Week 17 NFL Odds
Only two weeks remain in the NFL regular season and Week 17 sure does showcase just how late into the game we are. There are playoff implications, but there are also teams that don’t really have anything except for pride or maybe playing spoiler to think about. And we also have teams that have already secured a spot in the postseason that are prioritizing staying healthy over moving around from a seeding standpoint. It can be an arduous task handicapping late regular season games for those and other reasons.
Of course, added to the equation is that we have three games on Christmas, where some players would much rather be home with their families for the holiday instead of going to work. We also have some weather considerations since it is late in the month of December. So many factors that, frankly, don’t really have any bearing on the stats, metrics, or the values of these teams. In other words, stop, take a second, and consider the entire picture with every Week 17 game.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 17 NFL Odds Report:
Odds as of Sunday, December 21 at 9:45 p.m. PT
Cowboys (-5.5, 46) at Commanders
Thursday, 1 p.m. ET
Two teams that would much rather be at home enjoying the company of friends and family are the Cowboys and Commanders. Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. While some individual incentives and maybe future contract implications are in play, there isn’t a whole lot at stake this week. That being said, injuries can still have a major impact on the number and it looks likely that Washington is down to journeyman QB Josh Johnson to start this game. As a result, we’ve seen the Cowboys go from -3 or -3.5 to -5.5 in this one. I’d actually say that the gap between Marcus Mariota and Johnson is bigger than just a couple of points, but you do have to worry about how engaged Dallas is for this unimportant game.
Lions (-6, 44.5) at Vikings
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Unlike the first game, this one means something as the Lions suffered a brutal setback in Week 16 against the Steelers. Detroit had not won or lost consecutive games since Weeks 4 and 5, but now they’ve dropped two in a row and only sit at 8-7 for the season. The Vikings are likely to be without JJ McCarthy again, as he suffered a hand injury. With the short week, it seems like a long shot that he’ll be able to play. That would push Max Brosmer back into a starting role and that’s why we’ve seen a move from -3.5 to -4 or so in this one. It’s not a guarantee that McCarthy is out, but with a Thursday game, the line adjusted accordingly.
Broncos (-13, 37.5) at Chiefs
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Speaking of line adjusting accordingly, the Chiefs lost to the Titans and lost Gardner Minshew in the process, as the KC backup followed in the footsteps of the KC starter and tore his ACL. Since we’re so late in the season and the Chiefs are only playing for draft position, we’ll see Chris Oladokun get the start. Oladokun goes from one of the cushiest third-string QB jobs in the NFL to facing one of the league’s top defenses with a team around him that has already been eliminated from the postseason. With the Broncos still seeking the division title and AFC seeding, this line jumped about a touchdown or more from -5.5 to as high as -13.
Texans at Chargers (-1.5, 40)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
The first of two games slated for Saturday is far more interesting than the nightcap, as the Texans and Chargers square off at SoFi Stadium. The Texans are doing their best to try to keep pace with the Jaguars and the Chargers are looking to do the same with the Broncos. Given that Denver is a massive favorite on Thursday night and likely to beat the Chiefs, that should give the Chargers a bit of extra juice given that winning the AFC West is preferable to being a wild card. LA won the first regular season meeting and the two teams play in Week 18. But, the Texans are no easy task and, frankly, this line tells us that Houston would be favored on a neutral.
Ravens at Packers (NL)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
While we await the status of Jordan Love, who found himself in concussion protocol after Green Bay’s shocking collapse against Chicago, we don’t really have a line on this game. The Ravens haven’t technically been eliminated from postseason contention, but they sure are close.
Cardinals at Bengals (-6.5, 53.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Two teams simply looking to avoid major injuries come together here and most of the market was sitting -7 at time of writing on Cincinnati, who welcomes Arizona for an early kickoff in what could be a cold climate. Truth be told, this line was around 5.5 or 6 and I really believe we get to 7 or even 7.5 here. Joe Burrow has been questioned a lot since coming back from injury and Arizona really has nothing at stake and it’s in their best interest to lose. Cincinnati is reportedly bringing Zac Taylor back and I’m not sure what impact that has on the team good or bad, but this is a good situational spot late in the year.
Seahawks (-7, 42.5) at Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
We all love the Seahawks, and deservedly so, but this is not an ideal situation here with cross-country travel late in the year to take on a Carolina team that now controls its own destiny in the NFC South. This feels landmine-esque if we’re being honest and that’s probably why we’ve seen the 7.5s on this game look more like 7s now that the market has reopened. Seattle is a great team and the win over the Rams was both impressive and fortunate, but this sure does feel like a really tricky game, extra rest or not.
Steelers (-4.5, 34.5) at Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
The Browns lost more than a football game on Sunday, as they also lost Quinshon Judkins to a very ugly leg injury. This is a team that has been trying to cobble together an offensive line week in and week out and you wonder how many more times this team can dig deep and overcome so much. They covered with relative ease against the Bills in spite of everything and a game against the rival Steelers should keep the competitive juices flowing. That said, Pittsburgh has a hell of a lot more to play for and it makes sense that some shops moved out to as high as -5.5 here.
Saints (-2.5, 38) at Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Tennessee’s win over Kansas City didn’t seem to move the needle much, as the Saints easily handled the Jets and grew slightly as a favorite in this one. We’re even seeing some shops dealing -3 on this game when most were -2 or -2.5 heading into Week 16. The Tyler Shough Offensive Rookie of the Year train is gathering steam and it’s hard to argue with what Kellen Moore’s team has done, winning three straight here late in the season. Tennessee’s win was nice, but whatever wind the Chiefs had in their sails went away with Minshew’s injury and that’s why we’ve seen what we’ve seen with this line.
Buccaneers (-4.5, 46.5) at Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
I have to be honest…I really think this line should have been adjusted. The Dolphins and Quinn Ewers didn’t look good, but neither did Baker Mayfield for another week and now his Tampa Bay squad has to hope for some help in the NFC South standings. Say what you will about the Dolphins and Ewers, but they really are still playing hard despite not having a whole lot of compelling reasons to do so. We get some of this line inflation late in the year with teams that are in must-win situations – quote, unquote – but that doesn’t mean that they deserve it. To me, Tampa Bay doesn’t and we’ll see if the line follows suit. That said, some shops including DraftKings and BetMGM, were as high as 5.5 on Sunday night.
Patriots (-12.5, 42.5) at Jets
Sunday, 1 pm. ET
The entire market wasn’t open as of Sunday night on this one, but the Patriots still want to win the AFC East and not just settle for making the postseason. The Jets just want the season to be over, which has been a way too common theme for that organization as of late. This is a hefty road number, but it is deserved in so many ways. With Buffalo playing a Philly team in the 4 p.m. window that has already locked up a playoff spot, Mike Vrabel can dangle a pretty attractive carrot in front of his team and it’s hard to see this line coming back down, especially since it was -9 or -9.5 on the lookahead numbers and now sits where it does.
Giants (-1, 42) at Raiders
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
What a dumpster fire of a game this is, as the Raiders and Giants come together in a game that means a lot for the draft order and really not much else. Both teams have lost nine in a row and, barring a miraculous tie, somebody will end that streak in Sin City this week. It is just so hard to look at a game like this and have any sort of strong opinion or concrete position because we’re talking about two of the worst teams in the NFL. It is fair to wonder if the Giants will treat this as a business trip or attempt to take advantage of everything Las Vegas has to offer prior to a game that means absolutely, positively nothing.
Eagles at Bills (-2.5, 45)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Bills survived against the hapless Browns and that would normally cause a pretty big adjustment in their line for the next game, but that wasn’t the case because of who they are playing. The Eagles locked up the NFC East with their win over the Commanders and do have the chance to move up from a seeding standpoint, but the juice and the squeeze may not be on the same level. With the NFC West champ likely the No. 1 and the Bears with an inside track to the No. 2, the Eagles are better off looking to stay healthy and deal with wherever they land. The Bills, meanwhile, still have to cement their postseason future, even if they likely have no shot at the division by the time this game kicks off.
Rams (-8, 50) at Falcons
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
With the 49ers in action on MNF in Week 16 and then SNF in Week 17, we skip over them to look at Rams vs. Falcons, which doesn’t look like much of a game at all. Obviously the Rams will know what the Seahawks and 49ers have accomplished by the time Monday night rolls around and that could have some measure of impact on this line. But, the Rams are well-rested after playing on Thursday night last week and the Falcons are playing for nothing but pride. They showed some in beating the Cardinals on the road this past week, but this Rams team is dramatically better and the line shows it.
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