Week 15 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

Bill Belichick’s decision to go back to school at an old age is surprising yet not unprecedented. Rodney Dangerfield did it in a hit movie in 1986, when he enrolled at Grand Lakes University. Belichick, 72, is not coaching at the University of North Carolina for laughs. He’s serious about tackling a unique challenge and will likely lead the Tar Heels to a bowl game next season.

It would be awkward watching arguably the greatest coach in NFL history stalking the sidelines in the Gator Bowl instead of another Super Bowl, but everything about Belichick’s exit from New England was awkward. He wanted to quit on quarterback Tom Brady too soon, made several other player personnel blunders and went a career-worst 4-13 in 2023 while losing his final game to the New York Jets. It was far from a storybook ending.

 

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This new beginning, in my opinion, is partly about Belichick giving a middle finger to the NFL for not wanting him anymore. He was disrespected during the Atlanta Falcons’ coaching search last year, and the potential landing spots for him after this season — Chicago, Dallas, Jacksonville and the New York Giants — were not good fits with flawed organizations.

Belichick is already a winner in the North Carolina deal. He’s got a five-year contract at $10 million per year, with the first three years guaranteed. He’s got a big budget to work with and all the power to hire an impressive staff full of friends — Michael Lombardi is leaving VSiN to be the general manager of the North Carolina program — and family, including his son, Stephen. It’s too soon to make any bold predictions other than Belichick’s college experience is guaranteed to be intriguing.

I thought Belichick would end up in Dallas, but the Cowboys keep finding ways to be losers, and that’s a transition to my five best bets for NFL Week 15:

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)

Carolina is the hottest team in the league, at least in terms of ATS success. Behind rejuvenated quarterback Bryce Young, the Panthers have covered all five of their games since Nov. 3 and their three losses were by one score to the Eagles, Buccaneers and Chiefs. This is a matchup of a young team that’s fighting for first-year coach Dave Canales against an injury-riddled, underachieving team that seems uninspired to fight for a clueless old coach in Mike McCarthy. The Cowboys (5-8) are 4-2 on the road, and McCarthy no longer needs to be concerned about being replaced by Belichick, so there is an argument to be made for Dallas. The Panthers’ 33-game streak as underdogs is ending, so the role-reversal situation is concerning from the Carolina angle. Still, I’ll go with the hot team that’s more motivated.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Carolina Panthers -2.5

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)

Where would Philadelphia be without Saquon Barkley, the league’s leading rusher with 1,623 yards? The Eagles would not be 11-2, three games up on Washington in the NFC East race, and riding a nine-game winning streak. Barkley has fueled the offense while quarterback Jalen Hurts flops. Hurts passed for a total of only 226 yards and took six sacks in the past two games when the Eagles were outgained by Carolina and Baltimore. Pittsburgh’s offense lacks explosive plays, and that’s unlikely to change with wideout George Pickens out, but its defense can contain Barkley and harass Hurts. The Steelers have lost three games, all by margins of five points or fewer, and coach Mike Tomlin is 5-0 straight up as an underdog.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-2.5)

Josh Allen was awesome last week, passing for 342 yards and three touchdowns and running for 82 yards and three touchdowns, but the Bills came up short in a 44-42 shootout with the Rams. Back-to-back road games make this a tough spot for Buffalo, which is in an even tougher spot because its defense is banged up and vulnerable against the run. Detroit has a dominant offensive line and the fourth-ranked rushing attack (151 yards per game) in the league. Jared Goff and the Lions also boast the No. 1 scoring offense (32.1 ppg). Allen and the Bills rank No. 2 (30.5 ppg). It might be easier to bet this Over the total of 54.5, but I’m picking sides here and I lean to the Detroit side due to its offensive line and scheduling advantage.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Detroit Lions -2.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

A week after pushing the Chiefs to the limit in a 19-17 loss in Kansas City, the Chargers could hit a flat spot. Battered and bruised quarterback Justin Herbert is set to start, so that’s good news for the Chargers, but the bad news is Herbert has an injured ankle, the running attack has regressed, and the offense has produced a total of only 26 points in the past two games. The Chargers might need to win this with kicker Cameron Dicker, who’s 28-for-30 on field goals, and their top-ranked scoring defense (15.9 ppg). Tampa Bay needs a near-flawless performance from Baker Mayfield, who has thrown 13 interceptions in 13 games. This line looks a bit low at -3, and it’s trending toward 2.5, so the betting market indicates the underdog is live.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

Atlanta Falcons (-4) at Las Vegas Raiders

Kirk Cousins leads the league with 15 interceptions, including eight in the past four games, for an Atlanta team on a four-game losing skid. Las Vegas has not named its starting quarterback, and if Aidan O’Connell can’t go with a knee injury, it will be Desmond Ridder, a third-round pick by the Falcons in 2022. This could be Ridder’s revenge and the end of the Raiders’ nine-game losing streak. The Las Vegas offense is a mystery, but there are reasons to believe Maxx Crosby and the defense will do enough to keep the ‘dog in the fight on Monday night.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders +4

For more NFL Week 15 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 15 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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