Week 17 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:

Can’t believe I didn’t load up on the Packers on Monday night. I will be kicking myself for days on that one. I had the pleasure of going to the game at Lambeau Field, and for whatever reason, I just got apprehensive about the huge -14.5-point line. However, as I traveled to the game, I was trying to talk myself into reasons why the Saints would be able to compete…ugh. 

I have more regret this season than any in recent memory in terms of my betting. Oh well. That said, I was 4-4 ATS in Week 16 to move my season record to 72-68-2 ATS (51.4%). The Week 17 slate starts early with Wednesday Christmas games, so I figured I’d get to capping the games earlier than usual. After digging through the VSiN.com matchups pages and the latest loaded NFL Analytics Report, this is what I have in mind for NFL Week 17 best bets. Happy holidays to you and your families.

 

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Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Kansas City at Pittsburgh

It’s obvious that Pittsburgh has been a different team the last few weeks without WR George Pickens on the field. Even still, the Steelers have remained very competitive. The final score in Ravens game didn’t reflect how well head coach Mike Tomlin’s team played for most of the contest. That said, with Pickens set to return for Wednesday’s game against the Chiefs, I think you will see a much better offensive attack. 

As it is, this would seem to be a very good trend spot for the hosts: 1) Pittsburgh is 24-5 SU and 23-6 ATS coming off a game allowing 30+ points since 2013 2) Pittsburgh is 18-8 SU and 19-7 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013 3) Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin is on 30-21 SU and 35-14 ATS run as a single-digit underdog and 4) Pittsburgh’s Russell Wilson is 22-15 SU and 26-12 ATS vs. teams with elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2012. 

More on Wilson, dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 44-75 SU but 66-48-5 ATS (57.9%) when playing as underdogs of 3-points or more. For as much as the Chiefs continue to grind out games, I expect this one to be highly competitive, and I don’t see Kansas City winning by more than 3-points here.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: I’ll take Pittsburgh +3 in what should be a very tough environment

Thursday, December 26, 2024

Seattle at Chicago

One of the things I like to look for in bottom-of-the-barrel teams in the late season of each NFL year is which of them continue to play with heart, and which have “given up.” You can tell this by the eye test on what you see in the field, what players are saying in interviews, and by countless other means. To me, Chicago has turned on itself. The locker room is a mess; players are just hoping to get stats for contract purposes, and the losing continues. Here, the Bears are getting a somewhat respectful line against Seattle, and I’m not sure they deserve it. 

The Seahawks need this game badly after losing late to Minnesota on Sunday. Seattle is 35-24 ATS (59.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2015. The Bears were routed by Detroit on Sunday and are 21-35-1 ATS (37.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2019. They are also 26-42-1 ATS (38.2%) as an underdog since 2019. Of course, in recent December/January regular season games, road favorites 3 points or more are 143-123 ATS (53.8%) since 2014. 

Also, in NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, teams on losing streaks of at least three games outright and playing as underdogs or favorites of less than 3 points are just 44-103 SU and 60-88 ATS (40.5%). This afflicts Chicago. Finally, looking at the Thursday night aspect of this one, there has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 19-20 SU and 25-13-1 ATS (65.8%) record, and home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game have been a brutal bet over the last four seasons, going 27-32 SU and 22-36-1 ATS (37.9%).

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: There’s enough here for me to back Seattle -3.5 at Chicago on TNF

Saturday, December 28, 2024

LA Chargers at New England

I just mentioned that one of the things I like to look for in bottom-of-the-barrel teams in the late season of each NFL year is which of them continue to play with heart and which have “given up.” To me, New England is still playing hard for head coach Jerod Mayo, and they actually seem to be improving as the season wears on. There is actually hope on the horizon in Foxboro, with QB Drake Maye making great strides this season. Speaking of Maye, did you know that rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 19-21 SU and 25-13-2 ATS (65.8%) in their last 40 such tries?

The Chargers come off a huge win over Denver on a Thursday night in Week 16 and will have extra rest here. They will need it, as this game and travel scenario represent one of the longest and toughest West-to-East trips the league has to offer. And on an early Saturday morning game, too, for West Coast fans of LA. It’s no wonder the Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last eight against the Chargers and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 between these teams in New England. Recall as well that retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 98-70 SU but just 61-96-11 ATS, for 38.9%! Not to mention that 95% of the handle on this game was on LA as of Tuesday, a very public play.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: I’m going to trust New England +4 as a live early Saturday home dog

Denver at Cincinnati

I have correctly pegged the Bengals on best bets in each of their last five games, and it’s actually been a big part of me restoring my record to plus-.500. That said, I have backed them in each of the last three weeks, and they have won all three. However, this is where I get off the train, as for hot as they are now, the recent stretch has come against teams that weren’t playing well at the time. This week’s opponent, Denver, is playing pretty well and is a more complete team. I have said that the next time that head coach Zac Taylor’s team would match up with a competent team, particularly on defense, I would back that opponent. 

The Broncos are off a tough TNF loss at LA. However, Denver’s HC Sean Payton is 16-8 SU and 19-4 ATS in his last 24 games when coming off an outright road loss. That is a tremendous record and a testament to his ability to get his teams to have short memories. This NFL Late Regular Season System will also be in place because of that result: Since 2014, NFL teams coming off divisional losses and now playing on the road have gone 63-67 SU but 76-50 ATS (60.3%) in the follow-up game. 

Denver QB Bo Nix has enjoyed a tremendous season, and for this spot, rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 19-21 SU and 25-13-2 ATS (65.8%) in their L40 such tries. There is also the intriguing recent series trend, which finds road teams are on a 9-1 ATS surge in the DEN-CIN series. This looks like a strong spot for a live road dog.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: I’ll take Denver +3.5 in what should be a competitive and entertaining tilt

Arizona at LA Rams

I never really believed the Cardinals were ready to win a division or even make a playoff push in 2024. I think the pressure may have gotten to them recently, as losing four out of their last five games has eliminated them from contention. Now that they are out of it, I believe the pressure is off and they can play their best in a situation that has the chance to make things more difficult on the Rams. As it is, Arizona is 29-18 ATS (61.7%) as an underdog since 2021. 

Regarding the most recent loss at Carolina, that has this NFL Late Regular Season System in play:  Since 2010, NFL teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 62-33 SU and 59-35 ATS (62.8%) in the follow-up game. The Rams are off the win in New York this past Sunday, but truthfully, they didn’t look great in getting that victory, nor any of the three prior. That said, in NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, teams on winning streaks of at least three games but not good offensively (scoring <22 PPG) have been terrible wagers, going 21-32 SU and 16-37 ATS (30.2%). 

This is also a rematch game from earlier in the season, an outing won handily by the Cardinals 41-10 in Week 2. I have a very strong rematch betting system that shows how teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 82-26 SU and 67-41 ATS (62%) in the rematch. With over 80% of the handle and 75% of bets at DraftKings on LA, I believe bettors could be setting themselves up for a fall.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: I’ll take Arizona to cover the +6.5

Sunday, December 29, 2024

Las Vegas at New Orleans

For as bad as the Saints looked on Monday night, and believe me, they were atrocious, it was quite obvious that the game location, the weather, the line, the quality of the opponent and perhaps several other factors had them completely disinterested in playing. Truthfully, with the Raiders set up as 1.5-point favorites, I might be looking at one of the worst road favorites in recent memory. And 75% of the money is backing that team. In my experience of betting NFL football, sometimes things from one week can completely turn a week later. 

Look at this betting system regarding New Orleans’ 34-0 loss at Green Bay on Monday: Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce back teams in the next outing, going 36-23-2 ATS (61%) since 2012. That was of course, the first shutout of the season, so this is the first time we get to utilize this impressive angle. 

I mentioned just a bit ago that the Raiders fit the criteria of one of the worst road favorites I’ve seen lately. Look at these couple of NFL Late Regular Season Systems that detail the thought: 1) In NFL December/January regular season games, road favorites (or pick ’em) scoring fewer than 19 PPG are just 8-12 SU and 6-14 ATS (36.4%) in their last 20 tries and 2) In NFL December/January regular season games since 2020, road favorites allowing 24.0 PPG or more are just 10-18 ATS (35.7%). If that’s not enough, underdogs have won the last three ATS in the LVR-NO series.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: I’ll take New Orleans +1 as the home dog to Las Vegas

NY Jets at Buffalo

Is there reason for concern for the Bills after last week’s less-than-stellar effort against the Patriots? This following a pair of games in which they allowed 43 PPG? I’d say yes and no. Yes, that the defense was gorged in back-to-back weeks, no, in that the games against the Patriots are usually played differently for Buffalo in terms of pace and conservativism. Those poor defensive efforts also came after two emotionally draining wins over the two Super Bowl combatants last year. 

I think this week we will see the true Bills again, and I would count the Jets as a team ripe for the picking and ready to get the 2024 season over with. As it is, the Jets are 19-33 ATS (36.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016. These teams played a tight 23-20 contest last time out in New York, but that was when the Jets were still engaged mentally. 

That result puts two nice rematch trends in place for Sunday: 1) NY Jets are on a 5-21 SU and 8-17-1 ATS rematch skid, and 2) Buffalo is one of the best home rematch teams lately, going 17-5 SU and 12-10 ATS in their last 22 home rematches, scoring 29.7 PPG. Let’s be honest: if Buffalo comes anywhere close to 30, can the Jets stay in the game? 

Finally, regarding these teams’ current won-lost records, a strong NFL Late Regular Season System: In NFL December/January regular season games since 2012, home teams with at least four more wins than their opponent are 144-32 SU and 99-75 ATS (56.9%), including 118-17 SU and 78-56 ATS when favored by 6 points or more.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out to be easy for Buffalo (-10.5)

Carolina at Tampa Bay

Even when down big on Sunday night, the Buccaneers showed grit and heart in getting back into the game with Dallas. That is how this team has become defined with QB Baker Mayfield at the helm. They are both explosive and gritty, a very good combination. Carolina has also shown some grit, particularly as an underdog, and would love to make things tough on Tampa in this one. However, Carolina is on 1-14 SU and 3-12 ATS slide vs. elite teams with PPG differentials >=+4.5, and QB Bryce Young is 5-20 SU and 11-13 ATS in his last 24 starts as an underdog. 

Plus, just like the game I mentioned above (BUF-NYJ), one of my NFL Late Regular Season Systems states that in NFL December/January regular season games since 2012, home teams with at least four more wins than their opponent are 144-32 SU and 99-75 ATS (56.9%), including 118-17 SU and 78-56 ATS when favored by 6-points or more. Also, In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, road teams scoring fewer than 19 PPG and playing as dogs of +13 points or fewer are just 32-122 SU and 55-96 ATS (36.4%). 

That is not all in terms of late-season systems, as this one is loaded with them, including: Since 2010, NFL teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 62-33 SU and 59-35 ATS (62.8%) in the follow-up game. As is usually the case, this late-season divisional contest is also a rematch from earlier, a tight 26-23 TB win in Carolina. However, consider that Carolina is 14-21 SU and 12-23 ATS in rematches since 2014 and Tampa Bay is on 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS surge hosting Carolina, scoring 29.4 PPG in the process. I expect the Bucs to quickly right the ship here.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: I’ll go Tampa Bay -8 on Sunday vs. Carolina

Miami at Cleveland

How tough of a travel environment is it for a team like Miami to go to Cleveland for a late December game with only minimal playoff chances on the line? I say minimally because the Dolphins need to win out with two road games left and get some help along the way. You need to consider that the Dolphins are just 2-5 on the road this season and have scored 17 points or fewer five times in that stretch, including 17 exactly in a colder evening game at Green Bay last month. 

I have to assume the weather isn’t going to cooperate with Miami’s desires, making the task of getting a key win all the tougher. As it is, Cleveland is on a 4-1 ATS run when hosting the Dolphins. Now, naturally, there are concerns with the Browns, as they didn’t play all that well with QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson at the helm last week in Cincinnati, but that was in a tougher environment, and a couple of costly turnovers made the final score (24-6) look a lot worse on Cleveland’s actual competitiveness. Of course, the primary reason I would opt for the Browns here is that the betting public typically overreacts to must-win playoff scenarios for teams that may or may not be worthy. As of Tuesday, there was lopsided action backing Miami (86% handle, 75% bets) at DraftKings, and we all know that since the start of the 2022 season when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 108-123 ATS (46.7%). I’ll fade the public on this one.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Give me Cleveland +6.5 as a live dawg at the Dawg Pound

Atlanta at Washington

Does something feel off about this Sunday night football line? Washington is 10-5 and coming off its biggest win of the season, while Atlanta is 8-7 and has a rookie QB making his second start of the season, yet the line is only -4. I don’t understand it, yet I feel willing to back the Falcons in what seems to be shaping up as a down-to-the-wire entertaining contest between a pair of exciting rookie quarterbacks and retread head coaches. 

That last tidbit could prove important as the trends indicate this could be a tough spot to cover for Washington and head coach Dan Quinn, as re-tread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites since 2014. They’ve gone 98-70 SU but just 61-96-11 ATS, for 38.9%! They are also 90-120-1 ATS at home. His team also comes off an upset of Philadelphia in which they managed to overcome five turnovers. Turnovers are a key handicapping statistic, as NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 17-15 SU but 9-22-1 ATS (29%) when favored in the next contest since 2012. The fact that this game is on Sunday Night Football is also not lost on me, as home favorites of less than a TD on SNF show a record of 22-13 SU and 15-20 ATS (42.9%) in their last 35 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior. 

Strangely, the league’s highest-scoring teams have not fared well on SNF of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 12-9 SU but 4-17 ATS (19%) in their last 21 tries against teams not scoring that much. As it is, Washington is 11-22 and 10-22-1 ATS in primetime games since 2013 and road teams are on 9-2 ATS surge in the last 11 of the ATL-WAS series. I expect the Falcons to play like their playoff hopes depend on it because they do, and I prefer underdogs with that mentality.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: I’ll take Atlanta +4 in Washington

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