Week 15 NFL
Welcome to the Week 15 edition of “TSI vs the Field,” my weekly article where I analyze the NFL slate through the lens of respected predictive models to see where there is the most consensus and the most disagreement, which is valuable in determining which bets to potentially make and which ones to stay away from if the data is mixed.
Here are the biggest model agreements and disagreements in Week 15:
Note: TeamRankings is a popular sports resource website, FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Note 2: TeamRankings also has the PoolGenius product, a great Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em resource.
Week 15 NFL Odds Model Alignment
Carolina Panthers (-2.5) vs New Orleans Saints, O/U 40.5
Carolina has been surprisingly competent this year and sits at 7-6 straight up and 8-5 ATS. The Saints have been predictably bad, and are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 and just 1-5 ATS at home. Carolina, despite its 7 wins, has been a favorite just once and is 0-1 ATS in that spot. New Orleans has actually covered two straight games, including beating the Bucs outright last week as 7.5-point dogs.
The average model projection on this game is Panthers -1.7 with a variance of just 1.1. All four projections fall between Panthers -1 and Panthers -2, indicating value on the Saints at 2.5 or better. There are some offshore 3s available, so I’d stay patient if you want to trust the models and back the Saints here with the Panthers in unfamiliar favorite territory.
NFL Pick: New Orleans Saints +2.5
Week 15 NFL Odds Model Disagreement
Houston Texans (-9.5) vs Arizona Cardinals, O/U 42
Arizona has been dreadful lately, losing their last five games and going just 1-4 ATS in the process, losing by an average of 15 points per game. Houston, meanwhile, has caught fire and is riding a 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS hot streak, which has pushed this number all the way out to 9.5.
The average model projection for this game is Houston -8, largely impacted by TSI’s mere 3-point projection on this game, while FPI joins TSI on the Cardinals plus the points. Sagarin and TeamRankings project Texans -10 and -11, respectively, so there seems to be a wide array of possibilities here. Obviously, TSI is my personal source of truth, so I backed the Cardinals, but there’s certainly enough mixed data here for you to understandably pass.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Fridays, my Tuesday NFL best bets, and my Thursday college football picks.
