NFL First Touchdown
Week 4 has arrived, so we have 16 more games to consider for the NFL First Touchdown Scorer in each matchup. Bye weeks begin next week, so it’ll be touch-and-go week-to-week on if we’re missing some of the more proficient teams in this category or lacking some of the big mismatches that make sense to identify. For now, though, we have all 32 teams in play.
As we head into Week 4, there are four teams – 49ers, Chargers, Jaguars, Packers – that have scored first in all three games and four teams – Browns, Chiefs, Jets, Titans – who have not scored first in any of their games. Outside of KC, none of those 0-for teams should surprise you, but maybe even KC shouldn’t without Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, who combined for seven first team TDs last season.
We caught two winners in the article last week with Mike Evans and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I’m happy with that, given that I also picked some Packers, but some dude I’ve genuinely never heard of scored the first TD. At least they did score first, so the handicap was on the right track.
Once again, we’ll take a look at the first TDs by position from last week, including 2024 data for the next 1-2 weeks.
QB: 8 (2024 regular season total: 46)
RB: 24 (2024 total: 190)
WR: 41 (2024 total: 198)
TE: 15 (2024 total: 63)
D/ST: 2 (2024 total: 21)
No TD: 6 (2024 total: 35)
2024 note: One offensive lineman scored a 1st TD last season; they are not listed at sportsbooks, so it was likely graded as ‘No Action’
A 10-10 split between RB and WR is more like what I’ve usually seen tracking this data. Last week, only four RB had the first TD for their teams. This week, things were back to normal a bit, though we did have seven TE first TDs after having eight through the first two weeks.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| 49ers | 3/3 (100%) |
| Chargers | 3/3 (100%) |
| Jaguars | 3/3 (100%) |
| Packers | 3/3 (100%) |
| Bears | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Bills | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Broncos | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Colts | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Commanders | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Eagles | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Falcons | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Giants | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Lions | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Rams | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Seahawks | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Steelers | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Bengals | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Bucs | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Cardinals | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Cowboys | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Dolphins | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Panthers | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Patriots | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Raiders | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Ravens | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Saints | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Texans | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Vikings | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Browns | 0/3 (0%) |
| Chiefs | 0/3 (0%) |
| Jets | 0/3 (0%) |
| Titans | 0/3 (0%) |
For comparison sake, here’s how the perfect and perfectly bad teams ranked last season:
3/3
49ers: T-18th
Chargers: T-15th
Jaguars: T-21st
Packers: T-7th
0/3
Browns: T-29th
Chiefs: 12th
Jets: T-25th
Titans: T-18th
It’s still early. None of this is gospel. After all, the Cardinals scored first in four of their first five games last season and scored on all of their opening possessions in that span. The Ravens were a perfect 6/6 in scoring first to open last season and did so in eight of their first nine games. The Rams scored the first TD just once in their first 10 games and didn’t score on their first possession until Week 14.
Speaking of, the Cardinals, Colts, Chiefs, Saints, Giants, Jets, and Titans are the only team not to score a TD on their opening possession yet. The Bills are the only 3/3 team in that department.
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2024:
| Ravens | 16/19 (84.2%) |
| Eagles | 16/21 (76.2%) |
| Lions | 12/18 (66.7%) |
| Bengals | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Cardinals | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Colts | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Bucs | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Packers | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Vikings | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Texans | 11/19 (57.9%) |
| Chiefs | 11/20 (55%) |
| Falcons | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Patriots | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Commanders | 10/20 (50%) |
| Broncos | 9/18 (50%) |
| Chargers | 9/18 (50%) |
| Bills | 9/20 (45%) |
| 49ers | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Panthers | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Titans | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Seahawks | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Dolphins | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Jaguars | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Saints | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Cowboys | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Jets | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Raiders | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Rams | 6/19 (31.6%) |
| Bears | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Browns | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Giants | 4/17 (23.5%) |
| Steelers | 4/18 (22.2%) |
With that, let’s get to the Week 3 action and look at some big mismatches from 2024 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible. As mentioned, I’ll include 2024 numbers for 1-2 weeks until we get some decent 2025 data.
NFL Week 4 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025 & 2024
NFL Week 4 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025 and 2024
Seahawks (66.7%; 41.2%) at Cardinals (33.3%; 64.7%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Vikings (33.3%; 61.1%) vs. Steelers (66.7%; 22.2%) – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (Dublin)
Commanders (66.7%; 50%) at Falcons (66.7%; 52.9%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Saints (33.3%; 41.2%) at Bills (66.7%; 45%)
Browns (0%; 29.4%) at Lions (66.7%; 66.7%)
Panthers (33.3%; 47.1%) at Patriots (33.3%; 52.9%)
Chargers (100%; 50%) at Giants (66.7%; 23.5%)
Eagles (66.7%; 76.2%) at Buccaneers (33.3%; 61.1%)
Titans (0%; 47.1%) at Texans (33.3%; 57.9%)
Colts (66.7%; 64.7%) at Rams (66.7%; 31.6%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Jaguars (100%; 41.2%) at 49ers (100%; 47.1%)
Ravens (33.3%; 84.2%) at Chiefs (0%; 55%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Bears (66.7%; 29.4%) at Raiders (33.3%; 35.3%)
Packers (100%; 61.1%) at Cowboys (33.3%; 35.3%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Jets (0%; 35.3%) at Dolphins (33.3%; 41.2%) – Monday, 7:15 p.m. ET
Bengals (33.3%; 64.7%) at Broncos (66.7%; 50%) – 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 4 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs +360, Amon-Ra St. Brown +650
Nothing sexy or flashy here, but the Lions seem to be just fine in this department with the switch from Ben Johnson to John Morton. This is just a really good football team with a good offense and a good facilitator of the offense.
Gibbs had the first TD last week for the Lions, his second in consecutive weeks, both of them coming on the scripted drive. Gibbs had six first team TDs last season and five of them opened the scoring. David Montgomery actually had seven and six, but Gibbs had 15 red zone totes thus far and Montgomery only has eight. Montgomery has yet to get above a 39% snap share in the first three weeks of the season. Gibbs has started all three games and if the Lions are going to score on their first possession, it would be his.
St. Brown and Davante Adams lead all receivers in red zone targets with eight thus far. He was second to Ja’Marr Chase last season with 31, eight more than the third-place finisher. In terms of overall targets, St. Brown and Gibbs have combined for 44 of the team’s 92 thus far. Short prices that are warranted, but they are the most likely early scorers.
Los Angeles Chargers: Keenan Allen +950, Oronde Gadsden II +1700
The Giants have scored first in two games this season, but don’t have a TD in the first quarter. The Chargers have scored first in all three games and in the first quarter twice. Early start be damned, I’ll take my chances here. The Giants have actually allowed more TD on the ground than they have through the air, but with short-yardage option Najee Harris out, and a TD distribution of six passing and one rushing, I’ll look at pass catchers.
Allen has six red zone targets and a higher usage rate than Quentin Johnston. Allen has played 128 snaps with 28 targets and 19 catches. Johnston has played 172 snaps with 24 targets and 14 grabs. Allen is more of the possession guy and Johnston is more of the big play guy. Both have three receiving TD, but Johnston’s are 5, 23, 60, while Allen’s are 11, 10, and 20. Sure, Johnston could break a huge play against a bad Giants team, but I’ll take my chances on a slightly bigger price for Allen.
With Gadsden, this is predicated on Will Dissly not being able to play. He didn’t practice on Wednesday and was seen with a big brace on Thursday. Gadsden got his first game action against the Broncos and only played 22 snaps, but was targeted seven times with five catches. In fact, he is the only TE to be targeted in the red zone for the Chargers this season. He’s an enormous target in the scoring areas, so I’ll give him a shot at a big number. The Giants have also allowed eight TD in 10 red zone attempts.
Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze +1000, Caleb Williams +1900
So, there are a couple things here with the Bears. The first is that they have a good play-caller in Ben Johnson. Good play-callers have good scripted drives and draw something up that works in the red zone. The Bears are 6/7 in the red zone thus far. They’ve scored on their first possession twice this season, including the one game where they didn’t score the first TD.
Odunze has two of the first team TDs and Williams has the other. While DJ Moore is virtually an every-down receiver, he only has 16 targets to Odunze’s 27. Odunze has a TD in all three games. Also, Bears QBs are 23-of-27 for 270 yards and three touchdowns in the first quarter this season. So, Johnson’s been really calling some good early plays. As the opponent adjusts, that’s where you see Williams’ numbers fall off.
Speaking of Williams, D’Andre Swift has five rushing attempts in the red zone. Kyle Monangai has two and one target. Williams has four carries for 35 yards in the red zone. Spreading out a defense in the condensed environment inside the 20 can tighten throwing windows, but can also make designed QB runs very effective. Johnson has a mobile QB here, instead of what he had in Detroit with Goff. So, I’ll take this dice roll at a big price to go with Odunze in what looks like an offense centered around him.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article in 2022-23 and the tracker.
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Week 4 content in our Betting Hub.
