Week 17 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

With the NFL regular season in the stretch run, several division races, playoff seeds and win-total bets are about to be decided. The most important division wager I have pending is on the Los Angeles Rams to win the NFC West at +390, and that result could be decided Saturday, when I have two Week 17 NFL best bets:

 

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Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

It’s too simplistic to say Joe Burrow is far superior to Bo Nix and that’s the reason to bet on the Bengals, but that’s a big reason for this play. In seven games since the beginning of November, Burrow has 24 touchdown passes. The Burrow-Ja’Marr Chase connection is as good as it gets in the league and helps Cincinnati overcome a defense that’s among the league’s worst. Denver’s defense has regressed in recent weeks, allowing 6.2 yards per play in a loss to the Chargers and surrendering 552 total yards in a win against the Browns and Jameis Winston, who passed for 497 yards. Nix often plays like a rookie and has thrown five picks in the Broncos’ past three games. The Bengals (7-8) have won three in a row and have a small chance to reach the playoffs, but even a small chance is some motivation.

Week 17 NFL Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -3

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)

An ugly start to the season, including a 41-10 loss at Arizona in Week 2, put the Rams at 1-4 and almost left for dead. Almost. Sean McVay worked his coaching magic and his injury-plagued team got healthier. The defense improved and the offense got hot behind the big three of quarterback Matthew Stafford, running back Kyren Williams and wideout Puka Nacua. The Rams are 8-2 in the past 10 and can clinch the division with a win over the Cardinals, who are out of playoff contention yet willing to play the spoiler role. The Kyler Murray-led Arizona offense scored 30 points in each of the past two games. The Rams scored 19 and 12 points in their past two games, so the offense has been inconsistent. This is McVay’s month — the Rams are 15-2 ATS in their past 17 December games, including 4-0 this month. I bet this at +7 on Wednesday and still like the Cardinals to keep this close in the fourth quarter.

Week 17 NFL Best Bet: Arizona Cardinals +6.5

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-3.5)

Washington is off of its signature win of the season, a 36-33 upset of the Eagles fueled by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels’ five touchdown passes. After a big win, beware of a letdown. This could be a flat spot for the Commanders, who still have several defensive flaws and allowed 211 rushing yards to Philadelphia. Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson has averaged 103 rushing yards in the past four games, and rookie quarterback Michael Penix should be sharper this week in his second start. The Falcons (8-7) have a lot to play for as they chase the NFC South title. The line has dipped to 3.5 at some books, but +4 is still available.

Week 17 NFL Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons +4

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-10)

Aaron Rodgers is a double-digit underdog for only the second time in his career, which spans 260 starts. In 2022 with Green Bay, Rodgers was getting 10.5 points in a 27-17 loss at Buffalo. Rodgers’ passing numbers have improved in the past three games, and he’s actually playing with something to prove because he wants to come back in 2025. In the past seven games since the beginning of November, the Bills are 6-1, with only one win by more than 10 points. I have not bet on the Jets since their 21-13 victory over the Texans in Week 9, so I have not been getting burned by this team and have no battle scars to scare me away from taking this shot.

Week 17 NFL Best Bet: Jets +10

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)

With quarterback Jalen Hurts ruled out, Philadelphia will turn to backup Kenny Pickett, and the drop-off is significant. The Eagles will lean even more on running back Saquon Barkley, who can expect 20-plus carries. Barkley has topped 100 rushing yards in five of the past six games and is a good bet to do it again against a Dallas defense compromised by key injuries. In a strange twist, the Cowboys are 5-2 on the road and suddenly playing loose and with more confidence while winning four of their past five. Dallas quarterback Cooper Rush is getting the job done, although his job gets tougher now without injured wideout CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys probably won’t win, but they can cover with some help from Brandon Aubrey, who’s a legit weapon as a long-range kicker.

Week 17 NFL Best Bet: Dallas Cowboys +7.5

Last week: 3-1-1 against the spread
Season: 36-39-5

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