Week 14 NFL Predictions
The calendar has turned to December, which means we’re on the home stretch of the NFL regular season and teams are jockeying for playoff positioning and divisional supremacy. The Patriots sit atop the AFC East on a 10-game winning streak, the Ravens weathered the Lamar Jackson injury to sit atop a tight AFC North division, Jacksonville has climbed atop the AFC South but has a showdown with Indianapolis this week, and Denver has a comfortable lead in the AFC West. In the NFC, Philadelphia is again in first in the East, Chicago has taken control of the North, Tampa Bay is on top in the South but has Carolina nipping at their heels, and the Rams and Seahawks are battling at the top of the West. Now, for the fun part. Let’s see where TSI indicates there’s value on this Week 14 slate.
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts (-1.5), O/U 47.5
As mentioned above, these teams are battling for the divisional title in the AFC South, and they’ll face off Sunday in Jacksonville. TSI projects the Jags as a one-point home favorite, though the market is currently favoring Indianapolis by a point and a half, though it has moved toward Jacksonville. Both teams are playing good football and both have been really good in their respective home/road splits. The Colts are 3-2 ATS on the road, while the Jags are 4-1 ATS at home. Both are 6-4 ATS in their last 10. My market estimation formula favors Jacksonville by two based on how these teams have been priced, so I think we’re getting a good number at anything beyond a pick ‘em here.
NFL Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5
Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Commanders (-1.5), O/U 42
Another game with a spread of less than two points, this one having much lower stakes than the Colts/Jaguars game, though. Washington is coming off a tough overtime loss to Denver on Sunday, while Minnesota got shut out by Seattle, 26-0. I’m not sure what the data would say, but my suspicion is that NFL teams who get shut out one week tend to do very well ATS the next game as the market overreacts to the previous week. Minnesota looked awful, and QB Max Brosmer was as bad as advertised in his first start for JJ McCarthy. McCarthy is expected back this week, though, so you can upgrade accordingly (though, I don’t think it’s that much of an upgrade). TSI projects Minnesota -3 here. My market estimation is Minnesota -3.5, so we’re seeing a huge overreaction to the shutout last week against a really good Seattle team. I look for Minnesota to bounce back and get the cover and win here against the Commanders.
NFL Pick: Minnesota Vikings +1.5
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