NFL First Touchdown
It will be very interesting this week and next week to see what kinds of surprises we get in the First Touchdown Scorer market. The bad teams may be evaluating guys further down the depth chart and/or shutting down players that have been dealing with nagging ailments. The good teams may be sitting guys or limiting snaps with an eye towards the playoffs. It might not be a bad time of the year to give some long shots a look.
We start with three games on Christmas and then have two on Saturday before even getting to Sunday and Monday. The Saturday games could impact rosters for Sunday’s action, so you may want to hold back your first touchdown scorer picks until we get a little more clarity on some of Sunday’s action. I didn’t have that luxury because I wanted to get this article out before the Christmas slate, but it’s something for you to think about.
Let’s look at the first touchdown scorers by position for this season before looking at the NFL Week 17 schedule.
QB: 1 (30)
RB: 7 (157)
WR: 15 (170)
TE: 5 (70)
D/ST: 2 (22)
No TD: 2 (30)
OL: 0 (1)* – likely a refund because offensive linemen aren’t listed
I had some extra time with no CBB and being ahead on bowl games that I got to do some housekeeping on the sheet for this week. No major changes, just double checking numbers and touchdowns by position. Everything is up to date through 240 games and 480 individual team games.
The Chiefs and Jets joined the “No TD” group with their Week 16 performances. Otherwise, it was a mostly standard week, except for a lot more wide receivers than running backs finding paydirt first.
You can always access the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker and see what has happened so far this season and make some inferences and subsequently wagers that way.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 13/15 (86.7%) |
| Jaguars | 12/15 (80%) |
| Eagles | 10/15 (66.7%) |
| Lions | 10/15 (66.7%) |
| Packers | 10/15 (66.7%) |
| Seahawks | 10/15 (66.7%) |
| 49ers | 9/15 (60%) |
| Bears | 9/15 (60%) |
| Broncos | 9/15 (60%) |
| Giants | 9/15 (60%) |
| Rams | 9/15 (60%) |
| Steelers | 9/15 (60%) |
| Bills | 8/15 (53.3%) |
| Browns | 8/15 (53.3%) |
| Bucs | 8/15 (53.3%) |
| Chargers | 8/15 (53.3%) |
| Dolphins | 8/15 (53.3%) |
| Texans | 8/15 (53.3%) |
| Cowboys | 7/15 (46.7%) |
| Panthers | 7/15 (46.7%) |
| Ravens | 7/15 (46.7%) |
| Bengals | 6/15 (40%) |
| Cardinals | 6/15 (40%) |
| Chiefs | 6/15 (40%) |
| Commanders | 5/15 (33.3%) |
| Falcons | 5/15 (33.3%) |
| Patriots | 5/15 (33.3%) |
| Raiders | 5/15 (33.3%) |
| Titans | 4/15 (26.7%) |
| Vikings | 4/15 (26.7%) |
| Jets | 3/15 (20%) |
| Saints | 3/15 (20%) |
The Colts actually scored the first TD again and have done so twice in two Philip Rivers starts. He’s kept up the incredible standard set by Daniel Jones before he was lost for the season. The Saints also scored the first TD for the second time in their last three games, quite an accomplishment given how the season has gone thus far.
I’ll be keeping this up through the playoffs, so it’ll be fascinating to see what kinds of matchups we get in this particular metric.
In terms of some recent streaks and miscellaneous notes:
- The Falcons are bad in this department anyway, but they scored the first TD in Kirk Cousins’ first start (W12), but have not in his last four and haven’t scored on their first possession since W6
- The Bills have not scored the first TD in four straight games after starting 8/11 in this department
- The Bears used a first-round pick on Colston Loveland and they are one of just four teams (Broncos, Bucs, Texans) without a first team TD from a TE
- The Browns haven’t had a non-TE first TD since Week 12 (TE, TE, No TD, TE)
- The Packers have been a roller coaster with the first TD, scoring it in five straight and six of seven to open the season; they’ve done it in 4/5 after going 0/3 in Weeks 9-11
- The Texans have scored the first TD in three straight games
- The Jaguars ran their streak up to seven straight last week
- The Raiders have not scored the first TD in six straight games
- After starting 9/12, the Rams have not scored first in three straight games
- Hunter Henry had the first TD for the Patriots last week; he is the only player with four first team TDs and none of them have been the game’s first TD
I’m also tracking players to score at least three first team TDs for their teams. Here it is entering Week 17:
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) Top Scorers by Team
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 8 | 3 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 6 | 4 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 6 | 4 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 6 | 3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 5 | 4 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 5 | 3 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 5 | 3 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 5 | 2 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 5 | 2 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 5 | 2 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 5 | 1 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 4 | 3 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) | 4 | 3 |
| Kenneth Gainwell (PIT) | 4 | 3 |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE) | 4 | 3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 4 | 3 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 4 | 3 |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 4 | 2 |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 4 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 4 | 1 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) | 4 | 1 |
| Chris Olave (NO) | 4 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 4 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 4 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs (GB) | 3 | 3 |
| Rico Dowdle (CAR) | 3 | 3 |
| Travis Etienne (JAX) | 3 | 3 |
| Tyler Warren (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA) | 3 | 2 |
| Jaxson Dart (NYG) | 3 | 2 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| Dallas Goedert (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Ashton Jeanty (LV) | 3 | 2 |
| Jauan Jennings (SF) | 3 | 2 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 3 | 2 |
| Woody Marks (HOU) | 3 | 2 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 3 | 2 |
| Josh Oliver (MIN) | 3 | 2 |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 3 | 2 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 3 | 2 |
| D’Andre Swift (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Parker Washington (JAX) | 3 | 2 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) | 3 | 1 |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB) | 3 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 3 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 3 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 3 | 1 |
| Trey McBride (ARI) | 3 | 1 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 3 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 3 | 0 |
| Bam Knight (ARI) | 3 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
| Raiders No Touchdown | 4 | 0 |
| Jets No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
| Titans No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
| Vikings No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
This week’s additions: Olave (scored 4th TD, but I somehow missed him), Doubs, Washington, Croskey-Merritt. D. Henry went from 7 to 8. Cook, Johnston, Sutton went from 4 to 5. Fannin, McMillan, Gainwell, Robinson, H. Henry, Olave went from 3 to 4.
With that, let’s get to the Week 17 action and look at some mismatches from 2025 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Week 17 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025
Cowboys (46.7%) at Commanders (33.3%) – Thursday, 1 p.m. ET
Lions (66.7%) at Vikings (26.7%) – 4:30 p.m. ET
Broncos (60%) at Chiefs (40%) – 8:15 p.m. ET
Texans (53.3%) at Chargers (53.3%) – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Ravens (46.7%) at Packers (66.7%) – 8 p.m. ET
Cardinals (40%) at Bengals (40%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Steelers (60%) at Browns (53.3%)
Saints (20%) at Titans (26.7%)
Jaguars (80%) at Colts (86.7%)
Buccaneers (53.3%) at Dolphins (53.3%)
Patriots (33.3%) at Jets (20%)
Seahawks (66.7%) at Panthers (46.7%)
Giants (60%) at Raiders (33.3%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Eagles (66.7%) at Bills (53.3%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Bears (60%) at 49ers (60%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Rams (60%) at Falcons (33.3%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 17 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs +340, Amon-Ra St. Brown +650
The David Montgomery soap opera took another turn this week when he missed Tuesday’s practice with an illness. Montgomery’s taken to social media to show his displeasure with his workload and snap count relative to Gibbs, who is playing a ton in the absence of TE Sam LaPorta and with Detroit’s interior offensive line issues. He’s a much bigger threat outside the tackles and in the passing game.
Against Minnesota’s blitz-happy defense, I don’t think Montgomery matches up well again. If he gets a short yardage carry and hawks a Gibbs TD, so be it.
Regarding St. Brown, nothing exciting about this pick, but he’s second to Davante Adams in red zone targets this season with 31, while Isaac TeSlaa has 10 and Jameson Williams only has eight, including just three catches. St. Brown’s 19 red zone receptions are the same number that all other WR/TE have for the Lions this season.
If you do want a long shot, TE Anthony Firkser is 35/1. While Shane Zylstra had more snaps last week, Firkser caught his lone red zone target while Zylstra did not.
Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams +600, Terrance Ferguson +1500
Konata Mumpfield is another option here at 17/1, but it seems like Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford are trusting the rookie Ferguson more and more as the season has gone along. While he’s still trailing Colby Parkinson in snap share at the TE position, we’ve seen Ferguson go from a range of 26.8% to 34.6% from Weeks 9-13 up to 64.3%, 77.8%, and 76.1% over the last three weeks. He hadn’t played more than 34 snaps in a game until Week 14 and he’s now played 45, 56, and 70.
Parkinson’s price is much shorter than Ferguson’s for two guys that I feel like are on fairly equal ground right now. Parkinson’s higher target share may start to shift towards Ferguson as the Rams look to see what they have in him.
Williams is just an obvious choice here. This is a higher price than we normally see, but with Puka Nacua and Bijan Robinson, we get a little bump in the number. He’s scored the first TD for the Rams in 19 of their last 34 games.
Will add another team before Sunday’s games.
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Week 17 content in our Betting Hub.
