Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
The Vikings are 9-0 in one-score games this season. That is remarkable, considering they went 6-8 in games decided by eight points or fewer last season. In their last three meetings with the Lions, the average winning margin has been 2.7, with the Vikings winning two of those.
Despite the Vikings’ recent success, the market has fallen in love with their opponent. The Lions originally opened as a 3-point underdog and we have seen that flip to Detroit as high as a 2.5-point favorite. One might think it could reflect a lack of confidence in the Vikings, but probably has more to do with the fact Dan Campbell’s offense has been one of the most efficient in the NFL. The Lions have won three of their last four games, averaging about 32 points. Detroit also leads the league in red-zone efficiency, scoring a touchdown on 74% of their attempts. The Lions should have no issues moving the ball against a Vikings defense that is surrendering 6.0 yards per play this season (30th).
We’ve also seen the total spike from 51.5 to 53.5. We know Detroit will be able to move the ball and score, but can the Vikings? Well, considering Minnesota is top 10 in red-zone efficiency (61.4%) and Detroit is 31st in defensive red-zone efficiency (67%), you’d be safe to imagine so. Oh, and let’s not forget, the Lions defense is surrendering the most yards per play in the NFL (6.2).