Week 18 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

In the football handicapping business, it’s important for credibility purposes to document the good, the bad and the ugly — and I have experienced plenty of all three during this NFL season.

My season win totals, which were all listed last summer on VSiN Pro and Twitter, will finish 7-0. These bets were better than good because the results were decided before Sunday of Week 17: Bears Under 9 (-110), Broncos Over 5.5 (-130), Chargers Over 8.5 (-145), Cowboys Under 10.5 (-180), 49ers Under 11.5 (-130), Patriots Under 5 (-130) and Rams Over 8.5 (-140).

 

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My bets to win divisions were a mix of good (Eagles +135, Rams +390) and bad (Bengals +165, Jets +210 and Chargers +350), but did turn a profit thanks to the Rams winning the NFC West at almost 4-1 odds.

As for my five plays each week in this column, the results have been disappointing (38-42-5 ATS), mostly because I’m a ‘dog player, and this has been an ugly season for underdogs. I’m stubborn, of course, so four more ‘dogs make my list of best bets for NFL Week 18:

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

A three-game losing streak has exposed the Steelers, who apparently have problems in the locker room that may or may not involve quarterback Russell Wilson. In the teams’ first meeting in Cincinnati on Dec. 1, Wilson passed for 414 yards and three touchdowns in a 44-38 win. Wilson has regressed, however, and the Pittsburgh defense has declined. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow and the Bengals are going in the right direction with a four-game win streak. In eight games since the beginning of November, Burrow has 27 touchdown passes. As great as he is, Burrow is fortunate to have a pair of No. 1 receivers in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is 21-7-3 ATS as a home underdog, so I’m leaning his direction, but I’ll go with Pittsburgh +8.5 on a teaser as the preferred way to play this.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Steelers +2.5

Buffalo Bills (-3) at New England Patriots

It’s not easy to find compelling reasons to bet on the Bills, who are set as the AFC’s No. 2 seed. Josh Allen will play a series or two to extend his consecutive starts streak to 105 games, but Mitchell Trubisky will be Buffalo’s quarterback most of the way. I can’t believe the Patriots will be foolish enough to win this game and risk losing the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, which is incredibly valuable, although coach Jerod Mayo insists he wants to win and plans to start rookie quarterback Drake Maye. The bottom line is it would be a big mistake for New England to win this game, and the line has moved from 2.5 to 3 for that reason. I’ll play the moneyline instead of laying the field goal.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Bills (moneyline -160)

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-10.5)

Kansas City has the top seed in the AFC secured and will sit several starters, including Patrick Mahomes, who will be replaced by backup quarterback Carson Wentz. Denver needs the win to earn a playoff spot, so the Chiefs’ 13-game streak of being the favorite in this rivalry is ending. Wentz, who has attempted two passes all season, will be playing to win, and coach Andy Reid is not putting a team on the field that will roll over. The last four times Reid rested his starting quarterback in the final game, he won twice and lost one of the games in overtime. Broncos coach Sean Payton will get his playoff berth, but covering this inflated number is a lot to ask.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Chiefs +10.5

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Los Angeles Rams

When the Rams started the season 1-4, it seemed highly unlikely they could rally to win the division and reach 10 wins, but those accomplishments were locked up last week. A win in the finale would clinch the NFC’s No. 3 seed and an easier playoff path for the Rams, so it’s surprising that coach Sean McVay is resting quarterback Matthew Stafford and some other starters. McVay must believe it’s more important to give Stafford the week off, and McVay also wants to give Jimmy Garoppolo his first game action of the season. Garoppolo is one of the league’s top backups, so this should not be a case of the Rams surrendering. Seattle coach Mike Macdonald wants to finish his first season with 10 wins, and quarterback Geno Smith has incentives for big bonus money, but is that enough motivation to warrant this inflated number? I think not, but this is a classic Week 18 guessing game, and maybe the Seahawks will be the only team that shows up. A few books have moved the line to 7.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Rams +7

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3)

The stakes are high in the regular-season finale between these 14-2 teams, so the atmosphere in Detroit will be electric. With the NFC North on the line, the winner gets the conference’s No. 1 seed and the loser falls all the way to No. 5. The Lions took the first meeting 31-29 in Week 7, when Jared Goff completed 22 of 25 passes for 280 yards and two touchdowns. Goff outplayed Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold the first time around, but the rematch could be a different story if Detroit’s injury-riddled defense doesn’t get its disturbing act together. The Lions allowed 475 total yards, including 377 passing yards to Brock Purdy, in a 40-34 win at San Francisco on Monday. Darnold and wideout Justin Jefferson should put up big numbers, but Darnold needs to avoid the costly interceptions that doomed Purdy and the 49ers. I can’t blame anyone who’s backing the Lions with their home-field advantage, but I’m taking the superior defense and the points.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Vikings +3

For more NFL Week 18 best bets, visit the NFL Week 18 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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