NFL First Touchdown
Just three weeks remain in the NFL regular season. It’s a bummer not to have 32 teams available in the First Touchdown Scorer market, but this article will continue all the way through the Super Bowl. We just won’t have the same sample size. Fortunately, we’ve been able to really hone in on teams that are doing well of late, those who have fallen off the pace, and those who may be in line for some positive or negative regression, if there’s enough time for that to happen.
After a week full of big favorites, we have a lot more reasonable lines this week and it’ll be interesting to survey what that has done in terms of the pricing on some of the teams and players. And remember, even if this doesn’t help hit the first touchdown scorer, at least you can make some first quarter or first half wagers or maybe take a shot in the Anytime TD market.
Let’s look at the first touchdown scorers by position for this season before looking at the NFL Week 16 schedule.
QB: 2 (29)
RB: 12 (150)
WR: 9 (155)
TE: 5 (65)
D/ST: 0 (20)
No TD: 4 (25)
OL: 0 (1)* – likely a refund because offensive linemen aren’t listed
Another week of running backs closing the gap against wide receivers. We also saw a nice uptick for the tight end position after several weeks of not really serving as much of a factor.
The bigger story is probably offensive futility, as both Ohio teams failed to score a TD, along with the hapless and hopeless Raiders and, surprisingly, the Seahawks, who beat the Colts on the strength of six Jason Myers field goals. The Raiders became the first team to have four games without a TD this season.
You can always access the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker and see what has happened so far this season and make some inferences and subsequently wagers that way.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 12/14 (85.7%) |
| Jaguars | 11/14 (78.6%) |
| 49ers | 9/14 (64.3%) |
| Bears | 9/14 (64.3%) |
| Broncos | 9/14 (64.3%) |
| Eagles | 9/14 (64.3%) |
| Giants | 9/14 (64.3%) |
| Lions | 9/14 (64.3%) |
| Packers | 9/14 (64.3%) |
| Rams | 9/14 (64.3%) |
| Seahawks | 9/14 (64.3%) |
| Steelers | 9/14 (64.3%) |
| Bills | 8/14 (57.1%) |
| Chargers | 8/14 (57.1%) |
| Dolphins | 8/14 (57.1%) |
| Browns | 7/14 (50%) |
| Bucs | 7/14 (50%) |
| Panthers | 7/14 (50%) |
| Texans | 7/14 (50%) |
| Chiefs | 6/14 (42.9%) |
| Cowboys | 6/14 (42.9%) |
| Ravens | 6/14 (42.9%) |
| Bengals | 5/14 (35.7%) |
| Cardinals | 5/14 (35.7%) |
| Commanders | 5/14 (35.7%) |
| Falcons | 5/14 (35.7%) |
| Patriots | 5/14 (35.7%) |
| Raiders | 5/14 (35.7%) |
| Jets | 3/14 (21.4%) |
| Titans | 3/14 (21.4%) |
| Vikings | 3/14 (21.4%) |
| Saints | 2/14 (14.3%) |
No big surprises or shake-ups in Week 15. The Saints continue to bring up the rear, along with the Jets, Titans, and Vikings. The Patriots did score the first TD against the Bills and lost, so maybe they should get back to not scoring first so that they can win. The Raiders have actually scored the first TD in 5/10 games where they’ve scored one. They should concentrate on scoring them every game.
In terms of some recent streaks and miscellaneous notes:
- Another week of not scoring the first TD for the Falcons, who have only done it in 2/10 games since their Week 5 bye and one was in Week 6
- With Rasheen Ali’s first TD for the Ravens, a RB has scored the first TD in 10 of their 14 games and 10 of the 13 when they’ve scored one (No TD Week 6)
- After starting 8/11 for the season, the Bills have not scored first each of the last three weeks
- The Bears have scored the first TD in five of the last six weeks, but none of them on their first possession
- After scoring on their first possession in six of the first nine games, the Lions have not done that in five straight, but are 3/5 in scoring first in that span
- Josh Jacobs has scored the first TD for the Packers in four of the five games where they have failed to score first
- The Jaguars have scored the first TD in six straight games
- The Raiders have not scored the first TD in five straight games
- Darren Waller scored the first Dolphins team TD for a TE since he did it back in Week 4
- The Steelers have scored the first TD in three straight and four of five
- The 49ers have scored the first TD in four straight games, including three on their first possession
I’m also tracking players to score at least three first team TDs for their teams. Here it is entering Week 16:
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) Top Scorers by Team
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 7 | 2 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 6 | 4 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 6 | 3 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 5 | 4 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 5 | 4 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 5 | 3 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 5 | 2 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 5 | 1 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 4 | 3 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 4 | 3 |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE) | 4 | 3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 4 | 3 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 4 | 3 |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 4 | 2 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 4 | 2 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 4 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 4 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle (CAR) | 3 | 3 |
| Travis Etienne (JAX) | 3 | 3 |
| Kenneth Gainwell (PIT) | 3 | 3 |
| Tyler Warren (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Jaxson Dart (NYG) | 3 | 2 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) | 3 | 2 |
| Dallas Goedert (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Ashton Jeanty (LV) | 3 | 2 |
| Jauan Jennings (SF) | 3 | 2 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 3 | 2 |
| Woody Marks (HOU) | 3 | 2 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 3 | 2 |
| Josh Oliver (MIN) | 3 | 2 |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 3 | 2 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 3 | 2 |
| D’Andre Swift (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB) | 3 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 3 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 3 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 3 | 1 |
| Trey McBride (ARI) | 3 | 1 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) | 3 | 1 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 3 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 3 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 3 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 3 | 0 |
| Bam Knight (ARI) | 3 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
| Raiders No Touchdown | 4 | 0 |
| Titans No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
| Vikings No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
This week’s additions: Dowdle, Goedert, Jennings, St. Brown, Mahomes, McBride. J. Williams went from 4 to 5, Collins, Raiders No TD went from 3 to 4.
With that, let’s get to the Week 16 action and look at some mismatches from 2025 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Week 16 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025
Rams (64.3%) at Seahawks (64.3%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Eagles (64.3%) at Commanders (35.7%) – Saturday, 5 p.m. ET
Packers (64.3%) at Bears (64.3%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Bills (57.1%) at Browns (50%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Chargers (57.1%) at Cowboys (42.9%)
Chiefs (42.9%) at Titans (21.4%)
Bengals (35.7%) at Dolphins (57.1%)
Jets (21.4%) at Saints (14.3%)
Vikings (21.4%) at Giants (64.3%)
Buccaneers (50%) at Panthers (50%)
Jaguars (78.6%) at Broncos (64.3%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Falcons (35.7%) at Cardinals (35.7%)
Steelers (64.3%) at Lions (64.3%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Raiders (35.7%) at Texans (50%)
Patriots (35.7%) at Ravens (42.9%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
49ers (64.3%) at Colts (85.7%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 16 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Philadelphia Eagles: Dallas Goedert +900, Tank Bigsby +4000
Alright, we’re going to take a couple of shots here and skirt the short prices on Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, and A.J. Brown, who are all +650 or lower. There are five Eagles with shorter numbers than any Commanders players, so the only reason we’re getting okay values on the Philly guys is because of all the options. Barkley, Hurts, Brown, and Goedert all have three first team TDs.
But, it’s Goedert who has caught 10 of his 11 red zone targets and has eight TD catches on the season. Brown, DeVonta Smith, John Metchie, and Jahan Dotson have 14 catches on 27 targets. So, Goedert has been the most efficient of the pass catchers in the red zone by a large margin.
Bigsby is a true gamble, but there’s some method to the madness. Bigsby has 11 total carries in the red zone, but he’s had eight of them in the last five weeks, while Barkley has had 17 red zone carries. With the division a virtual certainty for Philly at this point, I can’t help but wonder if we see those short-yardage carries minimized for Barkley and Hurts. If so, Bigsby at a big number is worthy of a look.
The Commanders have allowed eight first quarter pass TDs and only one rush TD, so that’s something to consider if you’re looking at the Eagles.
Houston Texans: Woody Marks +425, Nico Collins +450
Nothing exciting or flashy here, but just kind of playing the numbers and the huge favorite role coupled with an elite defense. The Raiders have allowed nine first quarter TD and 21 first half TD compared to six and 12, respectively, for the Texans. So, I’ll take my chances there.
Collins (4) and Marks (3) have half of the Texans’ first team TDs on the season. Christian Kirk has lost ground to Jayden Higgins, who hasn’t really been an option for CJ Stroud. He’s mostly looking for Collins. Over the last six weeks, these two have four of the six first team TDs. Over the last two weeks, Collins is the only WR with a red zone target.
Over the last five weeks, Marks has 19 red zone carries compared to 13 for Dare Ogunbowale, Nick Chubb, and Jawhar Jordan combined. Ogunbowale and Jordan had four each last week, but that was likely just a game state thing. The Texans should have scored their first TD before those guys are getting snaps.
Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase +500; Miami Dolphins: Darren Waller +1600
There aren’t many mismatches this week, so I’m going to do something different here and take opposing players in the same game. The Dolphins have been better in this department than the Bengals, but Joe Burrow missed a lot of time and Miami has now transitioned to Quinn Ewers.
After all the questions that Burrow has faced following last week’s putrid offensive performance, and a lot of queries about his commitment to playing football, he could want to put on a show in South Florida. Usually that includes targeting Chase, who has 10 catches on 19 red zone targets.
The Waller pick is because of what the Bengals defense has done, or, well, hasn’t done, against TE. The Bengals have allowed 15 touchdowns to tight ends this season. The next highest team is the Steelers with 10 allowed. The Bengals have allowed 1,276 yards to TE, which is over 300 more yards than any team (Dolphins, ironically). The Bengals have allowed the most targets and receptions to that position as well.
I don’t know that Miami will score first, but this price is too good to pass up.
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Week 16 content in our Betting Hub.
