Week 15 NFL Predictions
We’re heading down the home stretch of the regular season and no team has clinched a playoff spot, which means there’s plenty of meaningful football still to be played in the NFL throughout December and into January. NFL.com currently gives eight teams a 90% or better chance to make the playoffs: Denver, New England, Jacksonville, Buffalo, LA Rams, Green Bay, Seattle and Philadelphia. That means there are still four spots up for grabs in each conference, with about seven teams per conference still mathematically in the mix. Playoff and draft positioning motivation becomes a big handicapping factor this time of year, so definitely take a peek at the standings before making any spread bets. That being said, let’s get to the TSI projections and bets for Week 15:
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
New England (+1) vs Buffalo, O/U 49.5
While both teams are firmly in the playoff picture, they’re battling for the AFC East crown, so organizational motivation is theoretically equal here. However, I think the Patriots have a huge situational advantage, as they’re coming off a bye week while Buffalo had to battle the elements and Joe Burrow’s Bengals before winning a shootout, 39-34. While that was a great win, I wonder how much of a physical and emotional toll that game took out of the Bills, and they’ll now have to travel to Foxboro to take on Drake Maye and the Patriots. TSI projects New England -1 here, and we’re seeing the market slowly start to drift that way, so don’t be surprised if this closes as a pick ‘em or with the Patriots favored.
NFL Pick: New England Patriots +1
Indianapolis (+13.5) vs Seattle, O/U 42.5
Daniel Jones is out for Indianapolis with an Achilles injury, which has the market in a hurry to back the Seahawks here; however, TSI only projects Seattle -3 with a healthy Jones, and while he’s been way better than anticipated this season, he’s not worth 10.5 points to the spread. The Colts are 3-1 ATS so far this season as underdogs, although in fairness, Seattle is 8-2 ATS as favorites, but have a tricky spot here with a Thursday Night showdown with the Rams looming next week, so it makes sense that they’d want to just get in and get out of this game healthy with a win, not worrying about margin. I’d keep an eye on the market to see if a +14 pops up, but I’d still play it at 13.5, as I think this is a good number and spot for the Colts.
NFL Pick: Indianapolis Colts +13.5
For more Week 15 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 15 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
