NFL Week 14 best bets and betting odds
A massive late fall weather system is going to affect large swaths of the country this weekend, including several cities where NFL games are taking place. Chicago, Cleveland, and Cincinnati will be affected, along with games on the East Coast in Baltimore and The Meadowlands. Totals have already been moving as a result, but don’t forget about the impact the weather has on the offensive play selection.
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Here are my favorite Week 14 NFL picks:
(Odds as of December 7, 10:05 a.m. PT)
Houston Texans (-3.5, 33.5) at New York Jets
By default, Zach Wilson is an upgrade over Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian, but this line coming down has made it a lot more playable in my opinion. It was a bigger ask to lay 6 in a game with a total in the low-to-mid 30s with a really ugly weather forecast, but this is a lot more palatable.
The Texans boast a top-five rush defense by both EPA and Success Rate since Week 7, so they’ve been doing a really strong job of keeping teams from getting the ground game going. Given the offensive line injuries and woes for the Jets, coupled with the weather, it’s hard to see the plan featuring a lot of throwing. When it does, the Texans are sixth in Pressure% and Hurry% per Pro-Football-Reference. They don’t have a lot of sacks, but have altered a lot of plays and the Jets are allowing a sack every 10 dropbacks.
Robert Saleh’s press conference about Wilson starting didn’t inspire much confidence and the defense, which still has great numbers, has shut down the likes of the Giants, Raiders, and Falcons in the last six weeks, while giving up 27, 32, and 34 to the Chargers, Bills, and Dolphins.
Pick: Texans -3.5
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 44)
There are still some 3s out there, but they are getting harder and harder to find. The Broncos have been playing some pretty good football of late and they had 1st-and-Goal against the Texans with a chance to run their winning streak out to six games. They fell short and lost the game, along with losing against the spread, but I think they have a bounce back spot here against the Chargers.
Los Angeles went to New England and won 6-0, but it was yet another lackluster showing from Brandon Staley’s bunch. The Chargers are somehow 5-7 this season, but their offense suffered with a banged-up Keenan Allen and and had lost three in a row against teams with a pulse before playing the Patriots.
The Chargers have beaten the Bears with Tyson Bagent, the Jets, and the Patriots since beating a dysfunctional Raiders bunch in Week 4 that became the first team to fire their head coach.
Since Week 7, the Broncos have a top-five defense by EPA/play and grade almost identically to the Chargers in EPA/play on offense. That should never happen with Justin Herbert at the helm. Denver’s been able to effectively run the ball and I think they find success with that again.
Unless you can find a +3, take the Broncos ML here.
Pick: Broncos ML +120
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