Week 4 NFL Best Bets and Props from Mike Somich:

Let’s take a look at my Week 4 NFL best bets and props:

 

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Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5; 47) vs. Carolina Panthers

Who would have thought this would be a monster game for the Bengals just four weeks ago, but here we are. After the loss on Monday night, this is a must-win spot for Cincinnati, and they drew a great matchup versus the market darling Panthers. We saw the Bengals offense we wanted to see on Monday, but the defense could not control Daniels. This opponent is easier on both sides of the ball this week. Carolina’s defensive line is a mash unit, and the offense, while better under Dalton, is now banged up as well. Diante Johnson was added to the injury report on Thursday with a groin issue, but he is expected to play. Without Thielen on the field, Johnson’s ability to be 100 percent becomes even more of a focal point.

The Bengals should be able to pick a score on offense. The question is, can the defense get stops? I believe they can do it with the current Panthers roster.

Week 4 NFL Best Bet: Bengals -4.5 and Over 47

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5; 41.5)

1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Saints’ offensive line was considered bottom five in the NFL before the season started. They played way over their skis in Weeks 1 and 2 but came crashing down to earth against the Eagles in Week 3. A large part of that was due to injuries, and it does not look like it will get much help this week. They lost their center to the IR, and Cesar Ruiz has been ruled out this week as well. Derek Carr’s splits when protected and under pressure are extreme. He needs his offensive line to be intact to have success. Kamara was a surprising add to the injury report as well. The Eagles also gave the NFL the script on how to slow down this Saints running game by consistently having five down linemen. I would expect Atlanta to copy that this week.

The Falcons’ offense is also facing injuries on the offensive line, but they have looked better each of the last two weeks with Kirk Cousins to get healthier as the season progresses. I expect they will have enough success to win a lower-scoring game.

Week 4 NFL Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons -2.5

Prop Plays

Carson Steele Over 43.5 Rush Yards, 50+ +135
Carson Steele was clearly the lead back for Kansas City last week, and his rush total does not represent that. The Chiefs were #1 in the NFL last week with a rush success rate and have another good matchup this week against the Chargers. I expect 12-15 carries for Steele, and if that is the case, he will have a good chance to eclipse this low number.

Breece Hall Over 67.5 Rush Yards
The Jets got a nice break after playing three games in ten days. Some of the Hall usage in those games was largely due to that schedule. I expect his carries to tick back up since you have full weeks of rest. He destroyed this Broncos defense last year and should have the opportunity to do so again on Sunday.

Other Plays
Steelers/Colts Under 40.5
Kyler Murray Over 34.5 Rush Yards
Rams/Bears Under 40.5

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