Week 2 NFL Predictions
I picked a bad week last week to give out a couple of totals in the NFL. We lost the Chiefs/Chargers Under late in that game after the Under looked good for the majority of the game, and then the Falcons and Bucs never got it going offensively. It’s a new week, and I will say that TSI had a great Week 1 overall, so I’m encouraged by the early results. Historically, it has performed well early in the season. The late-season weather and injury adjustments are where it gets tricky, but I’ve built my market estimation formula that should help mitigate that later on. For now, let’s get to this Week 2 slate and see where TSI has value for us.
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
Dallas Cowboys (-6) vs. New York Giants, O/U 44.5
Dallas shocked a lot of people by looking competent in their opener against the defending champion Eagles, losing by just four points as eight-point underdogs. New York looked pretty bad despite being the ATS pick of a lot of sharp NFL bettors I respect. So, where does that leave us in Week 2 as these divisional rivals collide? TSI projects Dallas as just a four-point favorite here, and the way the market priced these teams last week would indicate the Cowboys should be laying just two points, so the Giants are getting extremely discounted after just one data point. In college, I like to fade teams the week after they play the Ohio States and Georgias of the world because they’re so physically and emotionally drained after that, and I think similar logic could apply here to Dallas having to play Philly in Week 1. No, the Giants aren’t very good, but the data says they should keep it inside the number.
NFL Pick: New York Giants +6 or better
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks, O/U 40
Pittsburgh played a thrilling game against the Jets that sailed over the total. They ended up winning by two as 2.5-3 point favorites, depending on when you bet it. Seattle took San Francisco to the brink but came up just short in the final seconds of winning outright – had they been playing for the cover, they easily had a field goal that would’ve made them lose by one but covered the +2.5, instead they went for the win (of course) and failed. But, I think people are going to see the final score, see they didn’t cover and didn’t score much against the 49ers defense and write them off against Aaron Rodgers this week. Not TSI. TSI projects Pittsburgh -1, and the market pricing would align with that, so we’re getting two points of inflation on the Steelers since they won their game, and we’re currently getting the key number of 3 on the ‘dog.
NFL Pick: Seattle Seahawks +3 or better
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