Week 4 NFL Odds
One week removed from seeing some major quarterback injuries, we head into the Week 4 NFL schedule without anything new and notable on that front. Now we wait to see if guys like Jayden Daniels, Brock Purdy, and J.J. McCarthy are able to give it a go next week. That doesn’t mean we had a weekend without injuries – far from it – as we have a lot of offensive and defensive skill positions to monitor as the week goes along.
We also still have one game left to go for Week 3 and it looks to be a damn good one between the Lions and Ravens. Zachary Cohen has a Monday Night Football preview for y’all. Check that out after we see what Week 4 has in store.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 4 NFL Odds Report:
Seahawks at Cardinals (-1.5, 43.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
This one is for the birds. No, literally. NFC West rivals square off on the short week here, as the Seahawks ride in with some nice momentum after extending their winning streak to two with a blowout of the Saints. The Cardinals, meanwhile, coughed one up to a Mac Jones two-minute drill. Lookahead lines were not far off of what we have now, but I did find it interesting that Circa opened PK here. Such an impressive final score from Seattle would sway the court of public opinion and I have to be honest, I wouldn’t be shocked if we get back to that number.
Vikings (-1.5, 41.5) vs. Steelers (Dublin)
9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network)
Our first NFL game for 2025 across the pond! Fanduel actually posted Steelers -2.5 last week on this game before gradually moving in the other direction. Circa had Vikings -2 at open and we’re mostly sitting at 1.5 now. I’ll be honest with you, I don’t know which way this line moves. Minnesota racked up 48 points on Cincinnati, but Carson Wentz was only 14-of-20 for 173 yards and was sacked three times. It seems like we were all premature on the Patriots taking a massive step forward this season, but Pittsburgh’s win saw Aaron Rodgers throw for just 139 yards and the Steelers were horribly outgained and only mustered 4.1 yards per play. Pittsburgh scored 21 points and had five takeaways. I feel like Minnesota becomes a bigger favorite, but I don’t think we get to -3.
Eagles (-3, 45.5) at Buccaneers
1 p.m. ET (FOX)
I promised myself I wouldn’t mention losing Rams +3.5 in this article, holy effing hell, how did that happen? Philly is -3 here against a Bucs team that may not have any upright linemen by the end of this week of practice and Mike Evans also hobbled off the field in the win over the Jets. The Eagles, as good teams do, found a way to beat the Rams and found a way to cover. And we all saw it and saw what happened. But, the perception of Tampa Bay and their injuries will absolutely have an impact on this line as the week goes along. We haven’t seen much movement one way or the other here on either side or total. I’m thinking that’ll be true most of the week.
Saints at Bills (-16.5, 47.5)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
According to the Killer Sports database, this is the earliest line of -16 or higher since 2021 when the Bills were favored by 18.5 against the Texans. They won that game 40-0. Would anybody be surprised if we get the same thing here after Buffalo nearly had a misstep against Miami last week? The Bills are on extra rest. The Saints just got humiliated in their first road game. This line was mostly -14.5 in the lookahead markets. I think some brave souls will take New Orleans just because 16.5 is a lot for an NFL game, but not for any reason other than that.
Panthers at Patriots (-4.5, 44)
1 p.m. ET (FOX)
The lookahead line was mostly 5.5 for this game, so we don’t have a big adjustment. Maybe we should, but both teams played very misleading games this past week. The Patriots had five turnovers, including four fumbles. The Panthers won 30-0 in a game where they had 224 total yards and 4.1 yards per play. At time of writing, Circa was the only book showing -5. I think that’s an indicator of where this line is more likely to go. I don’t think -6 is out of the question, if we’re being honest. It doesn’t take a ton to move from 4.5 to 6.
Commanders (-2.5, 45.5) at Falcons
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The rare all-NFC game on CBS. Obviously the status of Daniels will play a big role in how this one moves throughout the course of the week. Circa opened Washington -2 on Sunday evening. The board was a mixed bag between 2.5 and 3. Hard to say much more about this one until the injury picture clears up.
Titans at Texans (-7, 39.5)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Just as we suspected, a battle of 0-3 teams. Wait, what? I think we all could’ve made an educated guess that the Titans would be 0-3, but the Texans are off to a very underwhelming start. They have scored a total of just 38 points in three games. Of course, they’ve also only allowed 51. But, they are still winless. The schedule has been tough thus far with the Rams, Bucs, and Jags. The line implies a “get right game” for Houston, especially when you consider Tennessee has allowed 94 points in three games. A book or two will float out to 7.5 early in the week to see if that encourages Titans money. With a total this low, I think it will and we’ll probably reside at 7 most of the way.
Chargers (-6, 45.5) at Giants
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
An early kick with long travel for the Chargers, who scratched one out against a division rival. Situationally, that seems like a pretty standard-issue fade spot. However, that would mean backing the Giants, who have been held under 10 points twice already. Shortly after losing to the Chiefs, DraftKings reopened the market at -6. What stands out to me about that is Kansas City was a 6-point favorite this past week at the Meadowlands. Based on what we’ve seen so far, are those two teams even? Food for thought.
Jaguars at 49ers (-4, 45)
4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)
Once again, injuries have a big role in where this line goes, as we wait to see if Purdy can give it a go or not. Honestly, Mac Jones has played rather well for the Niners to this point. It is a long trip for Jacksonville off of a division win and a step up in class, as their opponents this season have been the Panthers, Bengals, and Texans. Most of the market was at -3.5 on the lookahead line and pushed up to -4. I think that’s the right way for this line to go and it may not be done.
Colts at Rams (-3.5, 48)
4:05 p.m. (FOX)
I’m not…gonna…mention…it…Look, cover aside, the Rams should have won that game. They were the better team for more than three quarters, but absolutely choked one away. Is there a hangover effect for a veteran team with a great head coach or not? Will the Colts be able to continue their impressive performances against a legitimate opponent? The Broncos were a legitimate opponent, but beating up on the Jags and Titans doesn’t move the needle for me nearly as much. Once again, it’s a long trip, so you factor that into the handicap. But, I think you also have to consider a tough spot for the Rams off back-to-back travel games with the 49ers on deck on a short week. Lots of layers to this line.
Bears at Raiders (-1, 47)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Sometimes I think being an oddsmaker would be really cool. Then I see a game like this and think about the discussions that take place in the risk room about how to line it. DraftKings had a very strong position and one opposite the market on Sunday night with the Bears as a 1.5-point favorite. BetMGM was also Bears -1. Circa, Fanduel, Superbook, and Caesars all had short favorite numbers on Las Vegas. Given the diametrically opposite outcomes in Week 3, I don’t fault any book for taking a position on either side of the favorite ledger. Now let’s see what bettors think.
Packers (-6, 48.5) at Cowboys
8:20 p.m. (NBC)
I’m not sure who had the worse loss in Week 3. Bettors on the Rams or the Packers themselves. They led 10-0 over a hapless and woeful Browns offense before grabbing the doorknob and swinging the door wide open for Cleveland to storm through. As egregious as that was, bettors and bookmakers are undeterred. Green Bay is a similar or bigger favorite than what they were in the lookahead markets depending on the book. Hard to argue with that. I think 6.5 is a given. Getting to 7 is another story.
Jets at Dolphins (-2.5, 44.5)
Monday, 7:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Look, I understand that ratings drive the bus. The NY/NJ area is massive and heavily populated. But, for the love of Jobu, do we really need to see the Jets in primetime? And here we are with an 0-3 team and a QB in the concussion protocol STILL less than a field goal underdog. That may not last, as most books had -2.5 and extra juice on Miami, but it is a hard bet to press ‘Submit’ on.
Bengals at Broncos (-7.5, 44.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
The Jake Browning honeymoon lasted six days in Cincinnati, as the Vikings embarrassed the Bengals in Week 3. The Minnesota defense used their game against Cincy as a rallying point. Can Denver do the same? I would argue that Denver’s defense has been the most disappointing unit so far this season. This is a chance for some redemption and maybe some momentum. If nothing else, after a 48-10 loss, you can bet that the books will be up to their eyelids in Broncos teaser money if we stay at 7.5 or higher here.
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