Week 3 NFL Best Bets from Steve Makinen:

You can probably go back through my recent history of NFL betting and find that my most successful weeks have come when the betting public has gotten hammered by the books. This stems from a number of reasons, but primarily, I like to go against the grain in betting, and use of the DK Betting Splits Systems is a good way to do this. 

Second, I’m sure you have realized by now that I am a huge believer in using league-wide betting systems as a backing for most or all of my plays. In most cases, these systems are contrarian by nature. With all that said, this past weekend was a big one for me in that I was 5-1-1 ATS on my seven NFL Best Bets, with the push coming in the Houston-Chicago game. 

 

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When I offered the play on Thursday, it was at -6, and quite frankly, the Texans should have won by 20 points, so by no means do I feel bad in recording that one as a tie. In all, my NFL season record is now 10-6-1 ATS, good for 62.5%. After pouring through this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report, I have come up with these plays for Week 3. Let’s cash some tickets…

Baltimore at Dallas

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

In looking at the teams that had realistic 2024 playoff goals that are in desperate mode heading into Week 3’s games, I’d have to put Baltimore at the top of the list in terms of “must-cover,” with a close second to Indy. Cincinnati has a bigger point spread and could win without covering. The history of winless teams in Week 3 is strong: Teams that start out 0-2 SU in the NFL are 26-25 SU but 35-15-1 ATS (70%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010. Head coach John Harbaugh’s team has also been a very good road team in recent years, going 38-20 ATS (65.5%) since 2017. He has won many big games in spots like this before. 

Even though they are an underdog, the betting public is actually backing Baltimore here. That is not bad as it has them qualifying for two DK Betting Splits systems: 1) In NFL non-conferences games of 2023, DK majority handle bettors were actually quite sharp, as this majority group was 41-29 ATS (58.6%). 2) In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 56-40 ATS (58.3%). These have proven to be situations in which going against the grain pays off. Dallas has some obvious problems after last week’s loss. Baltimore needs this one and is favored accordingly, and QB Lamar Jackson’s 20-1 SU record vs. the NFC is impossible to ignore.

NFL Best Bet: I’ll go Baltimore -1 here in Dallas

Carolina at Las Vegas

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

Oddsmakers were so convinced that head coach Dave Canales’ decision to bench starting QB Bryce Young in favor of Andy Dalton was correct that they actually moved the line 1.5 points toward the Panthers after the decision. To me, the decision is as easy as benching a player that was mentally and physically overwhelmed and replacing him with a professional and competent performer at the sport’s most key position. It IS a big deal. 

The Panthers are actually set up in three great systems for Sunday: 1) Teams that start out 0-2 SU in the NFL are 26-25 SU but 35-15-1 ATS (70%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010 2) Winless teams in the NFL are 20-35-1 SU but 36-20 ATS (64.3%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs of +3.5 points or more since 2010 and 3) NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or less first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 19-32 SU but 34-17 ATS (66.7%) over the last decade-plus. Let’s face it, the Raiders got a huge, surprising win last week, but this is not a franchise that has dealt with success well lately. In fact, the Raiders are just 14-19 ATS as favorites since 2019. I don’t trust them here.

NFL Best Bet: I’ll back Carolina +5 here to be much more competitive with Dalton

Chicago at Indianapolis

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (CBS)

In terms of offensive productivity in the first two games of the season, this is the biggest mismatch on the Week 3 board in the NFL. The Bears have been anemic on offense, averaging more yards per rush (3.5) than per pass attempt (3.0). Even so, they are 2-0 ATS. No way this streak lasts much longer. The Colts, though 0-2, have produced over 6.8 yards per play, good for third in the league. They qualify for a nice system here because of it: Teams gaining more than 6.75 yards per play in the first two weeks have continued their impressive play in Week 3 with a record of 18-7 SU & ATS (72%) since 2015.

The Bears and their rookie QB Caleb Williams also fall into two tough situations in this game: First, rookie starters have combined for a record of just 90-114 ATS (44.1%) in road/neutral games, and second, in their last 133 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 43-92 SU and 59-74-2 ATS (44.3%). This trend dates back to 2018. Both of these angles coincide with poor trends for Chicago as a franchise, 25-41 ATS in road/neutral since 2016, and 18-29 ATS when coming off SU loss since 2019. In my opinion, the records of these teams should be reversed, and the scales will be evened up after Sunday.

NFL Best Bet: Let’s go with Indy -1.5 to get its first win of 2024

Denver at Tampa Bay

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

The first two weeks of the NFL season have made it such that it is difficult to lay more than 3-points in any game. However, to me, this game in Tampa Bay could be an exception. This is an absolute mismatch in terms of how these teams are playing right now. QB Baker Mayfield and the Bucs look sharp, are gaining a prolific 8.7 yards per pass attempt, and have allowed just 39 points in the first two games. Denver has only scored 26 points and is gaining 4.7 yards per pass. 

Head coach Sean Payton’s team is actually fortunate to be sitting at 1-1 ATS right now. QB Bo Nix’s early struggles were somewhat easy to predict, and he is falling into a lot of the rookie QB patterns, such as these: 1) The results of late of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of just 90-114 ATS (44.1%) in road/neutral games. 2) Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5-points or more have won just 15 games, going 15-110 SU and 47-75-3 ATS (38.5%). And 3) In their last 133 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 43-92 SU and 59-74-2 ATS (44.3%). In week three a year ago, Payton’s team went to Florida (at Miami) and lost 70-20. I don’t see anything that bad here, but a relatively easy win for the Bucs should be in order.

NFL Best Bet: Let’s lay the 6.5-points with Tampa Bay

Kansas City at Atlanta

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

What a huge win for the Falcons at Philadelphia on Monday night, almost as if they were able to completely flush the Week 1 ugly performance and get back to business. Oh wait, that’s exactly what I predicted they would do, mostly because of the stable veteran presence the Falcons now have at the quarterback position. Well, for this week, they have another huge game, this time hosting the defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs, who are a very fortunate 2-0 at this point. Head coach Andy Reid’s team looks ripe for the picking, and I would think a Sunday night game is an ideal time for getting them. 

Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 17-18 SU and 21-12-2 ATS (63.6%) dating back to 2017. In addition, momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a win are on a current 20-3 SU and 15-8 ATS (65.2%) surge. Getting back to Cousins, veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 113-66 SU & 95-73-11 ATS (56.5%), and 41-66 SU but 61-41-5 ATS (59.8%) when playing as underdogs of 3 points or more. This hit last week for the Falcons, and I think it will hit again here.

NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Falcons +3.5 on SNF

NY Giants at Cleveland

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

I mentioned earlier in the Bucs-Broncos game that the results so far in 2024 make it difficult to find games in which to lay points. In that regard, I think it only makes sense when you have an underdog so bad it’s not worth backing and a favorite playing well enough to make it worth laying points. Both arguments have to be there. In this case of Giants versus Browns, they certainly don’t look to be. 

The Browns offense is “off” and at just 17.5 PPG in the first two outings, they aren’t a team I would trust to cover 6.5 points on anyone right now. In fact, after two games, the Giants’ maligned offense is actually gaining more yardage, 272 YPG to 263.5 YPG. Cleveland has a win over 0-2 Jacksonville and a 16-point loss to a Dallas team that was crushed a week later on its ledger. New York meanwhile, was oh so close to a win last week at Washington, and was beaten soundly by a Vikings’ team that looked to have been badly underrated at this point. 

So, I ask…are these teams really 4-1/2 points different from one another, assuming about 2 points for home field? I wouldn’t think so. Plus, we have a pair of Week 3 systems in play that suggest the G-Men could be live dogs Sunday: 1) Teams that start out 0-2 SU in the NFL are 26-25 SU but 35-15-1 ATS (70%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010 2) Winless teams in the NFL are 20-35-1 SU but 36-20 ATS (64.3%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs of +3.5 points or more since 2010

NFL Best Bet: I’ll grab the 6.5-points with the Giants in this one

San Francisco at LA Rams

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Am I missing something here? Aren’t both of these teams equally banged up when it comes to their start playmakers? So why the massive line adjustment? Had this game been played in Week 1, my Power Ratings indicate that the 49ers would have been 2/2.5-point favorites maximum on the road at Los Angeles. The Rams have since lost WRs Nacua and Kupp, the 49ers are down McCaffery and Samuel. Both teams also played poorly last week after strong opening-week performances. So again, why is this line ballooned up to SF -7? 

The systems I have put together for Week 3 say LA could be the play in this one, as teams that start out 0-2 SU in the NFL are 26-25 SU but 35-15-1 ATS (70%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010, and winless teams in the NFL are 20-35-1 SU but 36-20 ATS (64.3%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs of +3.5 points or more since 2010. I also recognize that San Francisco and its fans usually travel well to LA, so even if you take any home-field advantage away from the Rams, the line is still high. Either way, the betting public is eating it up, and is all over head coach Kyle Shanahan’s team. However, in NFL divisional games of 2022 & 2023, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group was just 71-100 ATS (41.5%). They’ve also struggled when backing road favorites since the start of the 2022 season, going 80-105 ATS (43.2%). As long as QB Stafford is in, the Rams will always be a live dog.

NFL Best Bet: I’ll take the +7 with the Rams

Jacksonville at Buffalo

Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Are you ready to kiss Jacksonville goodbye for 2024? If so, then this MNF game probably knocks the Jaguars out. I’m not to that point yet and actually believe that this could be a good matchup for head coach Doug Pederson’s team, as they are the best rush defense the Bills will have faced thus far, and so far, Buffalo has not proven that it can move the ball consistently through the air. Granted, the Bills are off to a great start, but I think there are still holes to fill, putting much more emphasis on this system: Since 2008, the league’s best undefeated teams after two weeks, those having outscored teams by 25 points or more, are 25-22 SU but 16-29-2 ATS (35.6%) in Week 3. 

The Monday night lights also put the differing starts between these teams into focus, as won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 30-29 SU but just 19-38-2 ATS (33.3%) in the last 59 MNF games not matching teams with identical records. Plus, in concert with the theme of big underdogs faring well on MNF, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 10-11 SU and 15-6 ATS (71.4%) in their L21 tries against teams scoring higher than that. If that weren’t enough, underdogs have won the last six ATS in the JAC-BUF series. Expect a desperate Jaguars team to play like its life depends on it, because it does.

NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Jacksonville +5.5 in the MNF opener

Washington at Cincinnati

Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ABC)

I was all set to lay the points with Cincinnati here because I believe they are not your typical 0-3 team, but with a line this big and trends showing rookie QBs cover spreads well on MNF, I figured the Bengals’ prime motivation is in winning this game, covering the number is a distant second. Thus, I’m going to focus on the total. It is somewhat underrated in how frequently Washington has gone under the total in recent years, as they are 39-28 Under since 2020. The predecessors to this Commanders team were far worse defensively, and actually better offensively, so an Under lean nowadays makes even more sense.

QB Jayden Daniels is off to a decent start, but the inability to get the ball into the end zone has to be a concern. As it is rookie quarterbacks have struggled for bettors as early-season starters and are on a 26-9 Under the total (74.3%) run in their last 35 Week 1-3 contests. This will be the toughest environment Daniels has faced too, as Bengals fans are sure to get behind their desperate team on a Monday night. As it is Cincy is on a 5-2-1 Under run on MNF, scoring just 17.6 PPG. Nothing I have suggests there will be a lot points scored here. I’ll bet accordingly.

NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Under 47 in WAS-CIN MNF nightcap

For more NFL Week 3 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 3 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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