field here in Week 13, as we have the three Thanksgiving games, our first Friday night NFL game since Week 1, and then the usual slate of Sunday matchups before Monday Night Football wraps up the week. Not bad, eh? Four days out of five with NFL action and college football rivalry week in between. That’ll do. It’ll be especially enjoyable if we hit some players in the First Touchdown Scorer market.
Colby Parkinson was about a yard and a half short for the Rams and Sean McVay opted to go to Davante Adams out of the subsequent timeout instead of Kyren Williams. A bummer, but the first step is isolating the first team to score and the second is hoping to land on the right player. Armed with another week’s worth of data, that’s what the goals are again this week.
Let’s look at the first touchdown scorers by position for this season before looking at the NFL Week 13 schedule.
QB: 0 (24)
RB: 7 (114)
WR: 15 (129)
TE: 1 (54)
D/ST: 4 (15)
No TD: 1 (17)
Just one first team TD from a TE this week after zero last week and one the week prior. The blazing pace of tight ends scoring has really dropped off significantly. Something to keep in mind and an adjustment that I’ll have to make, as I’ve been seeking out TE at better prices than what we get the WR1 and WR2 in most games, but for some reason, adjustments have been made by DCs.
We had four D/ST first team TDs last week, which was a season-high. The Vikings were the only team to not score a TD. And wide receivers had another huge week with 15/28 first team TDs. I would think that pace might slow down a little bit as it gets colder and the weather conditions get worse, but maybe that won’t be the case. I can’t recall from last season, but I don’t believe the data supported that assumption.
You can always access the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker and see what has happened so far this season and make some inferences and subsequently wagers that way.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 10/11 (90.9%) |
| Giants | 9/12 (75%) |
| Bills | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Eagles | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Jaguars | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Rams | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Bears | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Broncos | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Browns | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Lions | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Packers | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Seahawks | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| 49ers | 7/12 (58.3%) |
| Chargers | 6/11 (54.5%) |
| Dolphins | 6/11 (54.5%) |
| Steelers | 6/11 (54.5%) |
| Panthers | 6/12 (50%) |
| Bucs | 5/11 (45.5%) |
| Cowboys | 5/11 (45.5%) |
| Falcons | 5/11 (45.5%) |
| Raiders | 5/11 (45.5%) |
| Texans | 5/11 (45.5%) |
| Bengals | 4/11 (36.4%) |
| Cardinals | 4/11 (36.4%) |
| Chiefs | 4/11 (36.4%) |
| Ravens | 4/11 (36.4%) |
| Commanders | 3/11 (27.3%) |
| Patriots | 3/12 (25%) |
| Jets | 2/11 (18.2%) |
| Titans | 2/11 (18.2%) |
| Vikings | 2/11 (18.2%) |
| Saints | 1/11 (9.1%) |
After scoring first for the first time this season in Week 11, the Jets did it again in Week 12, so congratulations to them. Now the Saints are bringing up the rear in sole possession of last place. Another win for the Patriots without scoring the game’s first TD. They are 3-0 when they do score the first TD, but also 7-2 when they don’t. Possibly a good live betting team rather than laying big numbers with them ATS. This week is also an interesting one with how good the Giants have been at scoring first.
In terms of some recent streaks and miscellaneous notes:
- The Ravens have not had a WR score their first TD of the game since Week 2 (Tylan Wallace) and that is the only time this season; in fact, Mark Andrews in Week 9 is the only time it hasn’t been a RB or a game without a TD in that span
- The Bears have scored the first TD in three straight games, five of seven since the bye, and scored on their first offensive possession after falling behind in Week 9
- The Browns have scored the first TD in five straight games and in each of the last seven games when they’ve scored a TD; they didn’t score one in Week 6 against Pittsburgh
- Michael Pittman’s TD was the first for the Colts by a WR since Week 1; Pittman is the only WR to have scored the team’s first TD
- Kareem Hunt has scored the Chiefs’ first TD in three of the last four games; no RB had one for them up until Week 8
- The Rams have scored the first TD in six straight games and on their first possession in four of the last five
- The Giants have scored the first TD in 9 of their last 11 games and have scored on their first possession in six of them
I’m also tracking players to score at least three first team TDs for their teams. Here it is entering Week 13:
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) Top Scorers by Team
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 6 | 1 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 5 | 4 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 5 | 2 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 4 | 3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 4 | 3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 4 | 3 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 4 | 2 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 4 | 1 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 3 | 3 |
| Kenneth Gainwell (PIT) | 3 | 3 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Tyler Warren (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 3 | 2 |
| Jaxson Dart (NYG) | 3 | 2 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| Ashton Jeanty (LV) | 3 | 2 |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE) | 3 | 2 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 3 | 2 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 3 | 2 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 3 | 2 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 3 | 1 |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB) | 3 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 3 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 3 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 3 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 3 | 1 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) | 3 | 1 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 3 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 3 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 3 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
| Raiders No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
This week’s additions: Jeanty, Adams, Hunt, McMillan, H. Henry, Metcalf. D. Henry went from 5 to 6. Smith-Njigba went from 3 to 4.
With that, let’s get to the Week 13 action and look at some mismatches from 2025 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Week 13 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025
Packers (63.6%) at Lions (63.6%) – Thursday, 1 p.m. ET
Chiefs (36.4%) at Cowboys (45.5%) – 4:30 p.m. ET
Bengals (36.4%) at Ravens (36.4%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Bears (63.6%) at Eagles (72.7%) – Friday, 3 p.m. ET
49ers (58.3%) at Browns (63.6%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Jaguars (72.7%) at Titans (18.2%)
Texans (45.5%) at Colts (90.9%)
Saints (9.1%) at Dolphins (54.5%)
Falcons (45.5%) at Jets (18.2%)
Cardinals (36.4%) at Buccaneers (45.5%)
Rams (72.7%) at Panthers (50%)
Vikings (18.2%) at Seahawks (63.6%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Bills (72.7%) at Steelers (54.5%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Raiders (45.5%) at Chargers (54.5%)
Broncos (63.6%) at Commanders (27.3%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Giants (75%) at Patriots (25%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Unfortunately, I don’t see any good mismatches for Thursday’s Thanksgiving slate, but if you wanted some rooting interest, Jahmyr Gibbs (+425) and Jameson Williams (+1200) are worthy considerations.
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 13 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Travis Etienne Jr. +500, Parker Washington +1100
Liam Coen is not on my holiday card list, as Bhayshul Tuten got the first touchdown two weeks ago when Etienne was listed in the article, but Etienne scored the first TD last week against the Chargers. Etienne, Tuten, and Washington are the only players for Jacksonville with multiple first team TDs.
Etienne has 40 carries in the red zone to Tuten’s 20 and has six targets and five catches to Tuten’s one target and one catch. If Tuten hawks another one, I’ll be annoyed, but at least the process is on the right track. The Titans have allowed five rushing TD in the first quarter against one pass TD and have only scored three offensive TD in the first half this season.
Washington leads the Jaguars in red zone targets with nine, one more than Dyami Brown, who only has two targets in the last three games. I am a bit concerned with Brenton Strange (+1500) coming back as a red zone option, especially since Coen is from the Sean McVay school, where TE are a focal point on offense. Nevertheless, the shift Washington has become a key cog in the offense and Lawrence likes him in these red zone spots.
Miami Dolphins: De’Von Achane +370, Jaylen Waddle +600
I’m not getting cute or fancy here. Evil offensive genius Mike McDaniel just had a week off to figure out how to attack the Saints and I think it will prominently feature his two best offensive players. The Dolphins have scored a TD in 9/11 games and Achane has four of his team’s first TDs. He had the first TD in five games last season, but departed TD Jonnu Smith had four of them and he’s not an option anymore.
In fact, the Dolphins haven’t thrown a TD pass to a TE since Darren Waller’s season ended. So, I think it has to be Waddle or maybe Malik Washington, but this should be a spot for Tua Tagovailoa to get the ball to his two best weapons in hopes of jumping out ahead. Waddle leads the team with 10 red zone targets and has seven catches, though he only has two TD out of those grabs.
In total, Achane has 33 red zone touches thus far with five total TD. Sometimes keeping it simple is just the best way to go.
Los Angeles Chargers: Ladd McConkey +900, Keenan Allen +1000
I’m very intrigued by the Seahawks in the Sam Darnold Revenge Game, but I’ve already got one RB coin flip on here with Etienne/Tuten and the prices are pretty depressed with the likelihood of Max Brosmer starting for the Vikings. So, I stay out west, but go in a different direction with the Chargers.
I mentioned this last week that I was going to fade the Chargers going west to east. As it turned out, they didn’t score a TD at all, but in all four of their early kicks, they have trailed. So, if we remove those games from the equation, they are 6/7 in other games, with the lone time they didn’t score coming against the Colts in Week 7.
McConkey is tied for the team lead with three first team TDs. Allen only has one, but using the Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool for this week, Allen has the best advantage score of any Chargers WR going up against Eric Stokes. It hasn’t been from lack of effort for Allen, who leads the team with four red zone TDs and 13 targets. McConkey leads the team with six red zone catches.
The Raiders have allowed 12 passing TD in the first half this season and the Chargers have 14 receiving TD in the red zone compared to three rushing TD this season.
There are a lot of potential mismatches this week, including Broncos over Commanders and Giants over Patriots, so hopefully you can use the First Touchdown Tracker and the other insights here to cash some tickets!
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Week 13 content in our Betting Hub.
