Week 4 NFL Best Bets from Will Hill:

Cincinnati Bengals -140 to Miss the Playoffs

The Bengals were a trendy pick this summer to go from worst to first in the AFC North. That was partly because of recent deep playoff runs, as well as the return of Joe Burrow after missing a good chunk of last season. But a big reason was also their last-place schedule. Games at home against the Patriots and Commanders, among other lesser opponents, gave bettors confidence this team could bank some easy wins. Well, they’ve already played a couple of those “easy” games, and are 0-3. They still have to play six tough AFC North games, as well as games against the Cowboys, Eagles, and Chargers. In order to make the playoffs, the Bengals will have to go 9-5 or 10-4 the rest of the way. The leagues worst defense in yards per play allowed last year is once again showing major holes, the Bengals missing the playoffs again is a good bet.

Week 4 NFL Best Bet: Cincinnati -140 to Miss the Playoffs

 

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Philadelphia (-1.5; 43) at Tampa Bay

The Eagles have lots of questions to key cogs of their offense coming into this one. Offensive linemen Lane Johnson and Mekhi Becton are both hurt ( Becton appears to be on track to play with a wrap over his dislocated finger), while star wide receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are both questionable. With diminished weapons and a beleaguered offensive line, I’m not sure how much explosiveness we’re getting from this Eagles offense. On the other side of the ball, the Bucs play at one of the slowest paces in the league, and are averaging only 54.7 plays per game (3rd slowest pace in the league), and will be facing an Eagles defense that is coming off of an impressive showing in New Orleans. These teams met in the playoffs last January, and the Eagles were held to just 9 points. I think all signs here point to an under here. 

Week 4 NFL Best Bet: Under 43

Pittsburgh (-1.5, 40) at Indianapolis

Going back to the well with Steelers Unders until it betrays me. The Steelers are a defense-first team that is getting just enough from their offense, and I expect them to try to replicate the same formula this week against the Colts. The final score in Steeler’s games so far have been 20-10, 13-6, and 20-12. An elite defense, a running quarterback who keeps the clock moving, and an old-school, conservative coach are all ideal ingredients for the Steelers playing their 4th straight under to start the season.

Week 4 NFL Best Bet: Under 40

Bonus College Best Bet:

Louisville +6.5 at Notre Dame

Louisville coach Jeff Brohm is 28–15 ATS as an underdog since joining Western Kentucky, with 20 straight up wins. Outside of Brohm’s knack for winning as a dog, this matchup also favors Louisville. Notre Dame is not a big-play passing attack, and they have an inexperienced offensive line. In order for them to be successful, they will have to run the ball, which could prove tricky here. Louisville is 33rd in the country, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry, and has several NFL prospects up front defensively. On the other side of the ball, Louisville will likely try to avoid testing an elite ND secondary, meaning lots of run calls and a shorter game where getting points is extra valuable. I think Brohm figures out a way to keep it close, as he usually does. 

Week 5 College Football Best Bet: Louisville +6.5

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