Week 3 NFL Odds
Welcome to the Week 3 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I analyze the NFL slate through the lens of respected predictive models to see where there is the most consensus and the most disagreement, which is valuable in determining which bets to potentially make and which ones to stay away from if the data is mixed. Here are the biggest model agreements and disagreements in Week 3.
Note: TeamRankings is a popular sports resource website, FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Note 2: TeamRankings also has the PoolGenius product, a great Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em resource.
Week 3 NFL Odds Model Alignment:
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-5.5), O/U 43.5
There’s no way to rationalize or justify how bad Carolina has been through two games; however, being “bad” doesn’t mean “unbettable”. There’s always a number where that team makes sense to back – to an extent. Our models have an average projection on this game of Atlanta -2.9 with a variance of just 1 point! The most liberal of the group is TeamRankings, which projects Atlanta -3.5, but TSI, FPI and Sagarin all project between 2.5 and 3-point margins in favor of the Falcons. An 0-2 divisional home ‘dog with an inflated line sounds like a recipe for a great bet.
NFL Pick: Panthers +5.5
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) vs. Detroit Lions, O/U 52.5
Circa opened this line with Baltimore as a 6-point favorite; however, that’s been driven down to -4.5 as of Friday morning, and the models certainly support the Lions’ backers here. The model average projection is Ravens -3.5 with a variance of just 1.9 points. TSI is the most Ravens-friendly, but is still only at Ravens -4.4, while FPI, Sagarin and TeamRankings all fall between -2.5 and -4 in favor of Baltimore. There are a couple 5s out there if you shop around, but the models indicate anything at 4.5 or better is a play on the Lions.
NFL Pick: Lions +4.5
Week 3 NFL Odds Model Disagreement
Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) vs. New Orleans Saints, O/U 41.5
We backed Seattle last week against Pittsburgh and they delivered in a big way, winning by two scores as underdogs. The Saints, meanwhile, kept it close with the 49ers but have yet to cover a closing line. Our models are torn on this game, with TSI only projecting Seattle -4.9, but TeamRankings calling for a 10.5-point Seahawks’ win, with Sagarin and FPI falling in between. All the proprietary data I use indicates value on the Saints, but it’s understandable if you stay away based on the model spectrum here.
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals, O/U 45.5
Will he or won’t he? Brock Purdy has reportedly been practicing this week after missing the last game with an injury, but the signals are mixed on whether or not he will actually suit up against the Cardinals in an NFC West clash this Sunday. The models are also mixed, I’d say largely due to the Purdy situation, with FPI actually calling for the upset here but TeamRankings projecting San Francisco by 4.5. TSI and Sagarin are both between -1.5 and -2.5 for the 49ers. I think I will definitely stay away from this game with so much uncertainty.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Fridays, my Tuesday NFL best bets, and my Thursday college football model comparison.
