Week 18 NFL Odds
Three division-deciding games highlight the Week 18 NFL slate. We also have some games that mean a whole lot of nothing, where the race to the bottom could create some compelling drama. Seeding is also up for grabs in some of the finales, so there’s something going on in every game. Certainly those player incentives will be a factor in the player prop betting market as well.
Before looking at the opening lines, let’s look at the playoff scenarios and keep those at the front of our minds for Week 18.
Division Winners
AFC North: Ravens at Steelers (winner clinches AFC North; loser is out)
AFC South: Titans at Jaguars (Jags clinch with win); Colts at Texans (Texans need win, Jags loss)
NFC South: Panthers at Buccaneers (win/tie wins division for CAR; if Falcons beat Saints, Panthers win division tiebreaker at 8-9 even with loss to Bucs)
NFC West: Seahawks at 49ers (winner gets NFC West and NFC No. 1 seed)
Playoff Seeding
AFC
Chargers at Broncos/Dolphins at Patriots/Titans at Jaguars (Broncos own tiebreaker for No. 1 seed over Patriots; Patriots get No. 1 seed with win and Broncos loss; Jaguars own tiebreakers if DEN/NE both lose and would be No. 1 seed)
Colts at Texans/Chargers at Broncos/Jets at Bills (Texans win clinches No. 5 seed; Chargers own tiebreaker over Bills for No. 6 seed)
NFC
Lions at Bears/Commanders at Eagles (Bears hold tiebreaker for No. 2 seed over Eagles)
Seahawks at 49ers/Cardinals at Rams (49ers would fall to No. 6 seed with loss and Rams win vs. Cardinals; SEA/SF tie would leave Rams as No. 6 seed, 49ers as No. 5 seed)
Got it? Good. Took me a while to figure it all out, too.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 18 NFL Odds Report:
Odds as of Sunday, December 28 at 9:25 p.m. PT
Panthers at Buccaneers (-3, 43.5)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
As mentioned above, there is a path in which the Bucs win and still don’t win the NFC South, but it would take a pretty massive upset on Week 17 in Monday Night Football by the Falcons over the Rams. If that does not happen, this is a cut-and-dry game with the winner going to the playoffs to host a game and the loser reflecting on what could have been. We’ll hear a ton of talk about how absurd it is that an 8-9 team or 9-8 team will be hosting a 12 or 13-win team in the Wild Card Round.
The Panthers just beat the Bucs in Week 16 in Charlotte by a 23-20 score with Tampa Bay -2.5 or -3 on the road. Obviously we’ve seen an adjustment with these two teams, especially with how bad the Bucs have played lately as Circa opened -3 and DraftKings opened -3.5.
Seahawks (-1.5, 49.5) at 49ers
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
Two of the best teams in the NFC playoff field square off in Week 18 and there’s a lot on the line. The NFC West title and a bye are both up for grabs in Santa Clara here. Furthermore, with Super Bowl 60 at Levi’s Stadium, it is possible for San Francisco to have a path to the Lombardi Trophy that includes never leaving home. It is wild to think that 14-3 is the requirement to win a division, but that’s the difference between a bye and playing a road game during Wild Card Weekend. This line opened Seahawks -1.5 at DraftKings and 49ers -1.5 at Fanduel after San Francisco’s win on Sunday Night Football.
Saints at Falcons (-2.5, 43.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
This game only has playoff implications if the Falcons beat the Rams on Monday Night Football. Because that probably won’t happen, this is a game with no playoff stakes and two teams simply playing for pride. The Saints have shown a lot of pride lately and everybody in that organization knows the stakes for Tyler Shough, who is hoping to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. A good showing here would certainly help, as it would mean a five-game winning streak to end the season. But, the Falcons haven’t quit on the campaign either. Even though this game is just the end of the string for these two teams, we should get a good effort from both. DraftKings opened Falcons -3, while Fanduel was -2.5 with some extra juice.
Cowboys (-4.5, 52.5) at Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
One of the few games with nothing at stake is this matchup between the Giants and Cowboys. Jaxson Dart wraps up his rookie season and Dallas heads into another offseason of uncertainty, though it has nothing to do with Micah Parsons this time around. The Cowboys don’t have the same draft pick considerations that the Giants have, which may be a factor, but players don’t really tank. Coaches and front offices tank, so the Giants should still mostly show up here. Dallas opened -5.5 at Fanduel, -4.5 at DraftKings and early bettors were pretty okay with those numbers.
Browns at Bengals (-7, 43.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
All that’s really at stake here is Myles Garrett setting the single-season sack record, as the Steelers decided that Week 17 was more about preventing Garrett from getting the record as opposed to running a functioning offense. Joe Burrow and the Bengals are looking to end the season on a high note and head into a pivotal offseason with some momentum, while the Browns are incentivized to lose here after hurting their draft position last week. That said, who knows if a decision has already been made on Kevin Stefanski or not, but the Browns keep playing hard for him and every rep for Shedeur Sanders is important. Cincinnati opened -8.5 at DraftKings and -6.5 at Fanduel in one of the few games with no playoff stakes.
Colts at Texans (-10, 40.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
We are waiting for the official announcement as to whether or not it will be Philip Rivers or Riley Leonard for the Colts in the season finale against the Texans. Indianapolis’ shocking fall from grace in tandem with the Daniel Jones season-ending injury did give us one of the coolest stories of the season, but this is still a Colts team that went 0-3 with Rivers and probably should give Leonard a look.
As far as the Texans, who enter the week at 11-5 with both the Bills and Chargers, Houston has the head-to-head tiebreaker over both teams, having beaten the Bills 23-19 and the Chargers 20-16 this past week. They can still win the division, but they would need the Jaguars to slip up against the Titans.
Titans at Jaguars (-10.5, 46)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
This one opened -10 or -11, as the Jaguars do need to show up on Sunday, at least for a little while, as they have to beat the Titans to win the AFC South. The goal for Liam Coen will probably be to jump on Tennessee early and then be able to keep some guys out of harm’s way in the second half. We’ll probably see that sentiment show up in the derivative betting markets, with a first half line that looks pretty inflated. Tennessee has been playing pretty hard lately, but Jacksonville is still on a nice heater and should take care of business.
Remember, if Houston sees Jacksonville up big, that could shift the dynamics in their game against the Colts, as they may opt to sit some guys if the division is no longer in play. Live betting considerations could be big this weekend.
Packers at Vikings (-6.5, 37.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
The only game with a team that has clinched a playoff berth that doesn’t matter this week is this one. Regardless of what happens here, the Packers will be the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoffs. With Jordan Love sidelined for last week’s game against the Ravens, expect him to sit out again here with no reason to put him at risk. Malik Willis shook off an injury of his own to go 18-of-21 for 288 yards with a TD and he also led the team with nine carries for 60 yards and two TD against the Ravens. The Vikings have not quit on the season at all, despite having to start Max Brosmer at QB and can finish off a winning season with a victory here, which should be something of a rallying cry. This line absolutely suggests that Clayton Tune will start for Green Bay.
Commanders at Eagles (-7.5, 42.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Eagles survived in the slop against the Bills to improve to 11-5 and give themselves a legitimate chance at being the No. 2 seed in the NFC, but they really need to worry more about fixing their own problems than who they’ll play during Wild Card Weekend. Philly had zero passing yards in the second half against the Bills and needed an errant throw on a two-point conversion attempt to win a game that they led 13-0. This team has some issues and can maybe iron them out in a controlled scrimmage against the Commanders…
On the other hand, Nick Sirianni can opt to give some guys a break. Based on what we saw from Tanner McKee last season, Philadelphia can sit some starters and still win with him at the helm and with the depth on their 53-man roster. Frankly, that’s the route that I would go. If you win, great. If you don’t, okay, so long as you rest some guys and get healthy in the process. The opener of -7 at Circa and 7.5 at DraftKings implies that Jalen Hurts and others probably will not suit up.
Dolphins at Patriots (-10.5, 46.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Quinn Ewers picked up his first win as a starting QB over the slumping Buccaneers and he and the Dolphins have the opportunity to get some more good vibes rolling into the offseason with an upset win over the Patriots here. New England and Denver entered Week 18 tied for the top spot in the division, but they did not play head-to-head, so it comes down to the next tiebreaker of “Common Games”, which the Broncos lead. With Denver taking on the Chargers in a tricky game, Mike Vrabel and his coaches have some decisions to make here.
Jets at Bills (-11.5, 39.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Jets got embarrassed by the Patriots in Week 17 and run the risk of the same thing in Week 18, although Buffalo doesn’t really have much to play for. Putting a hobbled Josh Allen at risk to maybe be the No. 5 or No. 6 seed instead of the No. 7 seed doesn’t really line up from a risk-reward calculation. It’s more likely that we see Allen used like it’s a preseason game or maybe not used at all, so I’d go on the assumption that Mitchell Trubisky starts. To be honest, if this was the Week 17 game, the Bills would be favored by more than 11 (Circa), 11.5 (DK), or 12.5 (FD), but the books do seem to be protecting a little bit against Allen (and others) being held out of the game.
With the Texans playing early, Buffalo will have the intel that they need.
Chiefs (-6.5, 35.5) at Raiders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Chris Oladokun wraps up a lost season for the Chiefs, who will play their final game in Week 18 for the first time ever. The last time the Chiefs missed the playoffs, the season was 17 weeks long. Years of long seasons and injuries seem to have Kansas City in a position where they just don’t have a lot in the tank right now, as they’ve dropped five in a row. The Raiders should lose this game to help their draft positioning, but it’s hard to tell players to lose, despite the organization’s best efforts putting Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby on IR prior to last week. The Raiders haven’t been favored over the Chiefs since Week 15 of the 2012 season and still can’t be favored even against Oladokun.
Chargers at Broncos (-7.5, 38.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
These AFC West rivals square off in what amounts to a pretty interesting game. Denver is playing for home-field advantage and a bye. The Chargers are hoping to get some help and move up to the No. 5 slot in the AFC playoffs because there is an advantage to facing the AFC North winner as opposed to one of the better division champs. At the same time, being healthy going into the playoffs is better for your odds than your first-round opponent in a situation such as this. We’ll see how both coaches handle this one, but Denver certainly has more to play for because the elevation and weather could be big factors in their favor and a bye never hurts this deep into the season either.
Lions at Bears (-1.5, 49.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Bears find themselves in a tricky spot this week. Do they rest some players in hopes of staying healthy for the Wild Card Round or do they make a push for the No. 2 seed? Chicago holds the head-to-head tiebreaker against Philadelphia, as the Eagles host the Commanders. With Philly very likely to win, Chicago would need a win to tie at 12-5 and take down that No. 2 seed. Is that more important than resting guys? It’s a fair question and one that oddsmakers seem to be leaving us to answer.
Cardinals at Rams (45.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
I usually don’t include the MNF teams because injuries can happen and throw off the odds, but I did want to mention that this game could have some meaning. There is a very obvious advantage to playing the NFC South winner in the 4 vs. 5 game. San Francisco currently holds the division record tiebreaker, but the 49ers have a tougher game against the Seahawks than the Rams have against the Cardinals. At least the Rams will know their options because the Seahawks and 49ers play on Saturday. With a win and Seattle loss, they would have the deciding tiebreaker over the Seahawks to be the No. 5 seed, which is an enormous advantage in the Wild Card Round.
Ravens (-3, 42.5) at Steelers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
The Ravens and Steelers game is as cut-and-dry as it gets and because of the standalone outcome, the NFL opted to put the game in primetime on Sunday. The total on this one opened 42.5 or 43.5 depending on the sportsbook and the spread was -3 (-110) ranging to -3 (-120). We’ll still wait to see how the practice week goes for Lamar Jackson, but given that his team gave him a chance at this Week 18 game to make the playoffs, it would be a shocker to see him not suit up.
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