Week 15 NFL Odds
Some games went according to plan and some games didn’t this past week in the NFL. We also had some extremely noteworthy injuries. Those things all lead to adjustments in the betting markets and Week 15 odds look a little bit different than they did when lookahead lines were posted and started to see some action.
While the focus here is on Week 15, we do still have one NFL game left for Week 14 and Zachary Cohen has your preview for Eagles vs. Chargers.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 15 NFL Odds Report:
Odds as of Monday, December 8 at 1:40 a.m. PT
Falcons at Buccaneers (-5, 44)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
It was not a good weekend for either of these NFC South squads, as the Falcons got pummeled at home by the Seahawks and the Buccaneers got an awful performance from Baker Mayfield in a very costly loss to the Saints. It was costly for Tampa Bay, given that the Panthers are right there in the standings, but also for those left standing in Survivor contests who got eliminated by the Bucs. This line was primarily in that 5.5 range, but we did have some 6.5s in the lookahead market that have now come down.
Cardinals at Texans (-9.5, 42.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
A very strong Sunday Night Football showing from the surging Texans has bumped this line up quite a bit. We also got the news this past week that Kyler Murray would not return for the Cardinals and his tenure with Arizona may very well be over. Jacoby Brissett has filled in well enough, but the Cardinals are basically in tank mode at this stage of the game. Houston’s top-tier defense has spearheaded this run, but with CJ Stroud back, they’re being priced at about the top of the market. That’s true here, with 9.5 at DraftKings as of Sunday night, a big adjustment from 6.5 or 7 as of last week.
Jets at Jaguars (-11.5, 42.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Another team being priced at about the top of the market is the Jaguars, who comfortably beat the Colts this past week. The Jets, meanwhile, got smothered by the Dolphins, as they reverted back to their early-season ways. Things had been going a bit better for the AFC version of New York, but that wasn’t the case in Week 14 and Jacksonville kept up the momentum that has been carrying first-year head coach Liam Coen all the way to the top of the division standings. The lookahead line was 8.5 or 9.5, but as you can see, it has jumped significantly.
Browns at Bears (-7, 40.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
The Browns actually got a pretty good performance from Shedeur Sanders in Week 14, but the defense and special teams faltered, so Cleveland lost at home to Tennessee. Losing to a team like the Titans isn’t really good for your market perception or your point spreads,however, this line pretty much stayed where it was because Chicago got bet against and then lost to Green Bay. The total is the area of interest here, as we’ve seen a slight move up off of a 364-yard effort from Sanders.
Bills at Patriots (-1, 49.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
The market is pretty split on this game, with New England favored at the sharper shops and Buffalo favored at the more public shops as of Sunday night. The Bills outlasted the Bengals in the shootout that we all expected and it is worth noting that this total has been bumped up a couple of points from where the lookahead line was. The Patriots are coming off of the bye here, so they didn’t really have the chance to impress or change opinions, but Buffalo did drop 39 points on Cincinnati in some adverse conditions, hence the total bump.
Ravens (-2, 52) at Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
A rematch of the Thanksgiving game between these two teams that Cincinnati won 26-14, as their defense actually showed up for one of the few times this season. It seems as though the market isn’t really expecting a repeat performance of that, hence the total sitting in the 50s for this one. But, one thing that we have seen is the market going against Baltimore in the early going, pushing this one down from the key number of 3 to as low as 1.5. While the Bengals lost to the Bills as expected, the Ravens had a really poor effort as a favorite against the Steelers. I doubt this line is done moving down.
Commanders at Giants (-2, 47.5)
1 p.m. ET
A flipped favorite scenario here, as Jayden Daniels got hurt again and the Commanders got shut out by Minnesota, while the Giants had a bye week to tend to some bruises and nagging injuries. This is a perfect case of a team not having a data point against a team that had a really terrible data point and so we see the line adjust in the way that it did. As more comes out about the Daniels injury, we’ll see this line react appropriately.
Colts at Seahawks (-10.5, 42.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
The worst-case scenario for the reeling Colts came true on Sunday, as Daniel Jones was lost for the season with an Achilles injury. As of now, Riley Leonard is the only QB on the roster and he’s likely to get the call here, as Anthony Richardson is still on IR himself. We’ll see if that ends up being the case and if it does, I would fully expect this line to go up even more, especially with the Seahawks off of a strong effort on the road against Atlanta. As it is, we’ve seen about a touchdown adjustment from the lookahead line and have also seen the total drop by about 3.5 points.
Packers (-2, 42) at Broncos
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Packers are really held in high regard by the betting market. They grew into a bigger favorite against Chicago and covered and now find themselves a road favorite against the Broncos. Denver backers got burned by an all-timer, as they won by 7 in a game that they probably should have won by 10 as an 8-point favorite. Had they won by 10, would this line look a little different? Maybe, but I do think that there are a lot of Packers supporters and ongoing skeptics about the Broncos, so here we are with a road favorite price that has grown slightly from the lookahead number.
Panthers (-2.5, 39.5) at Saints
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Panthers and Saints do battle here, as it seems like New Orleans is going to carry a lot of influence as to what happens in the NFC South race. The Saints beating the Buccaneers was a great development for the idle Panthers, who now return from the bye tied atop the division standings. It was also a really nice win for the Saints, who have looked a lot better of late than their 3-10 record would indicate. They’ve got a feisty defense, as evidenced by this total. You would have found -3 on Carolina last week, but you won’t find it now.
Lions at Rams (-5, 54.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
The biggest total on the board for Week 15 is this one, as the Lions and Rams battle it out at SoFi Stadium. This total did get bumped up rather significantly from the lookahead line after Detroit’s 44-30 win over the Cowboys this past Thursday. The Rams dropped 45 on the hapless Cardinals, so we saw this total go up about four points from where it was. With both teams meeting, and even exceeding, Week 14 expectations, the spread did move slightly in LA’s favor, likely due to the fact that their defense didn’t give up 30 points like Detroit’s did.
Titans at 49ers (-12.5, 44.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Apparently a win over the Browns doesn’t really do a whole lot to inspire confidence in a team, as the Titans were basically lined right around here last week and this line didn’t really swing one way or the other. The 49ers were off, so couple back-to-back road games for the Titans with the long travel out west to take on a rested opponent and you can see why beating Cleveland wouldn’t carry as much weight, even for a team that won for just the second time this season.
Vikings at Cowboys (-6.5, 47.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Sunday Night Football features the Vikings and Cowboys and Dallas in a primetime spot is going to encourage a lot of Over money, so it isn’t shocking to see this total up a half-point or a full point relative to where it was in the lookahead markets. We have also seen an adjustment on the spread, pulling Dallas down below the key number of 7 to sit on 6 or 6.5 as of Sunday night. Minnesota’s impressive 31-0 win over Washington coupled with Dallas giving up 44 points to Detroit warranted an adjusted spread and that’s precisely what we got.
Dolphins at Steelers (-3.5, 42)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike Tomlin is going to do it again, isn’t he? The Steelers head coach has never posted a losing season and this past week’s win over the Ravens has his team at 7-6 and one game ahead of Baltimore for the top spot in the pillow fight that is the AFC North playoff race. Even though Miami played well against the Jets and took care of their affairs as expected, we’ve got Pittsburgh at a slightly higher price now than they were going into Week 14. Most of the lookahead numbers were -3 with extra vig, but now we have 3.5 painted across the majority of the market.
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