NFL First Touchdown
Only five weeks remain in the regular season, so time is running out to have a wide variety of matchups to analyze in the First Touchdown Scorer market. Of course, we’ll still have playoff games and the Super Bowl to ponder, but finding good values and the right games to isolate is easier when there are a lot of them.
With a more traditional week here in Week 14, we just have one Thursday game prior to a full menu on Sunday and a Monday nighter, so things are a little less hurried and a little less chaotic without the holiday and the alterations to the schedule. Maybe it will help, maybe it won’t, but it is nice to get back into the regular rhythm.
Let’s look at the first touchdown scorers by position for this season before looking at the NFL Week 14 schedule.
QB: 0 (24)
RB: 12 (126)
WR: 11 (140)
TE: 3 (57)
D/ST: 3 (18)
No TD: 2 (19)
OL: 1 (1)* – likely a refund because offensive linemen aren’t listed
Quite the week all around, as we saw the Titans and Vikings fail to score a TD for the third time this season. We also got a Tristan Wirfs TD from the Buccaneers, something that will throw off the counts for the season because that bet would have been graded No Action at most books. We had one of those last season, too, as Arizona’s Jonah Williams did it in Week 15.
That’s back-to-back weeks for the Vikings without a TD. Also, a better week, but a pretty slow one for TE and two of those three were Harold Fannin Jr. and Brock Bowers, who are more wide receiver than tight end, especially for their respective teams who don’t have very good WR.
You can always access the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker and see what has happened so far this season and make some inferences and subsequently wagers that way.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 11/12 (91.7%) |
| Jaguars | 9/12 (75%) |
| Rams | 9/12 (75%) |
| Giants | 9/13 (69.2%) |
| Bears | 8/12 (66.7%) |
| Bills | 8/12 (66.7%) |
| Eagles | 8/12 (66.7%) |
| Packers | 8/12 (66.7%) |
| Seahawks | 8/12 (66.7%) |
| Broncos | 7/12 (58.3%) |
| 49ers | 8/13 (61.5%) |
| Browns | 7/12 (58.3%) |
| Chargers | 7/12 (58.3%) |
| Dolphins | 7/12 (58.3%) |
| Lions | 7/12 (58.3%) |
| Steelers | 7/12 (58.3%) |
| Bucs | 6/12 (50%) |
| Panthers | 6/13 (46.2%) |
| Chiefs | 5/12 (41.7%) |
| Cowboys | 5/12 (41.7%) |
| Falcons | 5/12 (41.7%) |
| Raiders | 5/12 (41.7%) |
| Ravens | 5/12 (41.7%) |
| Texans | 5/12 (41.7%) |
| Bengals | 4/12 (33.3%) |
| Cardinals | 4/12 (33.3%) |
| Commanders | 4/12 (33.3%) |
| Patriots | 4/13 (30.8%) |
| Jets | 3/12 (25%) |
| Titans | 2/12 (16.7%) |
| Vikings | 2/12 (16.7%) |
| Saints | 1/12 (8.3%) |
The bottom feeders remained the same, as two of them didn’t score a touchdown and the Saints are still the Saints. It’s amazing to me that the Raiders, Vikings, and Titans have three games where they haven’t scored a TD at all and New Orleans, who has scored one in 11 of their 12 games is still the worst team on the list. Not only that, but they scored first in Week 1 and haven’t since.
In terms of some recent streaks and miscellaneous notes:
- The Falcons have scored the first TD just once since Week 6 and that one time was against the Saints two weeks ago
- Derrick Henry has scored three straight first team TDs for the Ravens and four of the six since their Week 7 bye
- The surging Bears have scored first in four straight games, three of them from running backs (Monangai 2, Swift 1)
- The Bengals haven’t had a first team TD from a RB since Week 1
- Since Week 2, Quinshon Judkins and Fannin have scored all but two of the Browns first team TDs (No TD, David Njoku, Devin Bush pick-six)
- The Jaguars have scored the first TD in four straight games
- The Rams have scored the first TD in seven straight games
- It took the Jets until Week 11 to score the first TD in game; they’ve done it three weeks in a row
I’m also tracking players to score at least three first team TDs for their teams. Here it is entering Week 14:
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) Top Scorers by Team
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 7 | 2 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 6 | 3 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 5 | 4 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 5 | 4 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 5 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 4 | 3 |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE) | 4 | 3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 4 | 3 |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 4 | 2 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 4 | 2 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 4 | 2 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 4 | 1 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 3 | 3 |
| Kenneth Gainwell (PIT) | 3 | 3 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Tyler Warren (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 3 | 2 |
| Jaxson Dart (NYG) | 3 | 2 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) | 3 | 2 |
| Ashton Jeanty (LV) | 3 | 2 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 3 | 2 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 3 | 2 |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 3 | 2 |
| D’Andre Swift (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB) | 3 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 3 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 3 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 3 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) | 3 | 1 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 3 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 3 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 3 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 3 | 0 |
| Bam Knight (ARI) | 3 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
| Raiders No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
| Titans No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
| Vikings No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
This week’s additions: Brown, Rice, Swift, Hubbard, Knight, Titans, Vikings. Corrected an error with Judkins, who scored his fourth TD in Week 12. Henry went from 6 to 7, McCaffrey went from 5 to 6, Johnston, Sutton, Adams went from 3 to 4.
With that, let’s get to the Week 14 action and look at some mismatches from 2025 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Week 14 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025
Cowboys (41.7%) at Lions (58.3%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Seahawks (66.7%) at Falcons (41.7%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Bengals (33.3%) at Bills (66.7%)
Titans (16.7%) at Browns (58.3%)
Commanders (33.3%) at Vikings (16.7%)
Dolphins (58.3%) at Jets (25%)
Saints (8.3%) at Buccaneers (50%)
Colts (91.7%) at Jaguars (75%)
Steelers (58.3%) at Ravens (41.7%)
Broncos (58.3%) at Raiders (41.7%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Bears (66.7%) at Packers (66.7%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Rams (75%) at Cardinals (33.3%)
Texans (41.7%) at Chiefs (41.7%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Eagles (66.7%) at Chargers (58.3%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Byes: Panthers (46.2%), Patriots (30.8%), Giants (69.2%), 49ers (61.5%)
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 14 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Cleveland Browns: Quinshon Judkins +340, Harold Fannin Jr. +1200
The two short shots for Cleveland here, with a good price on Fannin at 12/1 given that he has three first team TDs already and the fact that David Njoku is still battling a knee injury that limited him in practice throughout the week. Njoku still played 32 offensive snaps last week for a 51% snap share, but Fannin was out there for 58 of the 63 snaps.
It was a pretty run-heavy gameplan, even while trailing, for the Browns, so Judkins makes sense in a variety of ways. I would have taken a long shot on Gage Larvadain, given that Sanders has a lot of practice reps with him and he doubled his season catch total last week with two grabs on three targets, but he wasn’t lined at DraftKings when I was writing this.
The Browns have only allowed four first quarter TDs and just eight first half TDs overall, so even if this takes some time for Sanders and the offense, there’s some margin for error. Tennessee has only scored three first half TDs this season so far and they have allowed 16.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chris Godwin +900, Tez Johnson +1300
The Saints are having a rough season, but their run defense has actually been pretty solid. With that in mind, I’ll take a couple of receivers here for the Bucs in Godwin and Johnson. Emeka Egbuka does lead the team with 13 red zone targets, but he only has five catches inside the 20. Johnson has six catches on seven targets and leads the team with three red zone TDs. He also has two carries inside the red zone.
Godwin hasn’t caught any of his four red zone targets this season. I’m guessing Baker Mayfield would really like to get him that first TD sooner rather than later. This will be his third game back from injury and I think we should see his snaps and target share increase as we move forward.
The Saints have allowed 16 passing TD in the first half this season and 23 in total. They have only scored one TD in the first quarter.
Los Angeles Rams: Davante Adams +450, Kyren Williams +600
The KISS – Keep It Simple, Stupid – approach is what I’m going with here, as the Rams take on a Cardinals team that has had some issues in this department. All three NFC West games they have played have seen the opposition score first. The Rams are one of the strongest teams in the NFL at this and haven’t even played Arizona yet.
Adams leads the NFL with 28 red zone targets. Williams is ninth in red zone attempts, but he was first last season and has 106 such carries over the last two regular seasons. He has 18 first team TDs for the Rams in the last two years. Adams’ presence has taken away some of his attempts and opportunities, but that’s also allowing us to get him at 6/1 here.
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Week 14 content in our Betting Hub.
