NFL First Touchdown
There are so many news items flying around here in Week 18, as we have player incentives, playoff scenarios, whispers of tanking, injuries, and so much more. All betting markets are impacted by these things. That includes the First Touchdown Scorer market, as we’re going to see some depressed prices on players with those incentives, as QBs will try to get their guys paid early on and not drag it out.
That said, it could also be a weird week, as coaches may opt to look at some of their younger guys in the red zone and get a little more film on them before the offseason gets underway, especially if key free agents at the skill positions are likely to move on. We may get some really short prices and some long shots. As always, the goal here is to try and isolate the teams that will score first and hope to nail the right player at that point.
Let’s look at the first touchdown scorers by position for this season before looking at the NFL Week 18 schedule.
QB: 4 (34)
RB: 10 (167)
WR: 8 (178)
TE: 7 (77)
D/ST: 2 (24)
No TD: 1 (31)
OL: 0 (1)* – likely a refund because offensive linemen aren’t listed
Obviously this week wraps up the regular season, but I will keep this going through the postseason, including Super Bowl 60. Hopefully these breakdowns have been valuable for you on a weekly basis. There are always a lot of learnings from tracking things and I’ll touch on some of those next week when we have the full 18 weeks.
The Steelers were the No TD team, but there are some other really interesting notes that I’ll mention shortly.
You can always access the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker and see what has happened so far this season and make some inferences and subsequently wagers that way.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 14/16 (87.5%) |
| Jaguars | 12/16 (75%) |
| Eagles | 11/16 (68.8%) |
| Seahawks | 11/16 (68.8%) |
| Bears | 10/16 (62.5%) |
| Giants | 10/16 (62.5%) |
| Lions | 10/16 (62.5%) |
| Packers | 10/16 (62.5%) |
| 49ers | 9/16 (56.3%) |
| Broncos | 9/16 (56.3%) |
| Browns | 9/16 (56.3%) |
| Bucs | 9/16 (56.3%) |
| Rams | 9/16 (56.3%) |
| Steelers | 9/16 (56.3%) |
| Texans | 9/16 (56.3%) |
| Bills | 8/16 (50%) |
| Chargers | 8/16 (50%) |
| Cowboys | 8/16 (50%) |
| Dolphins | 8/16 (50%) |
| Ravens | 8/16 (50%) |
| Bengals | 7/16 (43.8%) |
| Chiefs | 7/16 (43.8%) |
| Panthers | 7/16 (43.8%) |
| Cardinals | 6/16 (37.5%) |
| Falcons | 6/16 (37.5%) |
| Patriots | 6/16 (37.5%) |
| Commanders | 5/16 (31.3%) |
| Raiders | 5/16 (31.3%) |
| Titans | 5/16 (31.3%) |
| Vikings | 5/16 (31.3%) |
| Jets | 3/16 (18.8%) |
| Saints | 3/16 (18.8%) |
One takeaway here is that scoring first really does help your chances of winning games. There are always going to be outliers, but only one team under 50% has secured a playoff spot thus far. The Panthers/Ravens could become the second/third teams. It didn’t help the Colts or Giants to be so adept at scoring first, but a lot of good teams are high on this list.
In terms of some recent streaks and miscellaneous notes:
- Michael Wilson has three of the last four first touchdowns for the Cardinals and two in a row; the other is Trey McBride
- The Ravens have scored first in three straight games and four of their last five; Derrick Henry has scored their first TD in five of the last seven games
- The Bills have gone five straight games not scoring the first TD; they were 8/11 prior to that
- Since their Week 9 bye, the Browns have had their first TD scored by a TE in five of the seven games where they’ve scored one
- The Cowboys have scored first AND on their first possession in three straight games
- The Texans have scored first in four straight games
- The Jaguars had their streak of scoring first stopped at seven straight games
- The Raiders have not scored the first TD since Week 10
- The Rams have not scored the first TD since Week 13
- The Jets have only scored the first TD in Weeks 11-13; otherwise, they are 0/13
- Zach Charbonnet has scored back-to-back first TD for the Seahawks, who have scored first in 7/9 games since the bye
- While the Buccaneers continue to struggle, they have scored the first TD in three straight games and have scored on their first possession in three of the last four
- Three straight first team TDs for the Titans have been by TE (Helm, Okonkwo x 2) – nobody for Tennessee has more than two first team TDs
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt has scored the first TD in three straight games for the Commanders
I’m also tracking players to score at least three first team TDs for their teams. Here it is entering Week 18:
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) Top Scorers by Team
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 9 | 4 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 6 | 4 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 6 | 4 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 6 | 3 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) | 5 | 4 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 5 | 4 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 5 | 4 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 5 | 3 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 5 | 3 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 5 | 2 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 5 | 2 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 5 | 2 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 5 | 2 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 5 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA) | 4 | 3 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 4 | 3 |
| Kenneth Gainwell (PIT) | 4 | 3 |
| Dallas Goedert (PHI) | 4 | 3 |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE) | 4 | 3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 4 | 3 |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 4 | 2 |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 4 | 1 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 4 | 1 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) | 4 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 4 | 1 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) | 4 | 1 |
| Chris Olave (NO) | 4 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 4 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs (GB) | 3 | 3 |
| Rico Dowdle (CAR) | 3 | 3 |
| Travis Etienne (JAX) | 3 | 3 |
| Tyler Warren (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Jaxson Dart (NYG) | 3 | 2 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| Ashton Jeanty (LV) | 3 | 2 |
| Jauan Jennings (SF) | 3 | 2 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 3 | 2 |
| Woody Marks (HOU) | 3 | 2 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 3 | 2 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 3 | 2 |
| Josh Oliver (MIN) | 3 | 2 |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 3 | 2 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 3 | 2 |
| D’Andre Swift (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Parker Washington (JAX) | 3 | 2 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Michael Wilson (ARI) | 3 | 2 |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB) | 3 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 3 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 3 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 3 | 1 |
| Trey McBride (ARI) | 3 | 1 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Isaac TeSlaa (DET) | 3 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 3 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 3 | 0 |
| Bam Knight (ARI) | 3 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
| Raiders No Touchdown | 4 | 0 |
| Jets No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
| Titans No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
| Vikings No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
This week’s additions: Nix, Wilson, TeSlaa, Watson. Henry went from 8 to 9. B. Robinson, Fannin, Taylor went from 4 to 5. Charbonnet, Croskey-Merritt, Goedert, Chase went from 3 to 4.
With that, let’s get to the Week 18 action and look at some mismatches from 2025 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Week 18 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025
Panthers (43.8%) at Buccaneers (56.3%) – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Seahawks (68.8%) at 49ers (56.3%) – Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
Saints (18.8%) at Falcons (37.5%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Browns (56.3%) at Bengals (43.8%)
Packers (62.5%) at Vikings (31.3%)
Cowboys (50%) at Giants (62.5%)
Titans (31.3%) at Jaguars (75%)
Colts (87.5%) at Texans (56.3%)
Jets (18.8%) at Bills (50%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Lions (62.5%) at Bears (62.5%)
Chargers (50%) at Broncos (56.3%)
Chiefs (43.8%) at Raiders (31.3%)
Cardinals (37.5%) at Rams (56.3%)
Dolphins (50%) at Patriots (37.5%)
Commanders (31.3%) at Eagles (68.8%)
Ravens (50%) at Steelers (56.3%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 18 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucky Irving +800, Chris Godwin +1300
Truthfully, I’m torn between Sean Tucker (+1100) and Irving here, with Tucker’s price a bit better. The Panthers have allowed 16 TD to RB this season, compared to just 11 TD for WR. It wasn’t a good offensive showing for the Bucs in the last game against the Panthers, but they scored on their opening possession and Irving had five carries compared to one for Tucker.
In fact, the Bucs scored their only two TD on their first possession of each half, so the scripted drive and the “adjustments” drive both worked out. For those reasons, I’ll give them a shot here, even though they don’t have an overwhelming advantage in the tracked results.
As far as Godwin goes, he has five red zone targets over the last five weeks. Mike Evans has four. Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, and Emeka Egbuka have one each. With Godwin’s price a few dollars better than Evans (+850), I think he’s the better play.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Travis Etienne Jr. +330, Parker Washington +1100
A short price on Etienne, but you have to think that the goal for Liam Coen is to start fast and try to put this game away as early as possible in hopes of maybe being able to rest some guys in the second half with a big lead. The Jaguars have done pretty well in this department, especially after the bye, but pinpointing who will score first has been brutal. All 16 of their first TDs have come on offense and Etienne and Washington are the only guys with three of them.
I will say that Tennessee’s defense has really faded late. They’ve allowed 27 second half TDs and 20 first half TD, including eight in the first quarter. The Jags have scored 26 first half touchdowns and 17 of them have been passing. So, Washington, who is tied with Brian Thomas in targets, looks like a good option here.
It’s also worth noting that Etienne, along with seven rushing scores, leads all pass-catchers with six receiving TDs.
With some remaining uncertainty as to who is playing, DraftKings had a smaller number of games posted at time of publish. Will try to add another team on Friday if more odds are available.
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Week 18 content in our Betting Hub.
