Week 4 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:
There’s an old saying: “All’s well that ends well.” Unfortunately, that’s exactly the opposite of what happened to my Week 3 NFL Best Bets. After a 5-1 start in the earlier games on Sunday, I proceeded to finish up the week with an 0-3 skid in the primetime games on Sunday and Monday. If I could do it over again, I’d keep my Falcons pick but would have simply stayed away on Monday’s two wild games.
Of course, if you would tell me I could go 5-4 every week in the NFL, I’d probably take it, just not wanting to do it in that fashion. Overall, for the season, I am now at 15-10-1 ATS, good for 60%. If you recall last year, I finished at 58.3% for the season, so hopefully, I’m on pace for that and a little more. Looking ahead to Week 4, you will see that the recent fascination and public understanding of underdogs covering so often has pushed me more toward favorites. This could be a week where the chalk gets some of its money back.
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Denver at NY Jets
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Jets’ immediate future is looking brighter. Not only are they playing recognizably better since the opener on both sides of the ball, but the schedule the rest of the way is falling into place as well, as teams we expected to be much better are unraveling. I wouldn’t count this week’s game in that group, as Denver is off a win and was not expected to be that strong, but in my opinion, it’s a very good spot for New York. It’s a matchup of rookie QB vs. most seasoned veteran QB.
I have several angles concerning that particular facet of this game that have me backing the favored hosts here. First, the results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of just 92-115 ATS (44.4%) in road/neutral games. The Broncos are 2-0 ATS on the road so far with Bo Nix. It’s tough to see that continuing. Also, since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5-points or more have won just 16 games, going 16-110 SU and 48-75-3 ATS (39%). This goes directly against a new team veteran QB system showing those guys are 28-3 SU and 19-11-1 ATS (63.3%) at home as favorites of 7.5 points or more.
Overall, at home they are 56.5%, so taking guys like Aaron Rodgers at home usually makes sense. With Denver still struggling to produce much through the air and the Jets’ defense heating up, I find it hard to see Denver scoring much more than 10-14 points.
Week 4 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go NY Jets -7.5 in this one
Jacksonville at Houston
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
This is one game where the underdog makes some sense. As I stated last week in the Giants-Browns game, I look to back favorites when it looks like the favorite deserves the respect. The jury is still out on Houston, as the Texans aren’t exactly clicking and, in fact, could be reeling off of the ugly loss at Minnesota last Sunday. This is also a divisional matchup and perhaps the Jaguars’ last gasp and staying in the hunt for 2024.
As could be expected, bettors are all over Houston here, with 65% of bets going that way as of Thursday. When the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 76-99 ATS (43.4%) over the last 1-1/2 seasons. In addition, as hard as it is to stomach after watching Jacksonville get tagged at Buffalo on Monday, the loss actually sets up head coach Doug Pederson’s team in a nice system spot: NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3-points or more, going 8-19-2 SU but 20-8-1 ATS (71.4%) in their last 29 tries.
This angle is also in play: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-72 SU but 56-29 ATS (65.9%) as underdogs of 5.5-points or more since 2006.
Week 4 NFL Best Bet: Let’s take +6.5 points with the Jaguars here
Kansas City at LA Chargers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
As I indicated in the intro earlier, my overwhelming lean this week is to favorites. However, in addition to the Jaguars just above, I also like the spot the Chargers are sitting in for this key game with Kansas City. Last indications I saw show that there was about a 70% chance of QB Justin Herbert being able to go in this one. If he doesn’t, we get nice underdog points. If he does, I’m stealing some points by taking the game on Thursday at +7. It would seem oddsmakers don’t think he’s going to be ready to go.
While I hate going against the Chiefs again here, I’m not sure I can recall a team that gets more lucky calls, bounces, and other good fortune than this one does. That said, they haven’t been good in the huge favorite role with QB Patrick Mahomes, as he is 28-2 SU but 12-17-1 ATS (42.9%) in his last 30 games as a favorite of 7+ points.
The Chargers also get an early bye after this week, and there are two pre-bye angles in their favor: Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 53-21-1 ATS since 2013, 71.6%). Also, play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 32-17-2 ATS since 2015, 65.3%). While not great overall in pre-bye week games lately, the Chargers are 9-3-1 ATS in that situation in their last 13 versus divisional foes. Coach Harbaugh’s team is playing well on defense and running the ball strongly. Those are great underdog traits.
Week 4 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go LA Chargers +7
LA Rams at Chicago
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)
It is strange to think that someone like me can get a better feeling from a team that lost last week in comparison to one that had a massive comeback win in its last game as the teams prepare to go head-to-head on Sunday. Looking at this Rams-Bears matchup, I have some real concerns with LA, and I’m encouraged by what I last saw from Chicago.
The Rams’ come-from-behind win last week was nothing short of miraculous against the 49ers. It doesn’t feel like something that is going to last however. This team is giving up massive yardage through the air, and QB Matt Stafford is paying the price for it as he is having to face hits and pressure in leading comebacks. Without his top two receiving weapons available, this will catch up to head coach Sean McVay’s team. The stats right now are startling, with LA allowing 9.4 yards per pass attempt.
The good news for the Bears is that QB Caleb Williams showed some life last week in the loss at Indy, throwing for 340+ yards and finally demonstrating some of the big play ability the franchise figured he had when they drafted him #1. I expect a nice game from him here, as since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 28-8 SU and 25-10-1 ATS (71.4%). For what its worth, this has also been a big host dominated series lately, with home team on 6-1 ATS run in the Rams-Bears series.
Week 4 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Chicago -3 to get a key win on Sunday
Minnesota at Green Bay
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (CBS)
After impressive back-to-back wins with QB Malik Willis taking the snaps in replacement of Jordan Love, football experts are finally showing some respect to Green Bay Head Coach Matt LaFleur. As a Wisconsin-ite, I will say its long overdue. Now a year-plus removed from moving on from Aaron Rodgers, we are finally seeing what a true LaFleur offense can do. What we are seeing is great balance and quarterbacks being set up for success.
With Love expected to be back for this big showdown with the undefeated Vikings, I expect we will get the best from the Packers. LaFleur’s teams have dominated NFC North foes, going 20-10 ATS (66.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019. They are also on a 29-16 ATS surge at home, having restored some of the Lambeau mystique that was seemingly lost. We also have a significant trend in this rivalry to consider, with favorites having won the last five SU and ATS in the Vikings-Packers series.
This will be Minnesota QB Sam Darnold’s first real road test of the season, and he is just 6-16 SU and ATS (27.3%) as a road underdog. If all that weren’t enough, the betting public is getting behind me and GB on this one, a good sign, since in another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 56-40 ATS (58.3%).
Week 4 NFL Best Bet: I expect a competitive game, but home field wins it for Green Bay -3
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
Philadelphia is really quite fortunate to be 2-1 right now, as it could easily be a different story, having played three games decided by a total of eight points. That said, winning close games is a key part of being a successful team in the NFL. At this point though, there might not be another team in the league more needing of a bye week. Philly is getting tested and getting physically beat up already.
The good news is that head coach Nick Sirianni’s team will be getting that bye week early— next week, in fact. Typically, he has gotten some of his team’s best performances in pre-bye week games, as they own an eight-game pre-bye week winning streak, both SU & ATS since 2016 and are 13-3 SU and ATS since 2008. They are also on a 12-1 SU and ATS surge in pre-bye week games as a favorite, allowing 16.7 PPG.
On the other sideline, for as good as QB Baker Mayfield and the Bucs seemed to have positioned themselves in Weeks 1 and 2, it all unraveled last week in an ugly 26-7 loss at home to the previously winless Broncos. At this point, the numbers don’t look very strong at all, more so quite average. Just 21.3 PPG scored, 277 YPG on offense and actually being outgained by nearly 100 YPG overall. Tampa Bay’s Effective Strength Rating is just +0.2 right now, essentially average. Philly’s is upper tier at +4.4, and the Eagles also have the motivation of payback from last year’s playoff ouster in Tampa.
Week 4 NFL Best Bet: Let’s lay the 1.5 points with Philly
Washington at Arizona
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)
This past week, after all of the league’s 32 teams wrapped up their first three games, I went in and did a full NFL data update to my rating systems. Prior to this point, I do a series of adjustments based upon last year’s figures. In any case, this is usually a key point for me in getting a better understanding as to the here and now about which teams are strongest/weakest etc. Well, the one team that stood out to me most, in terms of being one of the better teams on a play-by-play basis was the Cardinals.
Against what has been the league’s toughest three-game schedule thus far, the 1-2 Cardinals have posted some very strong numbers. Arizona is outgaining teams 6.37-5.53 in yards per play. That is at a level of the typical best teams in the league. Do I think this is one of the best teams in the league? Well, no, but it does give me validation as to why they are a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday against a Washington team coming off an eye-opening road victory on MNF at Cincinnati.
The Commanders, on the other hand, have some very concerning defensive stats, giving up 6.75 yards per play and yielding 8.1 PPG more to opponents than they score on average. Doing the match on the current numbers, this would put Arizona in line to score 35.4 points on Sunday. Using the opposite math, with Arizona scoring 5.5 points more than its opponents allow on average, it would project an output of 34.8. Essentially, both models project 35 points here for head coach Jonathan Gannon’s team. I can assure you I’d be all over any NFL favorite projected for 35 points each week.
If the math weren’t enough, also consider that re-tread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2014, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 86-135-6 ATS (38.9%). This goes against Washington’s head coach, Dan Quinn. Also, the results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 109-106 ATS (50.7%) in home games but just 92-115 ATS (44.4%) in road/neutral games. It’s a difficult ask for QB Jayden Daniels to come up with another huge effort here.
Week 4 NFL Best Bet: Let’s lay the 3.5 points with Arizona
Seattle at Detroit
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC)
As opposed to Arizona, who has played the league’s toughest three-week schedule, the team on the opposite end of the spectrum having faced the NFL’s easiest slate has been Seattle. At 3-0 SU and 1-1-1 ATS, I really don’t think we know very much at all about this team’s strength level. Monday’s game at Detroit will give us a big leg up in figuring out the answer to that question.
It will certainly be the biggest test for the Seahawks’ defense to date. Despite allowing just 14.3 PPG, they have a defensive effective strength rating of +1.2, which is below average. In other words, they allow 1.2 PPG more than their opponents typically score. A trip to Detroit will be defining, as Seattle is facing a team that plays and scores very well at home (19-7 ATS in the last 26). They are averaging over 30 PPG in their last 24 home contests.
Speaking of home field, this has been a good spot typically for MNF hosts: In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 16-17 SU and 20-13 ATS (60.6%) surge since 2019. Won/lost records have also mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are just 21-38-2 ATS (35.6%) in the last 61 MNF games not matching teams with identical records. It’s also intriguing that despite the undefeated Seattle record, more money at DK has come in on Detroit, a good sign since, in another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 56-40 ATS (58.3%).
Week 4 NFL Best Bet: I’ll lay the MNF points with Detroit (-3.5)
