Week 16 NFL Odds
It was not a very good Sunday around the NFL in Week 15. There were several significant injuries, including some scary moments, and the double-digit favorites were all able to take care of their affairs. Only the Seahawks had trouble, as Philip Rivers and the Colts put up a great fight in an 18-16 loss. There was a little bit of drama, some mild upsets, and a barnburner in LA, but I think we can all agree that the hope is for Week 16 to go better.
We still have one game left to go between the Dolphins and Steelers on Monday Night Football and Zachary Cohen has your preview for that one. Otherwise, the other 30 NFL teams are looking ahead to Week 16. We’re at the point now where you do wonder a little bit about tanking or about players maybe not giving full efforts. Something to consider and something that can have an impact on the adjustments made from the lookahead lines to the re-posted numbers on Sunday evening.
Also, note that we do have our first Saturday NFL games this week, so don’t forget about that for fantasy football and any pick ‘em contests that you’ve got going.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 16 NFL Odds Report:
Odds as of Sunday, December 14 at 9:15 p.m. PT
Rams (-1, 44) at Seahawks
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
What a banger we have here to open up the week. NFC West rivals in a battle for first place on a short week in the Pacific Northwest. This line pretty much flip-flopped from where it was on the lookahead market, as the Seahawks were mostly -1 or -1.5 there. After an uninspiring performance against the Colts as nearly a two-touchdown favorite, we now see the Rams favored across the board. It is definitely interesting to see to say the least. It’s also interesting to see the total bumped down a couple of points, even though the Rams have put up 40 burgers back-to-back weeks. Keep in mind, though, that Davante Adams left hurt with a bad hammy and Puka Nacua suffered a very scary hit to the spine, but did return. Still, Matthew Stafford could be shorthanded.
Eagles (-6, 44.5) at Commanders
Saturday, 5 p.m. ET
Give credit where credit is due. One of the upsets in Week 15 was the Commanders over the Giants, as Washington shook off another Jayden Daniels injury and beat a rested New York team coming off of the bye. Washington never trailed in ending their eight-game losing streak with their first win in more than two months. It was just business as usual for the Eagles, who needed a layup and got exactly that against the hopeless Raiders with a 31-0 victory. This line opened as low as 4.5 last week and moved to 5 or 5.5 before getting re-posted at 6 for the most part today. I don’t know. Feels a little high to me.
Packers (-1.5, 47.5) at Bears
Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET
There were two significant ACL tears in Week 15 and Micah Parsons suffered one of them. A defensive player, even as great as Parsons is, won’t alter the line due to injury, but it’s obviously something you want to think about in your handicap. The Packers are laying a short road number against the Bears and it has gotten shorter, as you could find anywhere from -1.5 to -2.5 on Sunday evening. DraftKings got as high as 3.5 last week. Maybe the Parsons injury is involved here, but it’s more about how the Packers lost to the Broncos and how the Bears dominated the Browns, as people may have to come to terms with the fact that Chicago is for real, despite their point differential relative to their record.
Bills (-10, 43.5) at Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
The Browns failed to score a touchdown for the second time this season as they fell to the Bears by 28. The Bills scored five touchdowns against the Patriots and needed every one of them to emerge with a 35-31 win after trailing 24-7 at half. It was a really good win for Buffalo and it seems set up for the positive vibes to keep rolling with a visit to Cleveland. The Bills defense still has plenty of problems, but the Browns are a disaster on offense, so Buffalo’s biggest weakness shouldn’t be one in Week 16. That’s among the reasons why we’ve seen this line go up from 8.5 to as high as 10.5.
Jets at Saints (-4, 40)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
One team that had an enjoyable Sunday was the Saints, as Kellen Moore has that team moving in the right direction with back-to-back wins against division opponents. It isn’t always pretty, but the Saints are more than a field goal favorite against the Jets and several shops were showing 4.5 as of Sunday night. This line was 3 or 3.5 in the lookahead market, but moved up. We’ll have to wait and see if the Jets roll out Brady Cook again or if one of their veteran QBs will be able to go. If it’s Cook again, this line will point north.
Vikings (-2.5, 44.5) at Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
After knocking off an NFC East team in Week 15, the Vikings will try to do it again in Week 16 against the Giants. The market was a little bit slow to post this game following Sunday Night Football. Jaxson Dart was checked for a concussion and passed that test and returned to the game, so it isn’t a QB injury or anything to that effect. Minnesota’s win paired with New York’s loss did alter this number a bit from the lookahead line of -1.5 out to -2.5 on the Vikings side of the ledger. The total also got a nice bump up to 44.5.
Buccaneers (-2.5, 46) at Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
A massive game here in the NFC South standings, made even bigger by the fact that the Saints knocked off the Panthers just a week after knocking off the Bucs. Tampa Bay is on extra rest here, so we’ll see if that benefits them at all, given that they’ve dealt with a lot of injuries this season. The Bucs also had a bruised ego to tend to after giving away last week’s game against the Falcons. With two uninspiring efforts out of these teams, the lookahead line was 2.5 and that’s pretty much what we’re dealing with here.
Chiefs (-3, 37.5) at Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
This line was as high as 11.5 in the lookahead markets, but between Patrick Mahomes’ torn ACL and the Chiefs eliminated from playoff contention, the line really bottomed out. DraftKings reopened it at 4.5 and the Titans took the initial money, with the line moving to 3.5. Superbook Sports also reopened it at 4.5, but they’re giving Gardner Minshew a little more respect by sitting on 4. Circa had the low number at -3 with -115 on the Chiefs. I guess we’ll simply have to see where this one goes because there are a lot of reasons not to like KC, but the Titans are the worst team in the NFL for a reason. The total moved down about 3.5 points from the lookahead line as well.
Chargers at Cowboys (-1.5, 49.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Dallas was as high as -2.5 in the lookahead markets, but the home loss in primetime to the Vikings paired with a Chargers win over the Chiefs moved this line down and, to be completely honest, I think we’ll likely get to a point where the Chargers are favored. LA has had some difficulty on the road this season, especially with some early starts, but at least the travel isn’t as daunting as others have been. The box score says that Dallas had a big yardage edge against the Vikings, but that’s because they ran 17 more plays. The yards per play fell in favor of Minnesota and I think that will set some things in motion on Monday morning as yards per play based betting models take in the data.
Falcons (-1.5, 46) at Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
We head to the 4 p.m. window to take a look at those games, as we have a battle of the birds here. The Falcons are on some extra rest, so the long trek to the desert shouldn’t be as problematic as it might have been on a regular week. They are also flying high after a win over the Buccaneers, while the Cardinals just continue to play out the string on the season. It takes a lot these days for Kirk Cousins to be a road favorite, but it sure seems like this is “a lot”. This is a flipped favorite scenario at DraftKings, as the lookahead line was Cardinals -1.5. They were also the high mark in the market at -2.5 as of Sunday night on the Falcons.
Jaguars at Broncos (-3, 45.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
A high-scoring affair between the Broncos and Packers led to a boost in this total, as the game was primarily 43 or 43.5 in the lookahead markets and is now as high as 45.5. The Jaguars also played a high-scoring game, as Trevor Lawrence had five TD passes in a 48-20 win over the Jets. The lookahead spread here was 2.5 or 3, with varying juice across the market, so we haven’t seen a substantive change to the side, but that upgrade to the total is what stands out the most.
Raiders at Texans (-14, 37)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Some very, very rare air with this spread and total combination. According to the Killer Sports database, the last time we had a line of 14+ points with a total of 37 or lower was Week 12 of the 2020 season. Before that, the last game to fit that criteria was Week 16 of the 2010 (!!) season. It is a combination that we might see in college football, but we almost never see in the NFL. The Texans do have an elite defense and the Raiders are elite at being bad, so it makes some sense when you think about it, but it is still a stunning combination to see. DraftKings even had 14.5 on Houston as of Sunday night, as this spread was bumped up a few points from the lookahead number.
Patriots at Ravens (-2.5, 48)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Baltimore got back on track with a shutout win over the Bengals and that performance was enough to push this line on the precipice of going to -3. Most of the 2.5s out there do have some extra juice slapped on them, so we’ll see if the scale does tip at some point early in the week here. Baltimore was favored in the lookahead markets, but more like -1 or -1.5, not the 2.5 that we see here. Interestingly enough, when DraftKings had all the lines up prior to the season, this was Ravens -8.5 at that time. This game was flexed into the primetime slot.
49ers (-5.5, 46) at Colts
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
I’ll be very interested to see how Philip Rivers does here, given that halftime of this Monday Night Football affair will be past his bedtime. The 44-year-old was 18-of-27 for 120 yards with a TD and a pick as the Colts dropped a tough one to the Seahawks 18-16 on a 56-yard game-winning kick from Jason Myers. Now there’s some film on what Shane Steichen wants to do with his veteran QB and that could certainly benefit the 49ers in this one, as they lay a decent road number. That said, the lookahead line was as high as 7.5 and mostly 6.5 here, so Rivers seemed to exceed some expectations.
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