Week 3 NFL Odds
A Monday Night Football doubleheader is yet to come, as we can’t quite close the book on Week 2 just yet, but the odds are out for the Week 3 NFL schedule and there are quite a few intriguing numbers. Of course, we also have the Bengals beginning life without Joe Burrow, as the drop from Burrow to Jake Browning is pretty significant, though not completely a kiss of death for the Bengals.
Be sure to check out Zach Cohen’s Buccaneers vs. Texans and Chargers vs. Raiders previews after taking a look at what Week 3 has in store for us.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 3 NFL Odds Report:
Dolphins at Bills (-12.5, 49.5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
Though the Bills had a bit of a scare when Josh Allen ran off the field following a faceplant into the grass, he was no worse for the wear and his Bills went on to win by 20 over the Jets. Meanwhile, in the other AFC East game, the Dolphins lost at home to the Patriots, who had lost at home to the Raiders in Week 1. So, it isn’t too surprising to see Buffalo laying double digits at home and with a number that has grown a little bit. The Bills were mostly -10 or -10.5, but are now as high as -13 in the market with the short week.
Colts (-3, 43.5) at Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
AFC South rivals come together here, as the Colts, who stole one from the Broncos after trailing most of the game, make the short trek to Nashville to take on the winless Titans. This game provides a bit of a respite for Cam Ward, whose NFL career has started against the Broncos and Rams defenses, but Indy just did a number on the Denver defense with over seven yards per play. The Daniel Jones experiment is working well and Jonathan Taylor just ran for a buck 65 on Denver’s vaunted front seven. Not surprisingly, this total and this spread have both ticked up a bit, moving to -3 with extra juice or -3.5 in some places and with a bump of a point on the total.
Falcons (-3.5, 44.5) at Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Falcons usually have a flair for the dramatic, as a lot of their games end up being close calls. That was not the case with a primetime viewing audience in a strong 22-6 win over the Vikings. The Panthers actually had plenty of drama in their game against the Cardinals, as many Survivor players were puckered in the fourth quarter of that one. While it was a decent showing from Carolina, Atlanta has rightfully grown into a bigger favorite off of their performance, as we’ve seen two solid efforts out of them thus far. Let’s see if this one gets to -4 or if some brave souls take Carolina and pull this down to 3.
Packers (-8, 42.5) at Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Browns were able to mostly match wits with the Ravens for a half and even held Derrick Henry to just 23 rushing yards, but the end result was not pretty. A 41-17 clubbing dropped the Browns to 0-2 and 0-3 is looming with the Packers more than a TD favorite on the road. Green Bay will be well-rested here with a few extra days after playing on Thursday Night Football. They’ve also looked quite good in that standalone game and in a marquee matchup against the Lions, so you can see why they’re worthy of this sort of favorite role. And they’ll be an extremely popular teaser pick at either -8 or -8.5 to cross through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Bengals at Vikings (-4.5, 43.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
This is going to be an interesting line to follow. Burrow’s injury is obviously a huge deal, but the Bengals were able to win thanks to Browning. The Week 1 win over the Bears didn’t age super well for Minnesota, as the Lions really put it on them in Week 2. And then a few hours later, the Vikings failed to score a TD against the Falcons. So, this is going to be a rather perplexing handicap. We’ve seen enough of Browning to know that he’s competent. And I think we’re still all wondering that about J.J. McCarthy.
Rams at Eagles (-4.5, 45.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Rams are on the road again after a successful trip to Music City. The Eagles won the Super Bowl rematch against the Chiefs. So, it was a good Week 2 for both teams, but this line is one that stands out to me. Given that Matthew Stafford missed all of the preseason, there was some uncertainty about the Rams coming into the season. So far, Stafford looks fine, completing 71% of his passes with a 3/1 TD/INT ratio. The Eagles represent a huge step up from the Texans and Titans. But, if we assume home-field advantage to be somewhere in the realm of 1.5 or 2 points, how many people would have the Rams and Eagles separated by just a field goal or so on a neutral field? And the 4.5 line is actually one of the higher ones on the board, as Circa and others were sitting 3.5 as of Sunday night.
Steelers (-1, 43.5) at Patriots
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The most notable move in this game has been on the total, as the opening line for the lookahead markets was 40.5 at Fanduel, but we’ve seen a 2-3 point bump. The Patriots played a 60-point game down in Miami and the Steelers gave up 31 to the Seahawks. Aaron Rodgers could not replicate the success of his first start, as he had four touchdown passes and no picks against the Jets, but had one TD and two picks against the Seahawks. Honestly, I think this favorite role will flip here, as Rodgers has already been sacked seven times and the stink of that Week 1 loss at home is now off of the Patriots.
Saints at Seahawks (-7.5, 42)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Seahawks had a very nice offensive performance against the Steelers, as Sam Darnold nearly hit three bills and the team had 6.2 yards per play. As much as New Orleans has battled through their first two games, including a perfect 3-for-3 in the red zone against the 49ers, they’re going to be in a tough spot here. The Saints have welcomed two teams with long travels to NOLA thus far, but now it’s their turn to go a long way from home and also play outside for the first time. The Seahawks will be a popular teaser companion to the Packers, that’s for sure. This one was short of a touchdown last week, but it won’t get back there.
Cowboys at Bears (-1.5, 48.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
Scoring was up pretty much league-wide this past week and this is another total that has been bumped up. That will happen when Russell Wilson drops 450 yards on your defense. It was a wild fourth quarter in Jerry World with 41 of the game’s 77 points. But, at least the offense held up its end of the bargain. And the Bears just had 52 dropped on them by the Lions, so the Cowboys appear to be in a good spot once again. Is this the elixir that the Bears offense needs to get on track? I guess we’ll have to wait and see, but market confidence is pretty low in this team, despite the short favorite role here.
Cardinals (-1, 43) at 49ers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
Speaking of market confidence, it would seem that Mac Jones doesn’t have a lot of supporters. With Brock Purdy hurt, the 49ers went to New Orleans and won, but the 2-0 Cardinals are getting a lot of respect here. How much respect? Consider that the last time Arizona was favored on the road in San Francisco was Week 9 of the 2017 season. Arizona was -2.5 and won 20-10. If this line holds, it will be just the seventh time that the Cardinals have been road favorites over the 49ers dating back to the 1989 season. They are 5-1 in the previous six games.
Chiefs (-5.5, 42.5) at Giants
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Keep a close eye on this line. The Giants had a good preseason and really gave the Cowboys a run for their money in Week 2. The Week 1 dud aside, it has been a pretty good couple of months for this team’s perception. And Kansas City has not looked good to open up the season. Granted, they’ve played the Chargers and Eagles and this is a huge step down in class. You’ll hear all the 0-3 team to make the playoffs talk and a “get right” spot and a bounce back spot and a “circle the wagons” game and all of these cliches and expressions. I cannot wait to see where this line ends up because I think sharper groups are going to be intrigued by the Giants.
Lions at Ravens (-6, 51.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)
The demise of the Lions was a bit premature, as maybe the Packers are just really good. Detroit got its act together offensively to hang 52 points on the Bears. But, the Ravens also did their thing with 41 against Cleveland. So, we have a total in the 50s here and one that did get a bit of an adjustment in light of Sunday’s results. As far as the side, both teams held status quo, so the -6 wasn’t really touched at all, though there were a couple of books showing 5.5 as of Sunday night. This will be a massive betting event on Monday Night Football with a lot of player prop activity, so it should be a great one for the books and one that they will follow closely.
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